Two at Toga (2025)

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

I had a lot riding on The Wine Steward there. That was really tough. He looked like a winner nearly the entire race.

Paid $7.10 to place.

$152.00 wagered
$251.00 returned

Yeah, that was sickening - I thought we were home. Cost me the late pick 5 and some other stuff...Prat rode The Wine Steward perfect, he seems snakebitten currently...some of the riders with more wins and/or higher win percentages are pretty shocking, at least they would've been before the meet...I do still think it's mainly noise, but interesting nonetheless.

TWS paid $7.10 to place
Soundbite got a nice ride by Manny, who got her to settle and stayed in the clear, timed the run perfectly paying $14.80/$7.00

Wagered: $152.00
Returned: $180.20

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Yeah, that was sickening - I thought we were home. Cost me the late pick 5 and some other stuff...Prat rode The Wine Steward perfect, he seems snakebitten currently...some of the riders with more wins and/or higher win percentages are pretty shocking, at least they would've been before the meet...I do still think it's mainly noise, but interesting nonetheless.

TWS paid $7.10 to place
Soundbite got a nice ride by Manny, who got her to settle and stayed in the clear, timed the run perfectly paying $14.80/$7.00

Wagered: $152.00
Returned: $180.20

Nice call on Sound Bite. Back in the winners circle.

Today, it seemed like the guys who are good at giving aggressive forwardly placed rides fared well (Santana, Carmouche, Jose Ortiz). It might be a while before I get Lezcano again. He has not been riding well.

[moses]

Friday.

Race 7. #3 Tiz Dashing, 15/1. I’ll probably look like a fool for betting against Zulu Kingdom but my plan here is to go two wide in horizontals, using only #2 Luther and #3 Tiz Dashing. My hope is that Zulu Kingdom gets a little caught up in what looks like a fast pace and gets run down by one of them. And I think Tiz Dashing will be every bit of 15/1, expecting most money to land on Zulu Kingdom, Luther, and Clever Again. Tiz Dashing got a nice trip last out and wasn’t good enough but he was coming off a small layoff and I’d expect him to be a little more geared up for this one. Maybe I’ll look like a fool but I’ll take the risk at 15/1.

Race 8. #11 Kismeholdmethrlme, 20/1. I’ve spent a lot of time on this card and just couldn’t go with my original picks in this spot (Cloudy in Race 9, Leslie Star in Race 10.) This horse promises to be a monster price in a field with no clear favorite and certainly no horses that your really trust to run well. His figures from earlier this year on dirt make him somewhat competitive here and note he’s been on grass most of his recent races, but his pedigree looks more like dirt. Franco hops aboard and he should hopefully be able to work out a good trip. He finished 2nd in a MCL50,000 3 back that got washed off the turf.

[theguarantee]

8/1/25

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Vinsanity 15/1 - I thought about going back to Fluid Situation in here who did have a little trouble never getting totally free riding the rail, but I also just never thought he really finished up there. Chess Master and Shefflin can obviously win but I don't want either at a short price. There are some other options here and Vinsanity is probably a stretch but he'll be a huge price in here...he has some 5.5 turf sprints on firm that I think are competitive in here, I think the effort on softer turf in June can be ignored and sneakily he ran pretty well I thought in that dirt sprint at Monmouth last out. I think he's getting back to what he does best sprinting on the turf...might not be good enough but I'm not sure he's really that much less likely than Cloudy, Chiringo, Hilarious Affair etc who will all be (some much) lower prices.

Best Value: Race 8 #9 Come Full Circle 12/1 - Will have to improve returning to dirt and shortening up...the debut effort was better than it looks fig wise though and even that number puts him into the mix...not sure he won't be a bit of a wiseguy horse and come down from the 12/1 (and maybe it's a bad thing if he truly is double digits in here) - but I think in a race where you initially want to beat the favorites but struggle to find anything to latch onto, he's the right type to take a shot with.

[moses]

Look at us giving out a $150 exacta. Nice call there.

Tiz Dashing ran OK and was strangely moved up on a DQ I didn’t even know was happening until I checked back long after the race. Kismeholdmethrlme paid $19.40 to place.

$160.00 wagered
$270.40 returned

I haven’t even started looking at tomorrow. I know it’s a rough sequence with a lot of great horses. Kind of have a thought about the Fourstardave but I’ve really got to dig in first.

[theguarantee]

^yeah Mo really nice call on that 11. Hope you or someone was smart enough to hit that exacta and or tri…I unfortunately didn’t like your 11 at all

Tomorrow’s card is ridiculous. I started on it Tuesday and still don’t feel I’ve put enough into it. Good luck - it’s been a fun Saratoga meet so far. It’s challenging but the answers and prices are out there.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^yeah Mo really nice call on that 11. Hope you or someone was smart enough to hit that exacta and or tri…I unfortunately didn’t like your 11 at all

Tomorrow’s card is ridiculous. I started on it Tuesday and still don’t feel I’ve put enough into it. Good luck - it’s been a fun Saratoga meet so far. It’s challenging but the answers and prices are out there.

I didn’t have the exacta but I did have the Pick 3 ending with your 9, which paid pretty well. $200+. I was hoping for the 11 as the payout would have been double that. But I won’t complain.

My picks for Saturday.

Race 8. #1 Cugino, 10/1. There are a handful of horses you could really make a case for here. The ML favorite #3 Johannes — I want no parts off coming off a long layoff into this field. I’m probably going to try to get some value out of this race. I really love #8 Deterministic and #4 Think Big and will use them in horizontals. Cugino is stepping back into the graded stakes realm. I liked his 4YO debut against some pretty solid horses and that should serve as a good prep for this race. Is he good enough? I’m not sure but I think he’ll be 10/1 or more and he looks to get a nice inside trip behind the speed.

Race 11. #10 Post Time, 12/1. We all expect this pace to be fast with Chad adding Contrary Thinking in a race that already features Mama’s Gold. But Sierra Leone just doesn’t win enough for me to bet at 2/1. I’m also not sure that it will soften Fierceness up as he’s become much better at not getting sucked into speed duels. But, expecting the pace does heat up, I want to give Post Time a shot at a big number. I expect to use Fierceness and Post Time in multis but I’ll be putting a win bet on Post Time if he’s 12/1.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Value: Race 8 #9 Come Full Circle 12/1 - Will have to improve returning to dirt and shortening up...the debut effort was better than it looks fig wise though and even that number puts him into the mix...not sure he won't be a bit of a wiseguy horse and come down from the 12/1 (and maybe it's a bad thing if he truly is double digits in here) - but I think in a race where you initially want to beat the favorites but struggle to find anything to latch onto, he's the right type to take a shot with.

Super work here! Andy was all over him too.

[theguarantee]

^Thanks Steve.

8/2/25
Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Intellect 5/1 - I get thinking this one is an underlay but I actually have a very different take on the Kelso than most - I think the interference helped horses like Think Big and Neat as it allowed them to back off of the hottest pace of the race. I thought Prat moved far too early into the teeth of the race and was why he was ultimately outfinished. Prior to that he was too far back behind a pace that didn't develop quite enough. I think he gets the right trip today at a square price and while I do think Win For The Money is interesting for similar reasons racing wide that day, I just think maybe Intellect has more upside overall and today is the day to find out.

Best Value: Race 9 #1 Capitol Hill 15/1 - For better or worse this might be the horse I'm most excited to bet all meet so far...I realize the Euros have merits, particularly Hotazhell who if coming with an A effort will probably be too much, but I think there is a major question mark on how his running style, along with the other two, will translate here. I'm not against but I definitely don't want the short price...my main opinion on this race is that I really like Capitol Hill more than any of the NA contingent, and he figures to be a big price. I've never been a huge Final Gambit fan and I don't really get the excuses most are making for him last out. Tiztastic is kind of a plodder and while World Beater is nice I think he's pretty well exposed at this point. Test Score has the best credentials and is a contender but he's not one I'm scared from and thought he got a perfect trip in the last. New Century is a horse I was sky high on before his last and I could not have come away more disappointed in that effort. When I look at Capitol Hill I think the sky is the limit in terms of upside. He's lightly raced and I'll dismiss the debut effort as he's clearly a turf horse. The maiden breaker was tremendous and Uncatalyzed is far from a tomato can - he ran past him like he was tied to a post that day. Keeneland is a weird surface and while that effort was disappointing it was another solid field where he broke out into the hot dog stand and was just wide throughout. The dirt effort after is another easy line through race to me but I loved his Manilla effort. Yes, he saved ground throughout but he figures to do so again today. I thought his run at Zulu Kingdom was tremendous and showed his ability - I play around with numbers and think for whatever reason Beyer figs have continually underrated the quality of efforts of Zulu Kingdoms races (not saying they are wrong per say) - I think that effort puts him a lot closer to the best of the NA contingent here and if the Euros don't take to this course, I fully expect another step forward and think he's about as likely as many of the lower prices in here.

Good luck.

[moses]

Swing and a miss with both picks. I was able to cash some tickets today thanks to Deterministic. I didn’t even bet a trifecta that race but holy cow — it paid $330 for Deterministic-Intellect-Win For The Money, who in my opinion all made sense.

Good call on Intellect, by the way.

$168.00 wagered
$270.40 returned

For Sunday.

Race 3. #8 Hero’s Medal, 8/1. This is purely a pace play as I fully expect the pace to get hot and I want a late runner. Obviously the other Kantarmaci horse makes some sense too but this one should be a bigger price and he has races from last year that would win this and even his recent races haven’t been too bad so hoping the pace develops and Dylan can run them down in the stretch.

Race 7. #5 Doroteo, 10/1. There are a lot of big names in this race so this horse who broke its maiden at Indy and trained by Jose Camejo will get overlooked. Camejo doesn’t send horses to Saratoga too often so I’ve got to think he likes this one. The pace here will also be very fast with multiple horses who like to run up front. Doroteo ran into some pretty good horses in prior starts, including Hypnus and Clever Again. And you’ve got to wonder if he even wanted to go two turns. His debut was trial by fire as he got dropped right into a stakes race and was good enough to run 2nd there. The connections obviously think highly of him. He was great last out, rating well inside and behind the speed, then cut the corner at the top of the stretch and was gone. He’ll likely have to navigate more traffic this time but he should get the pace setup, if he’s good enough.