2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[Kitan]

Wasn't Friesan Fire coming off a 7 week layoff?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Frosted at 20-1 might be a good price. I expect he becomes a bit of a wise guy horse over the next two weeks.

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

Hasn't done anything wrong, I just don't think he's good enough at this stage. Was my key longshot in the Wood and I feel that was the race to play him. Maybe he moved too early, but Frosted easily breezed past. His BRIS LP figs are very close but not high enough historically to make me want to confidently use him underneath.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Hasn't done anything wrong, I just don't think he's good enough at this stage. Was my key longshot in the Wood and I feel that was the race to play him. Maybe he moved too early, but Frosted easily breezed past. His BRIS LP figs are very close but not high enough historically to make me want to confidently use him underneath.

Fair enough, but my point was that 100% of his figures prior to the Wood are based on the Inner track at Aqueduct....75% of which were over an off track.


Food for thought, is all. If the Wood was a conditioner for him (consequently, his best race to date + his longest distance ever run, over a traditionally laid-out surface), he could clearly move up at a huge number. I'll be watching his works and how he handles CD very closely.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Fair enough, but my point was that 100% of his figures prior to the Wood are based on the Inner track at Aqueduct....75% of which were over an off track.


Food for thought, is all. If the Wood was a conditioner for him (consequently, his best race to date + his longest distance ever run, over a traditionally laid-out surface), he could clearly move up at a huge number. I'll be watching his works and how he handles CD very closely.

Oh of course, I'm not doubting his potential to continue to improve. I'm just not sure that improvement would be enough to be a major factor. He could move up as you suggest, as could many others in the field, and run a great race. Problem is in the Derby that might mean only 5th place...

[LARHAGE]

I would think Castellano over Smith on Materiality, no?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

I would think Castellano over Smith on Materiality, no?

Owners are pushing for Smith (there's a New Mexico tie-in); Pletcher prefers Castellano.

[Kasept]

5/2/15 (CD): Kentucky Derby (10f)

1. International Star (Maker/Mena)
2. Dortmund (Baffert/M. Garcia)
3. Carpe Diem (Pletcher/Velazquez)
4. American Pharoah (Baffert/V. Espinoza)
5. Frosted (McLaighlin/Rosario)
6. Mubtaahij (de Kock/Soumillon)
7. Materiality (Pletcher/Castellano)
8. El Kabeir (Terranova/Borel)
9. Upstart (Violette/J. Ortiz)
10. Far Right (Moquett/Smith)

11. Itsaknockout (Pletcher/Saez)
12. Firing Line (S. Callaghan/Stevens)
13. Danzig Moon (Casse/Leparoux)
14. War Story (Amoss/Talamo)
15. Tencendur (Weaver/Franco)
16. Stanford (Pletcher/Geroux?)
17. Mr. Z (Lukas/Vasquez)
18. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Cassidy/TBA)
19. Bolo (Gaines/Bejarano)
20. Keen Ice (Romans/Desormeaux)
-------------
21. Frammento (Zito)
22. Bold Conquest (Asmussen)
23. Firespike (Maker)
24. Toasting Master (Romans)

[Kasept]

UPCOMING UNDERCARD STAKES PROBABLES

The following is an early rundown of known possible starters in Derby Week stakes races, according to assistant racing secretary and stakes coordinator Dan Bork:

$400,000 ALYSHEBA (GII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Call Me George, Honor Code, Noble Bird, Ride On Curlin. Possible: Den’s Legacy.

$300,000 LA TROIENNE (GI) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – America, Frivolous, Molly Morgan, My Miss Sophia, Pearl Turn, Sheer Drama, Stopchargingmaria, Wedding Toast. Possible: Interest Free, Tiz Windy.

$200,000 EIGHT BELLES (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Ekati’s Phaeton, Fancy and Flashy, Lavender Chrissie, Mizz Money, Promise Me Silver, Streetheart, Super Saks, Taylor S.

$150,000 EDGEWOOD PRESENTED BY FORCHT BANK (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Lady Zuzu, Pangburn, Quality Rocks. Possible: B Rockett, Sweet Opportunity, Whimsicality.

$150,000 TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ), Buster Rose, Channel Marker, Good Deed, Heitai, Positive Side, Power Alert (AUS), Something Extra, Undrafted.

$500,000 WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Chocolate Ride, Finnegans Wake, Seek Again, Umgiyo (AUS).

$500,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Bayern, C. Zee, Pants On Fire, Private Zone. Possible: The Big Beast.

$300,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS DISTAFF TURF MILE PRESENTED BY LONGINES (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Coffee Clique, I’m Already Sexy, Lady Lara (IRE), Maid On a Mission, Personal Diary, Sandiva (IRE), Solid Appeal, Strike Charmer, Tepin.

$300,000 HUMANA DISTAFF (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Classic Point, Dame Dorothy, Judy the Beauty, Princess Violet, Sweet Reason, Sweet Whiskey, You Bought Her. Possible: Clearly Confused.

$250,000 AMERICAN TURF PRESENTED BY RAM TRUCKS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – A Lot, Conquest Typhoon, Firespike, Force the Pass, Indianaughty, Metaboss, Tuba, Wireless Future, World Approval. Possible: Royal Son.

$200,000 PAT DAY MILE PRESENTED BY LG&E AND KU (GIII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Competitive Edge, Conquest Bigluck E, Hillbilly Royalty, Pain and Misery, Toasting Master, Where’s the Moon.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

He's a toss for me. He was closer to the moderate pace and still unable to hold off Frosted. He will be getting a new jockey and there's a chance he bounces.

[Kasept]

WEEKEND WORKOUT VIDEO

DORTMUND (4/18) http://www.hrtv.com/videos/workout-dortmund-41815/

Worst news comes from last of 11 Derby workers
By Jay Privman

ARCADIA, Calif. – When it came to Kentucky Derby workouts on Saturday, they saved the worst news for last.

One Lucky Dane, second last time out in the Santa Anita Derby, was taken off the Kentucky Derby trail after suffering a condylar fracture to his left front ankle in a workout here at Santa Anita.

One Lucky Dane was pulled up following the work – he was timed in 59.20 seconds for five furlongs -- by jockey Rafael Bejarano, who said One Lucky Dane was favoring his left front leg. He was given a ride back to trainer Bob Baffert’s barn in a horse ambulance, and got off the van just fine, but was missing his left front shoe.

As One Lucky Dane was walked to cool out, he began to favor, just slightly, his left front. Before radiographs were taken by Dr. Vince Baker, Baffert said regardless of what they revealed, One Lucky Dane was off the Derby trail.

Radiographs later revealed the fracture. Baffert said surgery would be performed, and screws inserted to aid healing. The chances of him racing again are good.

“This is just a reminder of how things can go south in a hurry,” Baffert said.

The defection of One Lucky Dane means Madefromlucky is now in the top 20 for points should his connections desire to run in the Derby on May 2. Keen Ice is now 21st on the list, followed by Frammento.

One Lucky Dane was the last of 11 Derby contenders who worked at five different venues on Saturday. The other works went off without a hitch.

Earlier at Santa Anita, Dortmund, who beat One Lucky Dane in the Santa Anita Derby, and Firing Line both drilled.

At Palm Beach Downs, trainer Todd Pletcher worked Itsaknockout, Materiality, and Stanford before jumping on a plane to Kentucky, where Pletcher worked Carpe Diem later in the morning at Keeneland.

Danzig Moon, International Star, and Keen Ice worked at Churchill Downs, while Tencendur worked at Belmont Park.

One Lucky Dane came on the track after the last of three renovation breaks. Soon after entering the track, and well before he was to work, a horse got loose near the finish and dashed up the stretch, missing One Lucky Dane and his workmate.

One Lucky Dane then continued to jog up the stretch, and began his work on the backstretch at the five-furlong pole, breaking off about three lengths behind his company.

Bejarano had to urge One Lucky Dane to get past his company, which he did, but a quarter-mile later, Bejarano brought him to a halt and hopped off.

“This is why I have white hair,” Baffert muttered.

Bejarano rode with One Lucky Dane in the horse ambulance back to Baffert’s barn.

“His left-front went completely down,” Bejarano said.

“You did the right thing,” Baffert told him.

A little more than an hour earlier, Dortmund worked five furlongs in 58.80 seconds under jockey Martin Garcia, a time that equaled the best of the morning among 59 at the distance. Dortmund, also trained by Baffert, broke off behind one workmate, then had another range up outside him near the top of the lane, and he put away both tag-team rivals.

“It was good experience for him,” said Garcia, who has the mount in the Derby. “In between horses, no problem. Got a little dirt, no problem. I’m very happy.”

Firing Line, with jockey Gary Stevens up, broke off about 20 seconds after Dortmund for a five-furlong work that was timed officially in 1:00.40. He started about three lengths behind his workmate and kicked clear late in an impressive drill.

“It was an ideal work,” said his trainer, Simon Callaghan, who wanted Firing Line to sit behind his company, which he did.

Both Dortmund and Firing Line are scheduled to have their final works at Santa Anita next Saturday before flying to Kentucky on Sunday, April 26.

At Palm Beach Downs, Materiality and Stanford worked together both received times of 1:00.52 for five furlongs, while Itsaknockout went four furlongs in 48.17 seconds. All three are scheduled to fly to Kentucky on Tuesday and go to Churchill Downs for their final drills.

Materiality was particularly impressive Saturday, as he was last weekend.

“I thought it was another very good work,” Pletcher said. “A nice, steady, aggressive five-eighths; he seemed to be well in hand throughout. The horse continues to train really well. You have to respect how difficult the race is, but at the same time you have an undefeated horse who seems to be training super.”

Carpe Diem worked a half-mile in 48 seconds under John Velazquez and galloped out five furlongs in 1:00.40 and six furlongs in 1:13.80.

“I thought he worked super,” said Pletcher, who said Carpe Diem would have his final work next weekend at either Keeneland or Churchill.

John Velazquez has to choose between Carpe Diem and Materiality. Javier Castellano and Mike Smith have been mentioned by Pletcher as possible replacements for whoever Velazquez doesn’t choose, though Smith is in play for Bolo and Far Right, too.

At Churchill Downs, International Star worked five furlongs in 1:01.80 for trainer Mike Maker while easily besting a workmate.

Danzig Moon blazed five furlongs in 58 seconds while in company for trainer Mark Casse. He finished about a neck behind his workmate.

Keen Ice worked alone for trainer Dale Romans and got an official clocking of 1:13.20 for six furlongs.

At Belmont, Tencendur worked a half-mile in 47.16 seconds for trainer George Weaver. Jockey Manny Franco was aboard, and could have the mount in the Derby. Jose Ortiz, who rode Tencendur in the Wood, rides Upstart in the Derby.

Tencendur was scheduled to leave New York by van on Sunday and is scheduled to have his final Derby workout next weekend at Churchill Downs.

--additional reporting by David Grening, Byron King, Marty McGee, and Mike Welsch

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by tywizard

He's a toss for me. He was closer to the moderate pace and still unable to hold off Frosted. He will be getting a new jockey and there's a chance he bounces.

I can get tossing horses like Carpe Diem, who is likely going to be grossly over bet. But this horse at like 30 or 35-1 can move forward. A few good points have been made in this thread about him.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

I agree with you, btw. Especially at the 60-1 being offered offshore.

--Dunbar

[Arletta]

Stink eye from Dortmund today

11083974_10155421474690720_7659398229194603339_o.jpg

[jnunan4759]

tywizard, what should the % be ? I know it's 100% plus takeout which I think is 20% to 24% here.

I think a 145% line is highly dubious as to the motive. I think it's fishy. Maybe essentially it's accurate in ranking, but it serves to make people think they are getting bargains, when they aren't. I think it's deceptive.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by jnunan4759

tywizard, what should the % be ? I know it's 100% plus takeout which I think is 20% to 24% here.

I think a 145% line is highly dubious as to the motive. I think it's fishy. Maybe essentially it's accurate in ranking, but it serves to make people think they are getting bargains, when they aren't. I think it's deceptive.

I thought it's 100 + takeout + # of starters. Don't know off hand what CD's WPS rake is, but it seems like 145 is a fair par

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by tywizard

There are 19 listed entries and two shouldn't even be listed (imperia and Ocean Knight)...Even if I make the 20th horse 99-1 this still comes to 143%.

Originally Posted by jnunan4759

tywizard, what should the % be ? I know it's 100% plus takeout which I think is 20% to 24% here.

I think a 145% line is highly dubious as to the motive. I think it's fishy. Maybe essentially it's accurate in ranking, but it serves to make people think they are getting bargains, when they aren't. I think it's deceptive.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I thought it's 100 + takeout + # of starters. Don't know off hand what CD's WPS rake is, but it seems like 145 is a fair par

You want that number to be small, not big. The amount above 100% is closely related to track take, but not quite the same. It doesn't have anything to do with the number of horses, but every horse that might be in the race should be included in the line.

(The number 143% corresponds to a 30% track takeout.)


Here's what you do to calculate that number if you have an odds line.

1. Convert each horse's odds to a "fair" win probability. For example, if a horse is even money, to be "fair" it should win 50% of the time. So the "fair" win probability is 50%.

If a horse is 3-1, then the "fair" win probability is 25%. (because with 3-1 odds, if you win 1 out of 4 times, you'll break even.

The general rule is this:
if the odds are "fair", then WinProbability = 1/(1+Odds)

2. Add up all the "WinProbabilities". If the line is completely fair, it would add to 100%. If the odds have been set lower than fair odds, then the total of the WinProbabilities will be greater than 100%. The 17.5% track takeout at CD will cause the "WinProbabilites" (calclulated from a race's closing odds) to sum to 121%

When a futures line is as big as 143%, it's pathetic. It's like betting into a 30% track take. (And the fact that Bovada's didn't include every possible entrant makes it even worse.)

--Dunbar

[Sightseek]

One Lucky Dane out of Derby after being vanned off the track today.

He is going for radiographs.