What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I can't blame folks who want to look at Schoolyard Dreams in this race - if he goes. He was on more than even terms with Super Saver at Tampa this winter.

That's kind of a tough comparison to make when Super Saver was making his first start of 2010.

NT

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

That's kind of a tough comparison to make when Super Saver was making his first start of 2010.

NT

Well, it's not like his second start (or third really, if we're being fair) were that much better.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Well, it's not like his second start (or third really, if we're being fair) were that much better.

What? So Super Saver's Ark Derby and Ky Derby were not much better than his Tampa Derby? I couldn't possibly agree with that.

The Tampa Derby proved to be what many thought it was. It was a trio of average horses slugging it out down the stretch with one decent horse who needed a race. He moved forward in the Ark Derby then even more so in the Ky Derby.

I'm not saying Super Saver is some rising star sent to rescue thoroughbred racing from anonymity and there are going to be plenty of knocks on him in Baltimore, but I think it's pretty clear that he's developing and I think the quick comeback may actually serve him well.

NT

[slotdirt]

I don't completely disagree with you - I think he's by far the most logical winner next weekend in Baltimore. That being said, I don't think either of his last two races were exactly something to write home about, even factoring in that one of those races ended up with him winning the Derby. Just saying I can't blame anybody who is going to want to take a stab at beating him in the Preakness.

[randallscott35]

I'm moving my number up to 25%. EOM.

[Travis Stone]

I put his chances of winning next Saturday at 40%.... and not knowing how the Belmont field will look, figure he's 25-30% in there.... 10-12% overall.

I don't see how the Preakness field is shaping-up to be any more difficult than the Derby field. He's only run three times this year, so he's relatively fresh considering, and I think he's shown he's immune to insane pace scenarios... he can rate close, or a bit farther off.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I put his chances of winning next Saturday at 40%.... and not knowing how the Belmont field will look, figure he's 25-30% in there.... 10-12% overall.

I don't see how the Preakness field is shaping-up to be any more difficult than the Derby field. He's only run three times this year, so he's relatively fresh considering, and I think he's shown he's immune to insane pace scenarios... he can rate close, or a bit farther off.

I don't like him at all and at his projected odds he would be overbet, this even considering he was probably the most underlaid horse in the Derby, frankly I don't like any from the Derby race to come out and be a good bet. If Dublin got a new rider and trainer he might be more attractive, thus I am going to the new shooters list, and right at the top of that list is Hurricane Ike, he's improving at the right time and he's got an extra week to get ready for this. To me his 101 is alot more legitimate than the 104 that SS got in the Derby. I'll make my bed with Hurricane Ike in the Preakness.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What? So Super Saver's Ark Derby and Ky Derby were not much better than his Tampa Derby? I couldn't possibly agree with that.

The Tampa Derby proved to be what many thought it was. It was a trio of average horses slugging it out down the stretch with one decent horse who needed a race. He moved forward in the Ark Derby then even more so in the Ky Derby.

I'm not saying Super Saver is some rising star sent to rescue thoroughbred racing from anonymity and there are going to be plenty of knocks on him in Baltimore, but I think it's pretty clear that he's developing and I think the quick comeback may actually serve him well.

NT

Come on, Nick. You can do better than that. He got the best of it in the TBD and hung like a rat in the Ark Derby. Then he gets just about the best possible setup in the Derby. He may win the Preakness but he's not doing it without the best trip in the race. Chalk that needs the best trip is not exactly the best way to make money.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Come on, Nick. You can do better than that. He got the best of it in the TBD and hung like a rat in the Ark Derby. Then he gets just about the best possible setup in the Derby. He may win the Preakness but he's not doing it without the best trip in the race. Chalk that needs the best trip is not exactly the best way to make money.

I can't dispute anything that you said, in fact, you illustrated exactly why I didn't like him in the Derby.

The thing that I feel like I've realized is that this is a crop of 3YOs replete with horses who can't win unless a lot (if not everything) goes their way. The only horse who ran a very good race against the race flow in a prep was Rule. Unfortunately, he's off the reservation.

NT