Derby Favorite

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

To factor in the Derby, Carpe Diem would have to magically get 5-6 lengths faster basically overnight and adjust to a chaotic 20-horse scramble after getting two of the easiest trips you will ever see in his preps. Anything below 10-1 on him would be a massive underlay.

i don't understand this argument as everyone will be facing the same 20-horse field and traffic problems galore, why is this only problematic for CD? we all know it doesn't matter how fast your horse is, b/c in a 20-horse field nothing is guaranteed, starting with the draw.

Honestly i have never seen AP run, but Dortmund's win in the SA derby was kind of a cake walk as well, yet everyone praises the performance as life altering. My take, he was up against a field in which NOBODY closed, and nobody pressured him....he put away horses IMO have no business heading to KY.....yet he dominated, which he should have, somewhat like CD.

I think a lot of people are putting emphasis into his race 2 back against FL, especially since FL goes out and dominates the Sunland Derby by 15. Personally, i think a better horse, a horse who can close would/should have gone by Dortmund that day, i don't think FL wanted to go by.....having said that, i believe if horses are given the same chance/scenario as FL, they will go by in the derby



-bt-