Two at Toga (2022)

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Feat or famine so far.
Meet totals
$40 wagered
$59.80

Thursday, 7/21 - travelling today and again not thrilled with the card.

Best Bet - Race 2: 4 No Burn 3/1
Hoping Dylan can ration out his speed today and get the distance. Second choice on the ML but I think might drift up if one or both of the 1 or 6 take money as I suspect they will.

Best Value - Race 6: 8 Jeremy's Jet 8/1
Guessing this one won't be too fancied given four attempts already but I like the experience. In his last he put away an odds on horse and just got mowed down late by a horse coming from way out of it. I thought that effort was pretty nice. Hasn't quite lasted going shorter but hoping maybe can get away a little easier with the added ground and last today.

Nice job!

2-1 on Jeremy's Jet?

[moses]

After Day 6.
Wagered: $48.00
Returned: $41.30
Record: 10 2-2-2

Posting my Friday picks now.

Best bet: Race 4 - #3 Miss Bonnie T 6/1 ML, Antonacci/Prat. I'm not sure how much pace is signed on here and this horse, at times, has shown some early pace ability and blinkers are added. From Cardenas to Prat, this is a huge upgrade at jockey, especially on turf. Her best performances put her in contention here and showing some confidence here in Prat to be able to work out the perfect trip for her. I think Beachfront Bid and I'm Glad will be heavily bet so looking to get a nice price on this one.

Best value: Race 2 - #2 Clubbing 6/1 ML, McGaughey/McCarthy. This 4 year old gelding is a full sibling to Passing Out, a 3-time winner on turf at a mile and 3rd place finisher in the Beaugay in 2020. He is a Stuart Janney / Phipps homebred who looked alright in the mud last time out but who I suspect much prefers the grass. Sired by Orb, Clubbing is a big, strapping horse with a nice long stride so I suspect he will do well in turf routes. The other thing of note for me - the Chad Brown duo seems quite a bit overrated at even money. I'm not sure how good the unraced Indemnify is but Growth Capital has come up short three times now. Fort Ticonderoga, who beat Growth Capital last time out, came back to finish 8th in an allowance race last week. I'm just not sure how good Growth Capital is and want no parts of him at even money.



Edit -- Removed Tyrannosaurus Rex in race 6 as best value and switched to Clubbing in race 2.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Race 10 is now off the turf so I'll switch that pick to Race 10 - #11 Binsky 8/1 ML. Irad is aboard so I don't know if that price will hold but Curlin horses generally seem to do OK on a wet track and I actually like the outside post for 2YOs as it gives them space out of the gate, even at the short distance.

Of course, my original pick finishes ahead of my changed pick. But neither top 2.

I have a feeling I’m going to change that Harkie pick, too. Watched some of those races and I’m not sure that horse is interested in running much and not sure how much class relief it’s actually getting.

[moses]

If Alexis Zorba stays at 2/1 in race 1, I am betting a lot of money on him. I don’t think he can lose. Should probably be below even money, imo.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

If Alexis Zorba stays at 2/1 in race 1, I am betting a lot of money on him. I don’t think he can lose. Should probably be below even money, imo.

Luckily he was bet down and saved me money.

Brown/Franco continue hot streak.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

Luckily he was bet down and saved me money.

Brown/Franco continue hot streak.

He opened dead and ran like it. Winner was bet dead, and was awesome. He could show up in the Hopeful

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

He opened dead and ran like it. Winner was bet dead, and was awesome. He could show up in the Hopeful

Yep. Any time I say a horse “can’t lose,” it’s a certainty that the horse will in fact lose.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

He opened dead and ran like it. Winner was bet dead, and was awesome. He could show up in the Hopeful

The Hopeful?

Did you put some crack in your joint this morning?

[theguarantee]

Best Bet - Race 8: 5 Palace Gossip 4/1 - I toyed around with making a case for Itsakeyper but it's just tough to take a horse in such bad form off a race at Toga last year with an all time trip, still the price is appealing and I think might just appreciate this trip, would use in exotics underneath. The more I looked though I just think of the logicals Palace Gossip is best in here. I get the case for Sassy Melissa and maybe she'll prove best. I don't really like the 1 or the 3 in here at all though and if DA is right on the ML and we get 4/1 I think that is a fair price today.

Best Value - Race 9: Sister Lou Ann 12/1 - I typically never take Saffie horses outside of Florida but I was looking for something a little off the beaten path in here. The case for Dolce Zel is fine but I just don't know that I'm that convinced she's all that imposing. Koala Princess can beat me off the layoff. Eminent Victor is probably full of upside but I don't want at the expected price. I couldn't quite get there on the others and again it's a bit of defaulting to a horse that's just done nothing wrong so far and will be a square price. Obviously has to improve but received that six month break and then ran well in June. Taking a bit of a stab in here.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

The Hopeful?

Did you put some crack in your joint this morning?

Wants dirt. Will improve on it. Watch the race ,you race watcher you.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Nice job!

2-1 on Jeremy's Jet?

Ha, yeah....would've never guessed that, I even predicted the opposite. Someone knew. Luckily I was traveling and put in a couple set it and forget it plays. Would've never picked the horse if I thought it'd be anywhere near that price.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Wants dirt. Will improve on it. Watch the race ,you race watcher you.

You know better than Chad Brown I guess.

If he wants dirt and will improve on it, don't you think he would have ran on it?

You're so stupid it's painful.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

After Day 6.
Wagered: $48.00
Returned: $41.30
Record: 10 2-2-2

Posting my Friday picks now.

Best bet: Race 4 - #3 Miss Bonnie T 6/1 ML, Antonacci/Prat. I'm not sure how much pace is signed on here and this horse, at times, has shown some early pace ability and blinkers are added. From Cardenas to Prat, this is a huge upgrade at jockey, especially on turf. Her best performances put her in contention here and showing some confidence here in Prat to be able to work out the perfect trip for her. I think Beachfront Bid and I'm Glad will be heavily bet so looking to get a nice price on this one.

Best value: Race 2 - #2 Clubbing 6/1 ML, McGaughey/McCarthy. This 4 year old gelding is a full sibling to Passing Out, a 3-time winner on turf at a mile and 3rd place finisher in the Beaugay in 2020. He is a Stuart Janney / Phipps homebred who looked alright in the mud last time out but who I suspect much prefers the grass. Sired by Orb, Clubbing is a big, strapping horse with a nice long stride so I suspect he will do well in turf routes. The other thing of note for me - the Chad Brown duo seems quite a bit overrated at even money. I'm not sure how good the unraced Indemnify is but Growth Capital has come up short three times now. Fort Ticonderoga, who beat Growth Capital last time out, came back to finish 8th in an allowance race last week. I'm just not sure how good Growth Capital is and want no parts of him at even money.



Edit -- Removed Tyrannosaurus Rex in race 6 as best value and switched to Clubbing in race 2.

Well I’ll be damned. Didn’t dislike the 2 in race 4 either but thought the 3 was better. And didn’t like Samuel aboard. Ah well. Redboard complete.

After day 7:
Wagered: $56.00
Returned:$44.30
Record 14 2-3-2

Going to hopefully post Saturday and Sunday picks this afternoon.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You know better than Chad Brown I guess.

If he wants dirt and will improve on it, don't you think he would have ran on it?

You're so stupid it's painful.

“Stupid is, as stupid does” - F. Gump

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

“Stupid is, as stupid does” - D. Rowan

FTFY

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Well I’ll be damned. Didn’t dislike the 2 in race 4 either but thought the 3 was better. And didn’t like Samuel aboard. Ah well. Redboard complete.

After day 7:
Wagered: $56.00
Returned:$44.30
Record 14 2-3-2

Going to hopefully post Saturday and Sunday picks this afternoon.

I flirted with using Rhombique as my longshot for today but chickened out. Now the redboard is really complete

[moses]

Saturday picks

Best bet: Race 10 - #5 Tobys Heart 8/1 ML, Lynch/Santana. I am a sucker for this horse but I really do think she has a lot of talent and the pace here should be very fast, allowing her to make a run at them late. Gaffalione is on the favorite and I've got no knock against her other than the likely pace scenario (which maybe doesn't matter in turf sprints quite as much) but he has been ice cold at Saratoga so far...so I'll take a shot with a horse that I've liked for a long time.

Best value: Race 11 - #5 Seaver 20/1 ML, Hills/Cardenas. A few things to note here. I don't dislike horses like Catch That Party or even Front Man, both coming out of the same race but I don't see much pace in this race. While I don't necessarily trust Luis Cardenas to give this horse the perfect ride and I don't love betting 3YOs against older in turf routes, I feel this horse is worth a shot as neither Summer Front or Queen Frostine scream "sprinter" to me and this horse may actually like the added ground. The talent on turf seems to be there as he's looked pretty good in his last two turf starts. It's a big question mark and a challenge for him, but I think he may be up to it.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I flirted with using Rhombique as my longshot for today but chickened out. Now the redboard is really complete

[moses]

Sunday picks

Best bet: Race 8 - #7 Swiftsure 2/1 ML Brisset/Santana.

Best value: Race 4 - #7 Battle Station 6/1 ML Atras/Carmouche.

[theguarantee]

The picks yesterday were not good. Continues to be feast or famine.

Saturday, 7/23
Wagered: $56.00
Returned: $84.30

Didn't find any real intriguing longshots at the Spa today...

Best Bet - Race 7: 9 Royal Dancer 4/1
Speedball shortens up today which I usually don't necessarily like on turf as much as dirt but the last couple efforts make her very tough in here to me. In particular last out where she ran the rest of the speeds into the ground (check their beyer patterns) and really fought on gamely at a tough distance against Dream Central and Robyn and Eli. I know the latter disappointed since but DC came back running and the R&E race is too bad to be true so thinking she's just totally lost form or something went wrong. I think she's just better than those who have had turf tries in here so if Tough Street doesn't really take to the grass I think she'll prevail.

Best Value - Race 10: 3 Star Devine 9/2
Seems a notch below the best in here perhaps but lightly raced with upside and love the tactical speed which should ensure a good trip sitting just behind what should be a solid pace (I know). Needs to find a little more in the lane but think she can, especially on the cutback to 5.5 where I thought her return off a long layoff at Keeneland in April was excellent. Hoping third off the bench she's ready for a move forward today.

Good luck