Two at Toga (2023)

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 4 #2 Liberty Flame 8/1 - Think this one is every bit as likely a winner as the rest in here and believe the public will be gravitating to several others so should get a square price today.

Bet Value: Race 9 #8 Channel Maker 20/1 - Always like Channel Maker when there is some cut in the ground. Clearly you can cut that morning line ~in half with the conditions and Strong Quality scratching. I was interested in trying to get Strong Quality to wire this group so easy pivot to Channel Maker for me in here today.

Good luck.

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 4 #2 Liberty Flame 8/1 - Think this one is every bit as likely a winner as the rest in here and believe the public will be gravitating to several others so should get a square price today.

Bet Value: Race 9 #8 Channel Maker 20/1 - Always like Channel Maker when there is some cut in the ground. Clearly you can cut that morning line ~in half with the conditions and Strong Quality scratching. I was interested in trying to get Strong Quality to wire this group so easy pivot to Channel Maker for me in here today.

Good luck.

You are having a VERY nice meet. Well done

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 4 #2 Liberty Flame 8/1 - Think this one is every bit as likely a winner as the rest in here and believe the public will be gravitating to several others so should get a square price today.

Bet Value: Race 9 #8 Channel Maker 20/1 - Always like Channel Maker when there is some cut in the ground. Clearly you can cut that morning line ~in half with the conditions and Strong Quality scratching. I was interested in trying to get Strong Quality to wire this group so easy pivot to Channel Maker for me in here today.

Good luck.

Another great call. Impressive

[theguarantee]

^Thanks guys. It’s been a nice Spa ‘23 for me so far. Up pretty good on the meet even if frustrated feeling like I should be up more. Hopefully can keep it rolling into August.

[moses]

Good call!

Wednesday picks.

Race 7 - #3 Portos, 10/1
Race 9 - #5 Sarah Harper, 6/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

Good luck. I circled back to Runaway Rumour a few times. She’s above 20/1. I’m putting a few bucks on Regal Realm but wouldn’t be surprised to see Runaway Rumour run well either.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

I bow to your greatness. Educate me. What did I miss with Fulgini>

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I bow to your greatness. Educate me. What did I miss with Fulgini>

Great job with Fuligni!

(Agree Hossy. Seemed like a filly that was distinctly better on turf..)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Good call!

Wednesday picks.

Race 7 - #3 Portos, 10/1
Race 9 - #5 Sarah Harper, 6/1

Porto’s paid $5.30 to place. I didn’t see Race 9 but Sarah Harper did not finish very high.

$120.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

Hoping to get back into the green.

First bet: Race 6 - #4 Destiny Star, 4/1. The works on this horse have been phenomenal. Half sibling Kentucky Kiss broke maiden on the turf. I don’t love taking a short price in a 2YO race but Johnny V is aboard here and have confidence this one will be given a fair shot. Maybe she gets overlooked since Hamm is her trainer?

Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Virginia Joy, 8/1. How many times has Chad Brown won a graded stakes race on turf for us all to say, “Of course, Chad Brown. How’d I miss that one?” I don’t love the pace scenario for the huge favorite War Like Goddess. She is obviously the class of this field…but she’s a late runner who may get no pace to run at. While likely front runners Elegant Taste and Vergara offer some appeal (the latter, much more so), I don’t think either of them are good enough to win this. She gets a massive jockey upgrade. Her last two races had Dylan Davis and Manny Franco aboard but she will have Prat aboard here. I think she’ll get a better trip this time around as the stalker right behind the two mentioned above and should get first run at them.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Porto’s paid $5.30 to place. I didn’t see Race 9 but Sarah Harper did not finish very high.

$120.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

Hoping to get back into the green.

First bet: Race 6 - #4 Destiny Star, 4/1. The works on this horse have been phenomenal. Half sibling Kentucky Kiss broke maiden on the turf. I don’t love taking a short price in a 2YO race but Johnny V is aboard here and have confidence this one will be given a fair shot. Maybe she gets overlooked since Hamm is her trainer?

Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Virginia Joy, 8/1. How many times has Chad Brown won a graded stakes race on turf for us all to say, “Of course, Chad Brown. How’d I miss that one?” I don’t love the pace scenario for the huge favorite War Like Goddess. She is obviously the class of this field…but she’s a late runner who may get no pace to run at. While likely front runners Elegant Taste and Vergara offer some appeal (the latter, much more so), I don’t think either of them are good enough to win this. She gets a massive jockey upgrade. Her last two races had Dylan Davis and Manny Franco aboard but she will have Prat aboard here. I think she’ll get a better trip this time around as the stalker right behind the two mentioned above and should get first run at them.

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

Interesting stat on Appleby FWIW

from 2021-Current

He is 18 Starts 4 Wins from Jan through July

He is 24 Starts 13 Wins Aug through December

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

Just saw that the 8 is scratched. I’ll take the #4 Ocean Vision, 15/1 morning line.