Goldikova: Lost a step or as good as ever?

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...tter-than-ever

Okay, so this is the first I'm hearing that she's as good as she was for previous attempts. Freddy Head is saying bah humbug to anybody who thinks otherwise. The DRF rundown of the pre-entries mentioned that she'd lost a step as have guests on ATR. Is Freddy being sentimental, or is there reason to think he's right?

You'd be a fool if you don't use her in multi-race plays, she'll be a "B" for me in those...but it's hard to ignore that her best peformances have ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY been in the past. You have to ask yourself if you think she re-finds that form in this race, against some European competition that has pointed to this race a long way out (Strong Suit), and one who found his best form last time and had that win franked substantially (Byword). With an in-form Courageous Cat and the late kick Gio Ponti showed last time...I think you could argue this is definitely the best field she's faced in the last four runnings, all at a time when she seems to have regressed just slightly.

I say...tip your hat if she wins, bet with 1.5 fists against, hedge slightly in multi-race plays, using her defensively.

[King Glorious]

To my untrained eye, it looks like she's lost a step or two this year. It isn't just that she's lost a couple but how she's lost them. But you also have to look at who she's lost to and there is nobody of that caliber in here so her lost step or two or even three should still be more than enough to overwhelm this group. As long as she has a good trip and runs her race, I don't see her losing and if she is to lose, it won't be because someone was better than her.

[RockHardTen1985]

Toss. She can beat me again I guess.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by pba1817

Play against IMO...

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Toss. She can beat me again I guess.

Here's what you guys gotta ask yourselves- Whether she has lost a step or not, do you wanna have a losing bet in that race because you were foolish enough to leave her off your tickets/wagers/whatever? Let's face it... The best she went up against last year (in the BC Mile) was Gio Ponti. You know she's been running against much better across the pond.

Whether she's lost a step or not, I'm not gonna risk losing a bet by trying to beat her. If you're unsure... maybe the Mile is the one race to sit out betting-wise, and just sit back and watch and hope the old girl has another awesome performance in her. For me, I don't know enough about the other entrants yet to make up my mind whether I'm gonna bet it or not.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Here's what you guys gotta ask yourselves- Whether she has lost a step or not, do you wanna have a losing bet in that race because you were foolish enough to leave her off your tickets/wagers/whatever? Let's face it... The best she went up against last year (in the BC Mile) was Gio Ponti. You know she's been running against much better across the pond.

Whether she's lost a step or not, I'm not gonna risk losing a bet by trying to beat her. If you're unsure... maybe the Mile is the one race to sit out betting-wise, and just sit back and watch and hope the old girl has another awesome performance in her. For me, I don't know enough about the other entrants yet to make up my mind whether I'm gonna bet it or not.

I have no problem tossing her in the pick 3's. Beating her turns your payout to an overlay, period. This group she is facing is strong enough. The Euro's look good. Mott's horse is good, and I'll give Mr. Commons a shot. I think the risk is worth the potential reward.

[pmayjr]

Fair, enough... but were you saying the same any of the last 3 years? As I said, I really haven't looked at the other entrants enough in depth yet to really make up my mind. I might end up agreeing with you. It's just she's the known commodity, and without looking that hard it's pretty fair to say every year that what she faces in Europe is usually is as strong if not stronger than what she faces when she comes here.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Fair, enough... but were you saying the same any of the last 3 years? As I said, I really haven't looked at the other entrants enough in depth yet to really make up my mind. I might end up agreeing with you. It's just she's the known commodity, and without looking that hard it's pretty fair to say every year that what she faces in Europe is usually is as strong if not stronger than what she faces when she comes here.

I have tossed her the last 2 years.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Toss. She can beat me again I guess.

This is one reason I'm glad you're back. Right or wrong, there is no waffling by you.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

This is one reason I'm glad you're back. Right or wrong, there is no waffling by you.

To be honest I have been cold since after week 1 of Toga. My entire handle for the BC program might be under $150. My opinion has sucked latley, check out todays selection thread. Goldi will likely win easily and Ill rip up my 5-4-3 $60 pick 3.

[trackrat59]

Anyone have her recent sheet numbers? I would like to know how those look.

Agree, you have to use her in your tix. That about sums it up.

[Thunder Gulch]

She may have lost a step, but this may be the weakest field she has faced. It reminds me of a buddy of mine when we were discussing Ouija Board opting for the FM Turf over the open Turf..."She's going down in class for this race". You could make the same argument for Goldlikova here. She doesn't need her absolute best to win it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by trackrat59

Anyone have her recent sheet numbers? I would like to know how those look.

Agree, you have to use her in your tix. That about sums it up.

She ran the same exact schedule this year as last... and on Thorograph, she hasn't lost a step.

Track 2010 2011
LCH 1.5 2.5
ASC 1.5 0.75
DEA 1.5 1.75
DEA 2.25 1.75
LCH 1.5 0.75

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by philcski

She ran the same exact schedule this year as last... and on Thorograph, she hasn't lost a step.

Track 2010 2011
LCH 1.5 2.5
ASC 1.5 0.75
DEA 1.5 1.75
DEA 2.25 1.75
LCH 1.5 0.75

she gained a 1/4 pt. Wow

Though don't think she's got a chance to equal last year's BC TG# of 2neg

Would love to see her win again but my tix as well will be against her.

[somerfrost]

For the first time in several years, I won't single her race in my multi-race tickets but I will be using her in my exacta. I fully expect her to win.

[Indian Charlie]

Historically speaking, I feel that she is a tad bit overrated.

Despite what her trainer says, I'd still take Miesque over her.

[trackrat59]

Originally Posted by philcski

She ran the same exact schedule this year as last... and on Thorograph, she hasn't lost a step.

Track 2010 2011
LCH 1.5 2.5
ASC 1.5 0.75
DEA 1.5 1.75
DEA 2.25 1.75
LCH 1.5 0.75

Many thanks philcski!

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

To my untrained eye, it looks like she's lost a step or two this year. It isn't just that she's lost a couple but how she's lost them. But you also have to look at who she's lost to and there is nobody of that caliber in here so her lost step or two or even three should still be more than enough to overwhelm this group. As long as she has a good trip and runs her race, I don't see her losing and if she is to lose, it won't be because someone was better than her.

In one step, you say you have an untrained eye, and also assert the caliber of her competition here is weaker...can't have it both ways.

I'm absolutely, 100% confident in stating that from top to bottom (that includes Compliance Officer), the collection of horses in the BC Mile are better than any of the individual fields she faced this year...all of them. While there may have been one or two very good horses she went up against this year, there are 9 Grade/Group 1 winners in the field.

There are some pretty unaccomplished plodders that make up the also-rans in her other races. Dream Ahead, who beat her last time, ran her down to get up, had two fifth place finishes in attempts over more than 6 furlongs, beaten 12 lengths. The Prix Foret was his first win beyond 6, and the third place finisher was making his fourth lifetime start off a 173 day layoff.

Again, not going out on a crazy limb here, I'm including her, and won't be shocked with a win, but a loss is WAY more likely in this field, this year, now more than ever...This is absolutely the best field she's seen this year, and would argue, in any of her previous BC Mile appearances.

[RockHardTen1985]

Well said Pat.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

In one step, you say you have an untrained eye, and also assert the caliber of her competition here is weaker...can't have it both ways.

I'm absolutely, 100% confident in stating that from top to bottom (that includes Compliance Officer), the collection of horses in the BC Mile are better than any of the individual fields she faced this year...all of them. While there may have been one or two very good horses she went up against this year, there are 9 Grade/Group 1 winners in the field.

There are some pretty unaccomplished plodders that make up the also-rans in her other races. Dream Ahead, who beat her last time, ran her down to get up, had two fifth place finishes in attempts over more than 6 furlongs, beaten 12 lengths. The Prix Foret was his first win beyond 6, and the third place finisher was making his fourth lifetime start off a 173 day layoff.

Again, not going out on a crazy limb here, I'm including her, and won't be shocked with a win, but a loss is WAY more likely in this field, this year, now more than ever...This is absolutely the best field she's seen this year, and would argue, in any of her previous BC Mile appearances.

Pat, I think youre doing Dream Ahead a bit of disservice there. He's a 5 time G1 winner, champion sprinter and I would easily forgive him the 2 other poor runs at 7f+ this year (plus this race is run at slightly less than 7f!). They also finished miles clear of the 3rd , it was a quality performance by both and I couldnt say at all that she has lost a step. This certainly in my opinion was her best prep race for the BC Mile than her 3 previous victories..

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Pat, I think youre doing Dream Ahead a bit of disservice there. He's a 5 time G1 winner, champion sprinter and I would easily forgive him the 2 other poor runs at 7f+ this year (plus this race is run at slightly less than 7f!). They also finished miles clear of the 3rd , it was a quality performance by both and I couldnt say at all that she has lost a step. This certainly in my opinion was her best prep race for the BC Mile than her 3 previous victories..

I don't think I'm doing a disservice to Dream Ahead...a very quality animal. A great value in that race, and a horse who is one to look forward to when back next year.

I think you have to question the balance of her competition.