What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

To win all three? Pretty low considering there have been 92 "official" runnings of the Triple Crown since 1918 and only 11 horses have won all three.

He already won one.

10 to 12% sounds about right. His odds make him more likely, as TC hopefuls are always WAY overbet in the Belmont, but isn't it hard to believe he can be over 40% in that race....and probably less?

[parsixfarms]

As the NYS legislature continues to dither, NYRA and the NY racing industry as a whole could really use the financial shot in the arm that would come from Super Saver winning the Preakness. NYRA has been very unlucky on its "big days" recently. Hopefully, that will change and the stars will align for Super Saver in Baltimore.

[FATPIANO]

Let's see how he does at Pimlico, right now we have an evenly matched group of 3 yr olds, except for Esky. If Super Saver can pull off the Preakness, and stay healthy, I'd give him an excellent chance at Belmont, Look at last years Pilgrim. All Calvin would have to do is ride a few races at Belmont and get comfortable over the track. Go Super Go........

[slotdirt]

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

Worst day in history at Belmont. 1000 degrees and the bathrooms on an entire floor didn't work or were locked. People pissing on the floors. What a mess.

[Gate Dancer]

10%-15% to win either the Preakness or Belmont...............I think he goes down in Baltimore.

[randallscott35]

WinStar Farms' Super Saver jogged a mile at Churchill Downs on the morning of May 5 in his first return to the track since winning the May 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).

"He looked very good," Mike McCarthy, assistant to trainer Todd Pletcher said of the Maria's Mon colt’s appearance on the track.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

10%-15% to win either the Preakness or Belmont...............I think he goes down in Baltimore.

He goes down in the Preakness. Runs well in the race and just like Mind that Bird he wont be real tough to beat the rest of the year.

[NTamm1215]

I'll say this much and it doesn't apply to the Belmont but I think Super Saver is going to be nowhere near his fair odds in the Preakness. I think he should be a prohibitive (sub-even money) favorite and he's going to be bigger than that.

What's lining up to face him among horses who didn't run in the Derby is nothing to be scared of whatsoever and the horses coming back from the Derby are not much. I believe it will become clear that Paddy O' Prado was greatly aided by the sloppy track. I think Saturday was just another stop on the excuse train for Lookin at Lucky and any chance of Dublin being a good horse was erased months ago.

I fully expect Super Saver to win next week.

NT

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

He goes down in the Preakness. Runs well in the race and just like Mind that Bird he wont be real tough to beat the rest of the year.

Maybe it's all the sex on the beach (that's distracting you)... not sure but come on... over a year later. Can't we get his name right?

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Worst day in history at Belmont. 1000 degrees and the bathrooms on an entire floor didn't work or were locked. People pissing on the floors. What a mess.

.....my 1st visist to belmont.....i loved when smarty was beaten the ping pong paddle looking smarty plauqes were flying. the train outta there reminded me of cal jam 2.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

Smarty had a huge Philly/Pa contigent, so I'm thinking many of them made the trek to Belmont that day. Also Smarty had that feel of being the people's horse with very likeable connections.
Big Brown seemed to be the opposite. IEAH came across as these mercenaries with their black suits and sunglasses that bought their way in. Not to mention what some people's opinions of Dutrow are. It just didn't seem like everone was on board rooting for Big Brown, like they usually do when a horse is going into the Belmont trying to capture the crown.
The Eight Belles tradgedy also seemed to take some of the starch out of the triple crown campaign that year as well.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Smarty had a huge Philly/Pa contigent, so I'm thinking many of them made the trek to Belmont that day. Also Smarty had that feel of being the people's horse with very likeable connections.
Big Brown seemed to be the opposite. IEAH came across as these mercenaries with their black suits and sunglasses that bought their way in. Not to mention what some people's opinions of Dutrow are. It just didn't seem like everone was on board rooting for Big Brown, like they usually do when a horse is going into the Belmont trying to capture the crown.
The Eight Belles tradgedy also seemed to take some of the starch out of the triple crown campaign that year as well.

didnt NYRA ban bringing in coolers of beer for Belmont one year? I know Pimlico did, I could be completely wrong.

the beer thing always affects attendence.. Also the weather of course