Look Out, Quality Road

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

So much for DrugS golden rail @ PID in the 1st -- the wipe-out horse blows by the rail running 2, who I bet.

I'm not twisting dynamics. I'm using dynamics to make a very strong case against the horse going 10F. He has the natural speed to control a race going up to 8F or so -- 9 at GP (or other speed favoring tracks). In other words, he's fast/good enough to not only set the pace (or chase a fast one) but also to repel any bids, whether early or late -- though, most recently, these came in the form of a premature move by a sprinter and a late run by, essentially, a plug; and he didn't exactly beat anything good down at GP. But I digress. Anyway, he has yet to show this same ability going 10F. I realize that Summer Bird, highly regarded by so many here, beat him both times last year but these were both races with a minimal number of moves. Doubtful we get a similar scenario in the CLASSIC, where, hopefully, there'll be a large field and, thus, plenty of chances for plenty of IDIOT moves. And, JV is not exactly the type that will put him INSIDE and wait patiently to make a final run. Know what I mean? Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's not an unfair argument, but are you saying he isn't the best horse ( even at the distance ) or his superiority isn't enough to overcome a likely difficult dynamic?

Given the likelihood now of Rail Trip running in either ( or both ) the Whitney and Woodward, and given that Dutrow also understands the value of speed, as well as his main opponent's strongsuits, shouldn't you also now consider him vulnerable at 1 1/8 as well. I'm not saying Rail Trip is as good as Quality Road, but he is of obvious quality, and he could present the obstacle that didn't exist in the races you mentioned, and soften him up for others.

I think that your main problem isn't so much the distance, though obviously his possible achilles heel could be exposed the farther they go, but that you feel he has been able to dictate races. That could change...and on a very fair racetrack.

[johnny pinwheel]

[quote=the_fat_man;668693 Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.[/QUOTE]

how come this guy seems to make sense, alot? unlike alot of others. i bet quality road last year at 11 to 1...he scratched after throwing a fit. this year hes running shorter races. if he does not win at 10 furlongs before the cup. theres no way i'm taking some low ball price on him. seeing is believing,,,talk is for the internet. i love how people talk these horses up before the fact. yes, hes going good now but theres plenty of time and competition left. its only july and granted the tracks were wet but he could not get it done last year. this year you are looking aT 6-5 if he keeps winning.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

how come this guy seems to make sense, alot? unlike alot of others. i bet quality road last year at 11 to 1...he scratched after throwing a fit. this year hes running shorter races. if he does not win at 10 furlongs before the cup. theres no way i'm taking some low ball price on him. seeing is believing,,,talk is for the internet. i love how people talk these horses up before the fact. yes, hes going good now but theres plenty of time and competition left. its only july and granted the tracks were wet but he could not get it done last year. this year you are looking aT 6-5 if he keeps winning.

No way Quality Road is 6-5 if an undefeated Zenyatta shows up! The public will pound Zenyatta at this point no matter what, because she's the "undefeated" champion.

If Zenyatta doesn't show, then I'd agree probably 6-5 on QR.