Derby Favorite

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by senator L

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo

No way. Since they set it up for 20 parimutuel entries, I can only think of a handful who were that short, and they were standouts going in. This is a deep crop. Plus, with bombs like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the crowd just won't let those who look to be 50-1 go off at those prices. Unless there are a couple of big defections, it's a 7-2 or 4-1 favorite.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

No way. Since they set it up for 20 parimutuel entries, I can only think of a handful who were that short, and they were standouts going in. This is a deep crop. Plus, with bombs like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the crowd just won't let those who look to be 50-1 go off at those prices. Unless there are a couple of big defections, it's a 7-2 or 4-1 favorite.

I see 4/5-1 unless something sensational happens.

[ateamstupid]

My guess is Dortmund at around 7-2. There's no way anyone will be close to 2-1.

[cakes44]

AP will be the solid favorite after he dominates next weekend IMO. 3-1.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by cakes44

AP will be the solid favorite after he dominates next weekend IMO. 3-1.

He would have to damn near lap that Ark Derby field to be bet down to 3-1, IMO.

Unless he or Dortmund win their next race by the length of the stretch, I just cant see any horse in the race going off at 3-1.

Even if the favorite sits at 3-1 throughout the day, people will play elsewhere thus raising the favorite's odds, again, imo.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

He would have to damn near lap that Ark Derby field to be bet down to 3-1, IMO.

Unless he or Dortmund win their next race by the length of the stretch, I just cant see any horse in the race going off at 3-1.

Even if the favorite sits at 3-1 throughout the day, people will play elsewhere thus raising the favorite's odds, again, imo.

Might be right.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Might be right.

Let's just hope I'm DEFINITELY right in choosing which 4 will hit the line first!


There's just so many choices with this crop, I'm hoping Firing Line gets overlooked because he beat up on lesser quality in the Sunland Derby, but his close calls w/ Dortmund will keep his number from being high.

[senator L]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

No way. Since they set it up for 20 parimutuel entries, I can only think of a handful who were that short, and they were standouts going in. This is a deep crop. Plus, with bombs like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the crowd just won't let those who look to be 50-1 go off at those prices. Unless there are a couple of big defections, it's a 7-2 or 4-1 favorite.

Probably right with 20 horses. The last (2) winners that were 2-1
were Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus. If Dortmund wins the SA Derby
I think he'll be 2-1 or 3-1 at highest. That would make him 8 8 0 0
and Baffert is his trainer, those two things alone will take a lot of money