Monmouth handle & attendance

cmorioles · #1 07-05-2010, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Correct- $14k in WPS, otherwise known as the mutuel pool. Perhaps we had a communications error there.

As for the point of significant profit over time- there is no question that if your bets make a material impact on the pool, in essence you're playing against yourself and your job would be more difficult. However, that is not what is being discussed. The question was whether a $40 wager would materially impact a race at Presque Isle Downs with a $14k WPS pool and I proved that it would not- at least not nearly enough to affect CJ's claim that a +20% ROI would turn negative with that size wager.

Aren't exotics part of the mutuel pool?

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

philcski · #2 07-05-2010, 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Aren't exotics part of the mutuel pool?

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

So now you're backtracking? CJ, you're better than this. I know that.

No, exotics are not part of the mutuel pool size listing. Again, here's the chart from the last race run at PID. http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndex...=20100703&RN=8 The WPS ("mutuel") pool was $14,219; EX $10,273; TRI $8,660; SUP $2,402 (all pre-takeout numbers of course.)

Can someone have a +20% over a whole meet on 4-1 shots? Sure. Bet 1,000 races at 4-1 and win 240 of them. Someone can have a +20% ROI on 1/5 shots... if they run the table.

One thing that should be noted is horses that are long odds at tracks like PID are huge underlays. Many of them have virtually no chance of winning... are absolute talentless cripples... yet even the token $300 total bet on them causes them to go off at 20-1.

The Indomitable DrugS · #3 07-05-2010, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

One thing that should be noted is horses that are long odds at tracks like PID are huge underlays. Many of them have virtually no chance of winning... are absolute talentless cripples...

If these horses are breaking from the rail post and have speed ... they aren't entirely hopeless.

One of my favorite races of the meet so far was this one ....

http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...00526&raceNo=3

A 66/1 shot winner goes wire-to-wire .. and a 40/1 shot 2nd place finisher is 2nd at every call. They are basically isolated in front of the rest of the field the whole way and no one even threatens them at any point.

Sightseek · #4 07-06-2010, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

.

This is pretty close to Iavarone...no wonder the horse is a total loser without an extreme track bias.

The Bid · #5 07-06-2010, 09:11 AM

That horse is nothing like iavarone. He paid his bill once when he won........that makes them different.

VOL JACK · #6 07-06-2010, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If these horses are breaking from the rail post and have speed ... they aren't entirely hopeless.

One of my favorite races of the meet so far was this one ....

http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...00526&raceNo=3

A 66/1 shot winner goes wire-to-wire .. and a 40/1 shot 2nd place finisher is 2nd at every call. They are basically isolated in front of the rest of the field the whole way and no one even threatens them at any point.

A piece of $hi+ without balls named Iavarone.
Fits well.

The Indomitable DrugS · #7 07-05-2010, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

Of course I never said my profit was 20% - Jesus Christ.

I was going over some PID stats with a local bettor ... I told him that post position #1 has won 66 out of the 320 races here so far - for a 20.6% win percentage and a mind-boggling $2.85 ROI. That's a 42.5% profit per dollar bet.

Then I told him about how insanely great the stats are for speed.

He goes to me "I can't understand how you're doing so bad with your paper picks? I know your showing a little profit, but if you just picked the speed horse - or even the horse starting from the rail in every race - you'd be doing amazing!"

What they don't realize is that those stats are skewed - not just by the constant speed and rail bias - but also by some GIANT priced winners.

Here's an example of a horse I didn't pick 1st - but picked 2nd behind the favorite.

Summer Outing was drawn wide in post 8 back to back races - and raced wide against the bias in the prior start. By stretching out to two-turns and drawing the great rail post in a race without a lot of speed ... it was an attractive longshot. Look at the weak prior form though! That weak form didn't matter - the horse won by 18 lengths at 12/1 thanks to the bias.

MISTERGEE · #8 07-05-2010, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Of course I never said my profit was 20% - Jesus Christ.

I was going over some PID stats with a local bettor ... I told him that post position #1 has won 66 out of the 320 races here so far - for a 20.6% win percentage and a mind-boggling $2.85 ROI. That's a 42.5% profit per dollar bet.

Then I told him about how insanely great the stats are for speed.

He goes to me "I can't understand how you're doing so bad with your paper picks? I know your showing a little profit, but if you just picked the speed horse - or even the horse starting from the rail in every race - you'd be doing amazing!"

What they don't realize is that those stats are skewed - not just by the constant speed and rail bias - but also by some GIANT priced winners.

Here's an example of a horse I didn't pick 1st - but picked 2nd behind the favorite.

Summer Outing was drawn wide in post 8 back to back races - and raced wide against the bias in the prior start. By stretching out to two-turns and drawing the great rail post in a race without a lot of speed ... it was an attractive longshot. Look at the weak prior form though! That weak form didn't matter - the horse won by 18 lengths at 12/1 thanks to the bias.

may I ask are your picks for PID, in the paper but not on the website?

The Indomitable DrugS · #9 07-05-2010, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

may I ask are your picks for PID, in the paper but not on the website?

They put them on the website sometimes - and other times they don't. They are always in the paper.

You have to remember - there are like 40 people betting the horses ontrack the average night ... and they have options between my stuff in the paper - or the two TV commentators .. they even had a free tipsheet for a couple years made by one of the on-air guys. He'd pick entirely different horses in the tipsheet than he'd pick on-air .. but he'd say his on-air picks were through handicapping and his tip sheet picks were through his special points system formula .. it was just odd how they NEVER landed on the same top pick.

It's a situation where I could spend 10 seconds a race and handicap a whole card in less than 2 minutes and no one would care. I'd still get paid and I still couldn't do any worse than the track people .. I just have way too much pride and way too much ego to do that.