I'll Have Another's value as a stallion if he sweeps the Triple Crown

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pba1817

What will his value be if he sweeps Triple Crown, adds some late season G'1s and topples the BC Classic?

The older horses sure aren't much to get excited about this year... I can see this happening.

Whirlaway is the only horse in history to officially sweep the Triple Crown Series and win the Travers Stakes.

So -- that would be a grand slam. As obviously would the Breeders Cup Classic on his home track at Santa Anita.

However, at the end of the day, this horse will never have a fashionable stallion pedigree. He will never have "looks" ... and if I'll Have Another really did have looks ... he wouldn't have only fetched $11,000 as a yearling at auction -- and re-sell again for peanuts after his under-tack work at OBS where he showed respectable speed.

Handicapping the chances of any horse as a sire is always going to be a guessing game -- regardless of what anyone says. That's why I think you have to take the 'a chain is only as strong as its weakest link' approach. A horse like a Bernardini or A. P. Indy was always a safer bet because he had no weak links. Horses like Skip Away and Silver Charm were two of the best race horses I've seen since 1990 ... and they both had unfashionable breeding and sold cheaply at OBS 2yo auctions like I'll Have Another did.

I suppose if factors like his looks and pedigree are neglected because of race accomplishments -- it's possible he could demand WAY more money than I think is reasonable. Doesn't mean he can't be a good sire either...but the odds aren't as much in your favor.

[Danzig]

I think that was my point. He will command far more than what is reasonable....the trick is what happens after the faols start dropping, hitting sales, etc.

Fupeg for instance has impeccable looks, breeding, and won the biggest race in north america, but is perceived as a failure at stud. They can have everything go their way (which is why i mentioned plugged nickel earlier) and be a dismal stallion. Id have to think if you had to bet thok youd go with bode ahead of iha for who will succeed. But therea no giuarantees...look at tapit, who thought hed turn out like he did?

[HaloWishingwell]

Until Bodemeister and Creative Cause start winning some black type races this discussion is a no contest.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Until Bodemeister and Creative Cause start winning some black type races this discussion is a no contest.

You realize that both of them are GI winners, right?

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You realize that both of them are GI winners, right?

I realize that. But winning the Norfolk Stakes for one and the Arkansas Derby for the other most likely is not going to get them a higher stud fee than IHA at this point.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

I realize that. But winning the Norfolk Stakes for one and the Arkansas Derby for the other most likely is not going to get them a higher stud fee than IHA at this point.

Here are all the ungelded males with 10 or more Grade 1 wins:

Spectacular Bid - 14 Grade 1 wins
Affirmed - 14 Grade 1 wins
Cigar - 11 Grade 1 wins
Skip Away - 10 Grade 1 wins

Spectacular Bid was syndicated for a then-record $22 million. Skip Away was syndicated for $18. Affirmed was syndicated for $14.4 million. Cigar was reportedly going to be syndicated for a record $75 million by Coolmore.

Skip Away and Spectacular Bid sired a bunch of complete goats. Cigar shot blanks. The breeding shed was the only place where Affirmed couldn't compete with Alydar.

[Calzone Lord]

The dam of Spectacular Bid was a fast sprinter on the No. Cal fair circuit.

The dam of Cigar was a 0-for-7 maiden.

The dam of Affirmed was 23-5-2-3 and made 21K in earnings.

The dam of Skip Away was 37-5-1-6 and made 66K

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

I realize that. But winning the Norfolk Stakes for one and the Arkansas Derby for the other most likely is not going to get them a higher stud fee than IHA at this point.

They both have good breeding and black type...and many still think bode is the better horse. Just like some thought alydar was better, or easy goer. Of course alydar won the battle of the barn, easy goer on the other hand didnt.

[PeteMugg]

While Bode and CC may prove to better sires, those with deep pockets won't let the first Triple Crown winner in thirty plus years go cheap. I'm sure they will be willing to gamble that IHA could be the real deal off the track, as well.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

I realize that. But winning the Norfolk Stakes for one and the Arkansas Derby for the other most likely is not going to get them a higher stud fee than IHA at this point.

Barring premature retirements, I bet Bode will have a higher stud fee. Especially in five years.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Whirlaway is the only horse in history to officially sweep the Triple Crown Series and win the Travers Stakes.

So -- that would be a grand slam. As obviously would the Breeders Cup Classic on his home track at Santa Anita.

However, at the end of the day, this horse will never have a fashionable stallion pedigree. He will never have "looks" ... and if I'll Have Another really did have looks ... he wouldn't have only fetched $11,000 as a yearling at auction -- and re-sell again for peanuts after his under-tack work at OBS where he showed respectable speed.

Handicapping the chances of any horse as a sire is always going to be a guessing game -- regardless of what anyone says. That's why I think you have to take the 'a chain is only as strong as its weakest link' approach. A horse like a Bernardini or A. P. Indy was always a safer bet because he had no weak links. Horses like Skip Away and Silver Charm were two of the best race horses I've seen since 1990 ... and they both had unfashionable breeding and sold cheaply at OBS 2yo auctions like I'll Have Another did.

I suppose if factors like his looks and pedigree are neglected because of race accomplishments -- it's possible he could demand WAY more money than I think is reasonable. Doesn't mean he can't be a good sire either...but the odds aren't as much in your favor.

In my years of following this stuff, I've noticed that there is one thing than can offset a weak pedigree when it comes to making a stallion.

That would be high speed with a great turn of foot. Accompanied by the ability to be really good at a young age. This could easily explain low-bred horses like Candy Ride, Indian Charlie, Slew, etc. becoming top level stallions.

Skip Away really didn't show blazing speed until later in his career. I think the only horse I was badly off on when assessing his stallion potential was Gentlemen.

Barbaro too I guess, but that's different. I thought he was going to be the next Seattle Slew or AP Indy as a sire, when I saw him as a 2yo.