Battaglia's tentative pre-draw Derby ML

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

I know it's a thankless job, but I don't know how he could have 6 horses at 50-1 when last year not a single horse was higher than 40-1. Also, the favorites seem too short, maybe put Bodemeister at 9-2 or 5, UR at 6 and adjust the longshots down accordingly.

I think this is a year where we return to realistic odds on the longshots... but then again, who knows... the volume in the pool is so large.

Making a horse 30-1 instead of 50-1 starts to really increase odds on some of the lower horses, which is tough to do this year.

[justindew]

I don't think there is a chance in hell that either Bodemeister or Union Rags will be under 5-1. I'd say even 6-1 would be low. Lookin' At Lucky was over 6-1 as the favorite. And only two others were under 10-1 that year (Super Saver and Sidney's Candy).

[slotdirt]

Hard to envision we'll have a Big Brown (2-1) or even a Friesan Fire (3.8-1?!?!?!?!? - sorry, had to throw that in there for laughs) in the 2012 Derby.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by justindew

I don't think there is a chance in hell that either Bodemeister or Union Rags will be under 5-1. I'd say even 6-1 would be low. Lookin' At Lucky was over 6-1 as the favorite. And only two others were under 10-1 that year (Super Saver and Sidney's Candy).

6-1 because he drew the rail. He would have been 4-1 or less in the 5-20 posts.

[PatCummings]

Unless you are only betting in the win pool, the odds are meaningless for assessing legitimate value. I think you get some much more realistic value on the "longshots" in the exotics pool compared to the win pool, where a load of the novice money ends up going.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by 3kings

6-1 because he drew the rail. He would have been 4-1 or less in the 5-20 posts.

Good point, but there were still only three horses under 10-1.

[Antitrust32]

I'm starting to really like Hanson.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I'm starting to really like Hanson.

At 10-1 or higher, me too.

I prefer Nelson, but Hanson will do.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I'm starting to really like Hanson.

Which one?

I always liked #17.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by 3kings

6-1 because he drew the rail. He would have been 4-1 or less in the 5-20 posts.

I think he would have won if he drew 5-10

[richard]

The odds look right in the ball park.