Believable ROI and Win %

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It depends - I think you could pull off a 35% win rate with your eyes closed if you were completely unconcerned with value.

Just bet favorites every race and you'll win at a 33% clip. You'll also lose a lot of money.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Just bet favorites every race and you'll win at a 33% clip. You'll also lose a lot of money.

Yes, but every statistical study I've ever seen had favorites winning around that 33% clip, but also beating the take by losing only +/- 10%. In fact, for win betting, the % loss grows greater at every increasing odds tick, meaning by betting longshots you have to be even better when compared to the total pool of wagers.