Two at Toga (2025)

[theguarantee]

Why not?

7/3/25:
Best Bet Race 10 #5 Quiet Confidence 8/1
I guess she wanted turf all along because I had that last race really fast/impressive and I think if she doesn't regress off the effort will be very tough to beat in here. Interesting field here, a lot of question marks, I think what happens on the Churchill turf course the past few years tends to be in complete isolation so I may try to get Lamorna into the number in here...she was always pretty talented though disappointing but I think this is her best trip...the Turfway efforts were fine and I'm guessing with Victor Espinoza up she's unlikely to draw much attention in the wagering.

Best Value: Race 7 #1 Fluid Situation 12/1
I like the 5.5 for him and I think he's better than he's shown the last few with some trips. Not sure how Johnny will work out the right trip from the rail but the price will be right and I wasn't thrilled with any of the more logical contenders in this group.

Good luck everyone - going to try to calculate where I ended last year as I don't think I updated at the end, things went pretty cold late in the meet last year, but hopefully can find some similar success this go around.

[moses]

Not sure I can do this every day but I’ll add two for today.

Race 8. #1 Fixin to Bee, 8/1.
Race 11. #12 Mystic Sea, 12/1.

[knickslions2]

Good luck guys

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Why not?

7/3/25:
Best Bet Race 10 #5 Quiet Confidence 8/1
I guess she wanted turf all along because I had that last race really fast/impressive and I think if she doesn't regress off the effort will be very tough to beat in here. Interesting field here, a lot of question marks, I think what happens on the Churchill turf course the past few years tends to be in complete isolation so I may try to get Lamorna into the number in here...she was always pretty talented though disappointing but I think this is her best trip...the Turfway efforts were fine and I'm guessing with Victor Espinoza up she's unlikely to draw much attention in the wagering.

Well done!

[theguarantee]

^Thanks Steve.

Was just curious, went back and checked:

2023:
Wagered: $320.00
Returned: $316.70
2024:
Wagered: $316.00
Returned: $377.80

So far we will take the start to 2025...Fluid Situation ran an OK third without much of an excuse but Quiet Confidence proved the move to turf was no fluke paying $17.80/7.00

Wagered: $8.00
Returned: $24.80

Pretty fun 4th card today, still working on it.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Not sure I can do this every day but I’ll add two for today.

Race 8. #1 Fixin to Bee, 8/1.
Race 11. #12 Mystic Sea, 12/1.

Fixin To Bee stumbled out of the gate but was never going to win that race, finishing a distant 4th. Mystic Sea was never in contention.

$8.00 wagered
$0.00 returned

Today —

Race 2. #3 Bay Yaupon 10/1. Contessa took this two years ago with a first time starter. None of the horses here look anything special and the recent bullet work hints that maybe this one is ready.

Race 4. #5 Profound 8/1. Ran into a good one last out and should appreciate the slight cut back and the fact that there doesn’t seem to be much pace signed on.

[theguarantee]

7/4/25:

Best Bet: Race 9 #4 New Century 3/1 - At 3/1 I'd place a pretty good bet here, I like everything about this horse. I think his American Turf was really nice...the race two back to Field of Gold, being within five lengths of that one is no shame. I know it's not exactly a secret but not sure everyone here grasps just how good FOG is. Oisin is as good of a turf rider as there is IMO although he hasn't quite found a ton of success in his NA chances, I have all the confidence in the world in him getting this horse getting this horse in a better spot than the last and I really do think he will win.

Best Value: Race 10 #5 Bendoog 12/1 - I know the Suburban was pretty weak last year but I thought he should've won with a better trip, however more importantly I just like the pattern coming in this year better. I think Mott was a little behind with him last year pointing to this spot and I think he really does want the 1 1/4 mile trip. I think the pattern of keeping him somewhat fresh has him pointed to a peak effort. I think he also figures to get the right kind of trip in here today sitting behind what could be a good pace but possibly getting first run.

[moses]

7/5

Race 3. #4 Blinging it Back 6/5 (Using #1 Imagine John heavily underneath.)
Race 8. #8 Final Verdict 7/2

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $16.00
Returned: $24.80

Extremely disappointed in New Century, came up totally empty and I thought he was going to win as they started on the turn. Bendoog was bad.

7/5/25:

Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Step Forward 10/1 - The races last summer at Woodbine and Saratoga fit with the contenders here to me, in particular at this trip at the Spa had a nightmare trip and still came up pretty fast. Dirt, Kentucky Downs, Down the Hill were some crazy spots that are all excusable. Last off the layoff ran OK with a bit of a trip....so dirtied up...bit of a guess but it feels like today is the day to get this one.

Best Value: Race 12 #8 Uncle Barrie 20/1 - I know this horse is just a slow plodder and could totally be a horrible pick....if Capt Jax Parrow runs back to the last (or god forbid improves since it's trending up) obviously they're all running for second...but he's hardly trustworthy and I don't really see why Kings and Queens is getting so much love here. I don't really love any of the other logical alternatives or the firster and Uncle Barrie has just been slowly but steadily improving. Got lasix three back and is moving in the right direction...maybe the cutback is just what the doctor ordered. His races at the start of his career against Special Weights were at least similar to the efforts in those fields as the shorter prices...it's a pretty big stab on some pretty bad connections, but in this field I'll take a swing.

Not an official pick but I am trying to beat Nitrogen today for better or worse. Respect her a ton but I think this field towers over what she's been facing...problem is there are so many directions to go...I don't know what she's been doing really but May Day Ready's BC Juvy Filly effort was something, I'll probably lean on her and Oppulent Restraint who looks too slow but I think is one Chad is high on especially as the year goes along and has hinted he thinks she needs the distance.

Also, one more chance to unofficially look stupid but I don't see why everyone seems to prefer Intellect to Donegal Momentum. I get the racing dynamics part of it but I thought DM finished up great and was not ever threatened/might not let Intellect by if it came to it...again, I get it but I think DM is trending upward and really nice, really love the stride and think there is yet more upside. Mountain Bear is who I consider the main danger (and I'll await the return of Nantasket Beach who I was really intrigued with).

Good luck everyone.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

7/5

Race 3. #4 Blinging it Back 6/5 (Using #1 Imagine John heavily underneath.)
Race 8. #8 Final Verdict 7/2

$24.00 wagered
$2.40 returned

Terrible so far.

Race 3. #6 In Time 4/1
Race 6. #3 Downtown Channel 5/1

[theguarantee]

7/6/25

Best Bet: Race 8: #5 Takeschargesmiling 6/1
Best Value: Race 7: #3 Danghereshecomesshang 12/1

[theguarantee]

^Great work today Mo, was hoping we would get a quad..that Forgiving Spirit just killed my nice start late multis

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Great work today Mo, was hoping we would get a quad..that Forgiving Spirit just killed my nice start late multis

Thanks. Great call on that Ward horse. I had a good day but couldn’t put it all together in the bigger multis.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$24.00 wagered
$2.40 returned

Terrible so far.

Race 3. #6 In Time 4/1
Race 6. #3 Downtown Channel 5/1

$32.00 wagered.
$36.80 returned.

That’s why you’ve got to love this sport. Just takes one race to turn things around.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Wagered: $16.00
Returned: $24.80

Extremely disappointed in New Century, came up totally empty and I thought he was going to win as they started on the turn. Bendoog was bad.

7/5/25:

Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Step Forward 10/1 - The races last summer at Woodbine and Saratoga fit with the contenders here to me, in particular at this trip at the Spa had a nightmare trip and still came up pretty fast. Dirt, Kentucky Downs, Down the Hill were some crazy spots that are all excusable. Last off the layoff ran OK with a bit of a trip....so dirtied up...bit of a guess but it feels like today is the day to get this one.

Best Value: Race 12 #8 Uncle Barrie 20/1 - I know this horse is just a slow plodder and could totally be a horrible pick....if Capt Jax Parrow runs back to the last (or god forbid improves since it's trending up) obviously they're all running for second...but he's hardly trustworthy and I don't really see why Kings and Queens is getting so much love here. I don't really love any of the other logical alternatives or the firster and Uncle Barrie has just been slowly but steadily improving. Got lasix three back and is moving in the right direction...maybe the cutback is just what the doctor ordered. His races at the start of his career against Special Weights were at least similar to the efforts in those fields as the shorter prices...it's a pretty big stab on some pretty bad connections, but in this field I'll take a swing.

Not an official pick but I am trying to beat Nitrogen today for better or worse. Respect her a ton but I think this field towers over what she's been facing...problem is there are so many directions to go...I don't know what she's been doing really but May Day Ready's BC Juvy Filly effort was something, I'll probably lean on her and Oppulent Restraint who looks too slow but I think is one Chad is high on especially as the year goes along and has hinted he thinks she needs the distance.

Also, one more chance to unofficially look stupid but I don't see why everyone seems to prefer Intellect to Donegal Momentum. I get the racing dynamics part of it but I thought DM finished up great and was not ever threatened/might not let Intellect by if it came to it...again, I get it but I think DM is trending upward and really nice, really love the stride and think there is yet more upside. Mountain Bear is who I consider the main danger (and I'll await the return of Nantasket Beach who I was really intrigued with).

Good luck everyone.

This is a redboard but I just didn’t like the pace setup for DM that race. I had tossed DM and bet Intellect and Think Big in all my horizontals with a few bets with Mountain Bear.

I think Opulent Restraint will be a player going forward. That was a nice race out of her yesterday.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Value: Race 7: #3 Danghereshecomesshang 12/1

Well done.. Really nice tab!

[theguarantee]

^Thanks guys.

Step Forward on Saturday broke my heart a bit not getting up for the win, that was the day to get him on his dirtied up form, paid $11.00 to place.
Uncle Barrie - shameful pick

Yesterday, Takeschargesmiling took some money and hardly ran a step after getting fractious in the gate.
Dangherecomesshang benefited from a heads up, aggressive ride by Dylan and paid $28.40/14.80

Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $79.00

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Thanks guys.

Step Forward on Saturday broke my heart a bit not getting up for the win, that was the day to get him on his dirtied up form, paid $11.00 to place.
Uncle Barrie - shameful pick

Yesterday, Takeschargesmiling took some money and hardly ran a step after getting fractious in the gate.
Dangherecomesshang benefited from a heads up, aggressive ride by Dylan and paid $28.40/14.80

Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $79.00

These numbers are amazing. Keep it up!

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Thanks guys.

Step Forward on Saturday broke my heart a bit not getting up for the win, that was the day to get him on his dirtied up form, paid $11.00 to place.
Uncle Barrie - shameful pick

Yesterday, Takeschargesmiling took some money and hardly ran a step after getting fractious in the gate.
Dangherecomesshang benefited from a heads up, aggressive ride by Dylan and paid $28.40/14.80

Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $79.00

Great start buddy

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$32.00 wagered.
$36.80 returned.

That’s why you’ve got to love this sport. Just takes one race to turn things around.

Thursday.

Race 5. #5 Edict, 8/1. I think #4 Heredia is the horse to beat and am against #3 Deep Satin who will be a short price but note that her top figure two races back came on softer ground. She could win, but I don’t want her at a short price. The #2 Les Reys intrigues me but this is a tough spot coming off the layoff. For me, I like #5 Edict who was very impressive two back, beating Heredia (both off a layoff) and ultimately running second to a good horse in Dynamic Pricing. I’ll forgive Edict for last out, which was still a decent performance but won’t be good enough to win today. In the New York, she was against better horses and probably didn’t like the added ground. She’s cutting back and she’s got Johnny V back on board and she’s going to be a big price.

Race 8. #7 Charlottesapproval, 6/1. I’m not totally sold on the ML favorite Movin’ On Up, even if it does bring back memories of one of my favorite TV shows growing up — The Jeffersons. Charlottesapproval seems better suited for a little more distance than her last out and she’s already run back to her 3YO figures so the hope is she’s ready to take a step forward. It’ll need to be a good step forward but it’s not impossible and I figure she’ll be a nice price. I do also like the #1 Ozara but I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s even lower than her 7/2 ML odds so I’ll go with the bigger price.