Two at Toga

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Wednesday, August 26.


Best bet: Race 5 - #3 Checksandbalances (8/5 ML). A stumble at the start proved to be too difficult for Checksandbalances to overcome last time out, though she finished a gamely 3rd by only a neck. Without the stumble, I think she wins easily.

Longshot: Race 7 - #1 Buy Land and See (8/1 ML). I'm not totally convinced that Buy Land and See will like a 5.5 furlong sprint but with all the speed signed on for this race, my guess is he can sit off the pace a bit. I'm going to trust Jose Ortiz to work out a perfect trip for this one and hope that he'll be flying late.

Best bets: $40.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $40.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $80.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.

Well, I ended up with two 3rd place finishers. I guess that's better than what I've been doing but still pretty pathetic. Checksandbalances ended up being the horse you wanted out of her most recent race...but the two that beat her were much, much better. I'm not sure I could have ended up on the longshot that finished 2nd but Rosario's horse had some appeal but I discounted her. As far as Race 7, there is no freaking way I would have made my pick if I knew he’d go off at 3/1. Ah well. I actually ended up putting a few bucks on Jack and Noah in that race. It made zero sense that he was 5/1, though didn’t think he’d win as easily as he did.

Moving on to today. Thursday, August 27.

Best bet: Race 1 - #2 Posse Can Disco (5/1 ML). None of these horses look very inspiring, particularly the ones who have already raced. The #2 Posse Can Disco is a first time starter but comes into this one with two very good workouts and draws Ricardo Santana who I have no problem leaning on in a dirt sprint.

Longshot: Race 6 - #6 Flashing Red (10/1 ML). I'm not fully understanding the 1/1A as a 6/5 morning line favorite so I think this is a race where we might see a price. I'm not crazy about the horses that have raced on turf so I'm looking for a horse that might like the surface switch. This one has never raced on turf but her dirt figures could put her in the mix if she takes a liking to the grass. I'm a little bit intrigued with her being claimed and switched immediately to the turf, which she may like based on pedigree. The other first time turf starter that I like in here is the #3 Glass Ceiling but she's listed at 7/2 on the morning line and I wouldn't be shocked to see her lower than that based on the drop in class.

Note: Race 6 may come off the turf. NYRA reported about a half hour ago that the turf races are ON...for now. If that changes, I'll have to switch it up.

Best bets: $44.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $44.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $88.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.

[theguarantee]

I’ll update tomorrow when I have more time.

Best Bet: Race 3 #4 Value Proposition
Best Value: Race 7 #3 Getmotherarose

GL.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I ended up with two 3rd place finishers. I guess that's better than what I've been doing but still pretty pathetic. Checksandbalances ended up being the horse you wanted out of her most recent race...but the two that beat her were much, much better. I'm not sure I could have ended up on the longshot that finished 2nd but Rosario's horse had some appeal but I discounted her. As far as Race 7, there is no freaking way I would have made my pick if I knew he’d go off at 3/1. Ah well. I actually ended up putting a few bucks on Jack and Noah in that race. It made zero sense that he was 5/1, though didn’t think he’d win as easily as he did.

Moving on to today. Thursday, August 27.

Best bet: Race 1 - #2 Posse Can Disco (5/1 ML). None of these horses look very inspiring, particularly the ones who have already raced. The #2 Posse Can Disco is a first time starter but comes into this one with two very good workouts and draws Ricardo Santana who I have no problem leaning on in a dirt sprint.

Longshot: Race 6 - #6 Flashing Red (10/1 ML). I'm not fully understanding the 1/1A as a 6/5 morning line favorite so I think this is a race where we might see a price. I'm not crazy about the horses that have raced on turf so I'm looking for a horse that might like the surface switch. This one has never raced on turf but her dirt figures could put her in the mix if she takes a liking to the grass. I'm a little bit intrigued with her being claimed and switched immediately to the turf, which she may like based on pedigree. The other first time turf starter that I like in here is the #3 Glass Ceiling but she's listed at 7/2 on the morning line and I wouldn't be shocked to see her lower than that based on the drop in class.

Note: Race 6 may come off the turf. NYRA reported about a half hour ago that the turf races are ON...for now. If that changes, I'll have to switch it up.

Best bets: $44.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $44.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $88.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.

Race 6 is OFF the turf. I’ll switch my longshot pick to:

Race 8 - #1 Mischief Afoot (6/1 ML). I don’t have anything majorly bad to say about Texas Swing other than he’s coming off a long layoff and his works don’t pop out to me. Mischief Afoot on the other hand has some pretty nice recent works and looked pretty strong breaking his maiden. Perhaps this one is just in better form right now so I’ll take a shot.

[theguarantee]

With both of my picks scratched I’ll update:

Best Bet: Race 6 #1A Little Red Frog
Best Value: Race 8: #6 Danny California

[moses]

Updated the returns as Mischief Afoot finished 2nd and returned $4.80 to place.

Friday, August 28.

Best bet: Race 3 - #6 Principal Dancer (7/2 ML). Principal Dancer ran well at this level last time out and now gets a jockey upgrade with Luis Saez taking over for a barn that has been pretty hot recently. The very minor cutback from 6.5 furlongs to 6 shouldn't make a huge difference but I think he'll like the slightly shorter distance.

Longshot: Race 8 - #5 Night Time (15/1 ML). Based on the workouts, Dale Romans seems to have this one cranked up. Last race, Night Time got bumped a few times at the start and then would not settle. That race was also off a long layoff, so I'll forgive him for that. If we look back to his 2YO dirt races, he should be able to win against this bunch with a little bit of improvement. This will be his first race against older horses, so there's obviously a little concern there but it's also nearly September and these 4YOs are beatable.


Best bets: $48.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $48.00 wagered. $23.60 returned.
Total: $96.00 wagered. $41.80 returned.

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $64.00
Returned: $79.20

Best Bet: Race 9 #2 Micheline
Best Value: Race 7 #3 Matta

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Updated the returns as Mischief Afoot finished 2nd and returned $4.80 to place.

Friday, August 28.

Best bet: Race 3 - #6 Principal Dancer (7/2 ML). Principal Dancer ran well at this level last time out and now gets a jockey upgrade with Luis Saez taking over for a barn that has been pretty hot recently. The very minor cutback from 6.5 furlongs to 6 shouldn't make a huge difference but I think he'll like the slightly shorter distance.

Longshot: Race 8 - #5 Night Time (15/1 ML). Based on the workouts, Dale Romans seems to have this one cranked up. Last race, Night Time got bumped a few times at the start and then would not settle. That race was also off a long layoff, so I'll forgive him for that. If we look back to his 2YO dirt races, he should be able to win against this bunch with a little bit of improvement. This will be his first race against older horses, so there's obviously a little concern there but it's also nearly September and these 4YOs are beatable.


Best bets: $48.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $48.00 wagered. $23.60 returned.
Total: $96.00 wagered. $41.80 returned.

Another runner I would have never picked if I knew the post time odds. But that’s part of the challenge, I guess. Getting back $2.50 for Principal Dancer’s 2nd place finish. Maybe Night Time can make it up for me.

[Alabama Stakes]

Maybe he can...... good job Mo

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Maybe he can...... good job Mo

Thanks. Had a crappy day as my car overheated with my two little ones in it with me. All good now. But it was nice to be able to hit this one. Haven't been able to look at tomorrow's races but hopefully I can build off of this.

Best bets: $52.00 wagered. $20.70 returned.
Longshots: $52.00 wagered. $54.60 returned.
Total: $104.00 wagered. $75.30 returned.