What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple?

[slotdirt]

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

Worst day in history at Belmont. 1000 degrees and the bathrooms on an entire floor didn't work or were locked. People pissing on the floors. What a mess.

[Gate Dancer]

10%-15% to win either the Preakness or Belmont...............I think he goes down in Baltimore.

[randallscott35]

WinStar Farms' Super Saver jogged a mile at Churchill Downs on the morning of May 5 in his first return to the track since winning the May 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).

"He looked very good," Mike McCarthy, assistant to trainer Todd Pletcher said of the Maria's Mon colt’s appearance on the track.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

10%-15% to win either the Preakness or Belmont...............I think he goes down in Baltimore.

He goes down in the Preakness. Runs well in the race and just like Mind that Bird he wont be real tough to beat the rest of the year.

[NTamm1215]

I'll say this much and it doesn't apply to the Belmont but I think Super Saver is going to be nowhere near his fair odds in the Preakness. I think he should be a prohibitive (sub-even money) favorite and he's going to be bigger than that.

What's lining up to face him among horses who didn't run in the Derby is nothing to be scared of whatsoever and the horses coming back from the Derby are not much. I believe it will become clear that Paddy O' Prado was greatly aided by the sloppy track. I think Saturday was just another stop on the excuse train for Lookin at Lucky and any chance of Dublin being a good horse was erased months ago.

I fully expect Super Saver to win next week.

NT

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'll say this much and it doesn't apply to the Belmont but I think Super Saver is going to be nowhere near his fair odds in the Preakness. I think he should be a prohibitive (sub-even money) favorite and he's going to be bigger than that.

What's lining up to face him among horses who didn't run in the Derby is nothing to be scared of whatsoever and the horses coming back from the Derby are not much. I believe it will become clear that Paddy O' Prado was greatly aided by the sloppy track. I think Saturday was just another stop on the excuse train for Lookin at Lucky and any chance of Dublin being a good horse was erased months ago.

I fully expect Super Saver to win next week.

NT

Wholeheartedly agree. I expect him to win as well. Was able to win with a 1 in thoros, barely breaking his 2 yr old top. He is unlikely to go backwards in this race and who exactly is going to move forwards and beat him?

[the_fat_man]

I don't know. Is the field for the Preakness set?

SS hasn't really run a 'huge' race and he got a very, very nice trip in the Derby. Not only did he save ground but he was nicely positioned just behind the fast pace. I suppose if he gets an absolutely perfect trip again he wins. If he's asked to do some of his own running, however, he hasn't shown, to this point, except for the CD race, that he can do it. Combine this with low odds and 'no thanks'.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'll say this much and it doesn't apply to the Belmont but I think Super Saver is going to be nowhere near his fair odds in the Preakness. I think he should be a prohibitive (sub-even money) favorite and he's going to be bigger than that.

What's lining up to face him among horses who didn't run in the Derby is nothing to be scared of whatsoever and the horses coming back from the Derby are not much. I believe it will become clear that Paddy O' Prado was greatly aided by the sloppy track. I think Saturday was just another stop on the excuse train for Lookin at Lucky and any chance of Dublin being a good horse was erased months ago.

I fully expect Super Saver to win next week.

NT

I see you didn't take me seriously when I mentioned I liked Hurricane Ike last weekend, there are quite a few things to like about this horse.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'll say this much and it doesn't apply to the Belmont but I think Super Saver is going to be nowhere near his fair odds in the Preakness. I think he should be a prohibitive (sub-even money) favorite and he's going to be bigger than that.

What's lining up to face him among horses who didn't run in the Derby is nothing to be scared of whatsoever and the horses coming back from the Derby are not much. I believe it will become clear that Paddy O' Prado was greatly aided by the sloppy track. I think Saturday was just another stop on the excuse train for Lookin at Lucky and any chance of Dublin being a good horse was erased months ago.

I fully expect Super Saver to win next week.

NT

i agree with you too. theres not much to beat with ice box out.(it was the only horse that was even close to him). people are talking about "perfect" trip, well, thats two races in a row he got a pefect trip. the horse has tactical speed so he will get a good trip most likely. the only thing holding me back will be the odds. i'm hoping people like some of the other ones and they will because i've heard a million excuses already. if this horse is anywhere near 5-2, i will be all over him.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

He goes down in the Preakness. Runs well in the race and just like Mind that Bird he wont be real tough to beat the rest of the year.

Maybe it's all the sex on the beach (that's distracting you)... not sure but come on... over a year later. Can't we get his name right?

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Maybe it's all the sex on the beach (that's distracting you)... not sure but come on... over a year later. Can't we get his name right?

I never said I was smart and old age has taken it's toll.

[Oaklawnfan]

I would think Calvin might have a better shot than his horse does. I can see a KD, Preakness double, but the Crown is gonna be a reach. He is riding horse named Readys Rocket in the first on Saturday at Churchill. Should be a super value on his first return from a long layoff. Not that I'm sayin. I'm just sayin.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

I never said I was smart and old age has taken it's toll.

Thanks for understanding that I'm an idiot.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Worst day in history at Belmont. 1000 degrees and the bathrooms on an entire floor didn't work or were locked. People pissing on the floors. What a mess.

.....my 1st visist to belmont.....i loved when smarty was beaten the ping pong paddle looking smarty plauqes were flying. the train outta there reminded me of cal jam 2.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

Smarty had a huge Philly/Pa contigent, so I'm thinking many of them made the trek to Belmont that day. Also Smarty had that feel of being the people's horse with very likeable connections.
Big Brown seemed to be the opposite. IEAH came across as these mercenaries with their black suits and sunglasses that bought their way in. Not to mention what some people's opinions of Dutrow are. It just didn't seem like everone was on board rooting for Big Brown, like they usually do when a horse is going into the Belmont trying to capture the crown.
The Eight Belles tradgedy also seemed to take some of the starch out of the triple crown campaign that year as well.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Smarty had a huge Philly/Pa contigent, so I'm thinking many of them made the trek to Belmont that day. Also Smarty had that feel of being the people's horse with very likeable connections.
Big Brown seemed to be the opposite. IEAH came across as these mercenaries with their black suits and sunglasses that bought their way in. Not to mention what some people's opinions of Dutrow are. It just didn't seem like everone was on board rooting for Big Brown, like they usually do when a horse is going into the Belmont trying to capture the crown.
The Eight Belles tradgedy also seemed to take some of the starch out of the triple crown campaign that year as well.

didnt NYRA ban bringing in coolers of beer for Belmont one year? I know Pimlico did, I could be completely wrong.

the beer thing always affects attendence.. Also the weather of course