2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[Kasept]

UPCOMING UNDERCARD STAKES PROBABLES

The following is an early rundown of known possible starters in Derby Week stakes races, according to assistant racing secretary and stakes coordinator Dan Bork:

$400,000 ALYSHEBA (GII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Call Me George, Honor Code, Noble Bird, Ride On Curlin. Possible: Den’s Legacy.

$300,000 LA TROIENNE (GI) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – America, Frivolous, Molly Morgan, My Miss Sophia, Pearl Turn, Sheer Drama, Stopchargingmaria, Wedding Toast. Possible: Interest Free, Tiz Windy.

$200,000 EIGHT BELLES (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Ekati’s Phaeton, Fancy and Flashy, Lavender Chrissie, Mizz Money, Promise Me Silver, Streetheart, Super Saks, Taylor S.

$150,000 EDGEWOOD PRESENTED BY FORCHT BANK (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Lady Zuzu, Pangburn, Quality Rocks. Possible: B Rockett, Sweet Opportunity, Whimsicality.

$150,000 TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ), Buster Rose, Channel Marker, Good Deed, Heitai, Positive Side, Power Alert (AUS), Something Extra, Undrafted.

$500,000 WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Chocolate Ride, Finnegans Wake, Seek Again, Umgiyo (AUS).

$500,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Bayern, C. Zee, Pants On Fire, Private Zone. Possible: The Big Beast.

$300,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS DISTAFF TURF MILE PRESENTED BY LONGINES (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Coffee Clique, I’m Already Sexy, Lady Lara (IRE), Maid On a Mission, Personal Diary, Sandiva (IRE), Solid Appeal, Strike Charmer, Tepin.

$300,000 HUMANA DISTAFF (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Classic Point, Dame Dorothy, Judy the Beauty, Princess Violet, Sweet Reason, Sweet Whiskey, You Bought Her. Possible: Clearly Confused.

$250,000 AMERICAN TURF PRESENTED BY RAM TRUCKS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – A Lot, Conquest Typhoon, Firespike, Force the Pass, Indianaughty, Metaboss, Tuba, Wireless Future, World Approval. Possible: Royal Son.

$200,000 PAT DAY MILE PRESENTED BY LG&E AND KU (GIII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Competitive Edge, Conquest Bigluck E, Hillbilly Royalty, Pain and Misery, Toasting Master, Where’s the Moon.

[Dunbar]

I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar

[tywizard]

Has a rider been named for Lovely Maria?

[Kasept]

As originally indicated by Baffert weeks ago, leaning against running either Maybelline or Luminance in the Oaks after watching them work Monday.. #15 Forever Unbridled and #16 Money'soncharlotte will get in with defections..

Lord Nelson however set for Pat Day Mile after sharp work v. Maybelline..

Kentucky Oaks

1. Condo Commando (Rodriguez)
2. I’m a Chatterbox (Jones)
3. Stellar Wind (Sadler)
4. Birdatthewire (Romans)
5. Lovely Maria (Jones)
6. Include Betty (Proctor)
7. Oceanwave (Catalano)
8. Angela Renee (Pletcher)
9. Sarah Sis (Mason)
-- Maybellene -- Possible (Baffert)
10. Eskenformoney (Pletcher)
11. Puca (Mott)
12. Shook Up (Asmussen)
-- Luminance -- Possible (Baffert)
13. Forever Unbridled (Stewart)
14. Money'soncharlotte (Breen)
----------------------------------
15. Danessa Deluxe (Navarro)
16. Callback (Baffert)
17. Wonder Gal (Gyarmati)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Kentucky Oaks

1. Condo Commando (Rodriguez)
2. I’m a Chatterbox (Jones)
3. Stellar Wind (Sadler)
4. Birdatthewire (Romans)
5. Lovely Maria (Jones)
6. Include Betty (Proctor)
7. Oceanwave (Catalano)
8. Angela Renee (Pletcher)
9. Sarah Sis (Mason)
10. Eskenformoney (Pletcher)
11. Puca (Mott)
12. Shook Up (Asmussen)
13. Forever Unbridled (Stewart)
14. Money'soncharlotte (Breen)
----------------------------------
15. Danessa Deluxe (Navarro)
16. Callback (Baffert)
17. Wonder Gal (Gyarmati)

Marty McGee confirms from Baffert that his fillies won't enter Oaks.. Forever Unbridled and Money'soncharlotte added to field of 14. Draws tomorrow..

[cakes44]

Oaks/Derby double... Stellar Wind-AP.

That is all.

[munster705]

Thoughts on Firing Line? I am leaning towards him with 5 days to post.....love the preps....ran right with the favorite in here and it sounds like they are training him to rate off the pace

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar

I agree with this. If the race is bet like it's being talked about, Upstart will be far and away the best value. Materiality would be good value too, but I prefer a horse with Upstart's foundation.

[saratogadew]

My early Oaks/Derby Double selection:

Condo Commando
By the Moon
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
West Coast Belle

OVER

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Firing Line
Stanford
Far Right

$4.00 Double
100.

[GPK]

Shows how little I follow racing these days. I had no idea Finnegans Wake was still racing.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by GPK

Shows how little I follow racing these days. I had no idea Finnegans Wake was still racing.

He races about once every month since mid last year. Workhorse.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

He races about once every month since mid last year. Workhorse.

What do you know about that word? Aren't you on vacay like 2 weeks a month?

[saratogadew]

Originally Posted by saratogadew

My early Oaks/Derby Double selection:

Condo Commando
By the Moon
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
West Coast Belle

OVER

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Firing Line
Stanford
Far Right

$4.00 Double
100.

Oaks:
Condo Commando
Oceanwave
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
Shook Up

[Scav]

Originally Posted by saratogadew

My early Oaks/Derby Double selection:

Condo Commando
By the Moon
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
West Coast Belle

OVER

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Firing Line
Stanford
Far Right

$4.00 Double
100.

Not to be rude, but are you really gonna play that? I mean, if it comes up Wind / AP, you are looking at getting 40$ or 50$ back on $4

[RHT2004]

Anyone know if they have the 2 day pick 3 this year?

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Anyone know if they have the 2 day pick 3 this year?

http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...mes-wager-menu

Yes.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Scav

Not to be rude, but are you really gonna play that? I mean, if it comes up Wind / AP, you are looking at getting 40$ or 50$ back on $4

Not even that. Last year the chalk P3 paid $4.25 per $50c. Everyone had those 3 in their wheels. I won and lost money. The double was $5.70 per $1

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar

FWIW, I'm less confident now that Dortmund will be "significantly overbet". With post positions considered, and most of Dortmund's toughest competition drawing poorly, I'd make Dortmund a 9-2 fav in a no-vig line. So, if he goes off at 4-1 or higher, I wouldn't think that's "overbet".

--Dunbar

[pmayjr]

Any word on El Kabeir?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Any word on El Kabeir?

He'll be fine but no Preakness. Issue was a quarter crack on the inside of the hoof. Was with Terranova before Derby as it happens and he said he'll concentrate on down the road opportunities. Nothing set as target yet. He was disappointed but not heartbroken. Just hopes he gets back with another 3yo.