15 years....

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 07-26-2010, 07:30 AM

And still no A. P. Indy offspring has won a race at Saratoga at the distance of 6 furlongs or shorter.

Two have already failed this meet - including first time starter Risk A Chance who failed to hit the board as the even money favorite going 5.5 furlongs yesterday.

I would put the collective record of A. P. Indy offspring in races at 6fs or less at Saratoga at somewhere between 0-for-50 to 0-for-80 ... with at least a dozen beaten favorites and probably 30 or so beaten horses at 4/1 or less.

On the other hand .. his offspring have collected over 100 wins at Saratoga over the last 15 years - and I'm positive he's the only sire who can say that.

Danzig · #2 07-26-2010, 07:54 AM

i was amazed when the hrtv analyst put up his pick four yesterday that started with race 2, and had singled risk a chance. i told my son, he singled a 2 yo by ap indy, at that distance??

The Indomitable DrugS · #3 07-26-2010, 08:12 AM

Considering that the horse did manage to run about a 40 Beyer, was only beaten slightly less than double digit lengths, and didn't miss finishing 3rd by much .... I think she'll probably end up being Champion NY Bred 3yo filly.

The Indomitable DrugS · #4 07-31-2010, 09:33 AM

Steve Asmussen A. P. Indy debuter Astrology goes in todays 6th race.

This one has a few things going for it on the bottom of the pedigree - it's a half sibling to a horse who won it's debut going 4.5 furlongs at KEE by 7 lengths - the mother's win came at 5.5fs, and several of the workouts identically match Wine Police and it would appear as those two have worked in company more than once.

About 12 jumps or so in, so many of these young A. P. Indy horses come right off of the bit in sprints. A lot of riders like to hustle away and settle by that point in these races at Saratoga.

I remember a NY Bred A. P. Indy of Husion's that was bet to 1/2 favoritism in his debut at Saratoga. The horse broke fine and seemed to be in a great spot - and all of a sudden the horse comes off of the steel and Jerry Bailey is pushing and shoving like hell - even going to the whip repeatedly and in all out drive about 1.5 furlongs into a 6 furlong sprint. All of the other riders are chilly and as you're watching this you're like "this favorite is going to stop and get beat 30 if he isn't eased entirely" .. but despite all of that - the horse keeps grinding to finish 2nd despite being in an all-out drive for almost every step of the race after breaking well and having a great early spot.

The horse who won the race was a Kat DaMassi horse who lost his next 20+ races, many at the 5K N2L claiming level at Philly Park. That horse never won again. The A. P. Indy debuter that finished 2nd made almost 400K in his career. The chart comment for him simply said "trouble with footing" He ran one more time at 6fs later in that meet and finished off the board as the favorite.

Sightseek · #5 07-31-2010, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Steve Asmussen A. P. Indy debuter Astrology goes in todays 6th race.

This one has a few things going for it on the bottom of the pedigree - it's a half sibling to a horse who won it's debut going 4.5 furlongs at KEE by 7 lengths - the mother's win came at 5.5fs, and several of the workouts identically match Wine Police and it would appear as those two have worked in company more than once.

About 12 jumps or so in, so many of these young A. P. Indy horses come right off of the bit in sprints. A lot of riders like to hustle away and settle by that point in these races at Saratoga.

I remember a NY Bred A. P. Indy of Husion's that was bet to 1/2 favoritism in his debut at Saratoga. The horse broke fine and seemed to be in a great spot - and all of a sudden the horse comes off of the steel and Jerry Bailey is pushing and shoving like hell - even going to the whip repeatedly and in all out drive about 1.5 furlongs into a 6 furlong sprint. All of the other riders are chilly and as you're watching this you're like "this favorite is going to stop and get beat 30 if he isn't eased entirely" .. but despite all of that - the horse keeps grinding to finish 2nd despite being in an all-out drive for almost every step of the race after breaking well and having a great early spot.

The horse who won the race was a Kat DaMassi horse who lost his next 20+ races, many at the 5K N2L claiming level at Philly Park. That horse never won again. The A. P. Indy debuter that finished 2nd made almost 400K in his career. The chart comment for him simply said "trouble with footing" He ran one more time at 6fs later in that meet and finished off the board as the favorite.

So are you saying history can be made today or we should bet against it?

The Indomitable DrugS · #6 07-31-2010, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

So are you saying history can be made today or we should bet against it?

I wouldn't bet on it ... even if it was live on the board like so many others have been ..that's for sure.

There are also two very pricey Bernardini debuters in there - A. P. Indy's finest son perhaps - and he was off the board as a 3yo going 6f at GP in his debut before freaking when the distances increased.

It will happen eventually - but not with my money.

In terms of handicapping that race ... you have to let the board guide you. As it stands until the board starts to talk...

The 10 is best. The 4 is second best.

The 1 and 8 can't possibly win. They are debuters who certainly didn't do anything impressive undertack at the sales.

The 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 9 all are very nicely bred horses with good connections - atleast one of them will probably end up being a very serious horse - but you want to bet against 5 of the 6 unless they are rabidly live on the board... the Indian Charlie debuter would be usable if he's just live instead of rabidly live.

zippyneedsawin · #7 07-31-2010, 09:44 AM

The AP Indy in yesterday's 6th (Believe in AP) finished well to place 2nd at 8.5F on the turf. Didn't show much in 5f debut on the dirt at Belmont.. no surprise to see the improvement with the additional distance.

Sightseek · #8 07-31-2010, 02:14 PM

3/2 Astrology

Betsy · #9 07-31-2010, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

3/2 Astrology

I know he's a 1/2 to speedy Lunarpal, but I just have a gut feeling (even though he's working very well) that it won't be his day.

None of the other firsters are taking a lot of $$$..........but I didn't expect the Bernardinis to. Hopefully they'll outrun their odds.