Social Inclusion -- what would you do?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Thanks.

I don't have pps yet, but off the top of my head, everything I said is true.

By your reasoning, I guess you'd hold off an opinion on the 1980 Woodward.

By your reasoning, the favorite should win every race. You state opinions like fact, and ignore the whole concept of handicapping, which is essentially trying to figure out scenarios where a whole variety of horses can be successful, and then try to get a handle on horses' relative chances in relation to their odds. If you honestly believe that California Chrome's likely odds are a fair representation of his actual chances of winning, I will strongly disagree. Horses going for a Triple Crown sweep have historically been the greatest underlays in racing. California Chrome will be no different.

Nobody knowledgeable will disagree that he is the likeliest winner. Maybe his chances of winning are as high as 40%, though I suspect they are closer to 30%, which makes him an extraordinary underlay. The Belmont is an unusual race, as distance is a proven equalizer, and the distance can, and likely will, magnify any less than perfect event during the race.

Wicked Strong, to use one example, was hardly proven dramatically inferior in the KY Derby when you compare relative trips. He is also back home, for a trainer whose horses have been running lights out over the last two months, and coming into the race off a sensational workout. He is also a horse that may well be better suited to 1 1/2 miles than California Chrome, which would likely be the most important factor.

Tonalist would have to improve off his Peter Pan effort, but given he was coming off an extended, almost three month, layoff going into that race, that is reasonable to expect. His prior race, an against the bias second, where he finished well ahead of Wicked Strong, to the eventual Florida Derby winner, suggests he didn't just move forward in the mud. In fact, he ran off last time after breaking slowly, yet still won fairly easily. Whether one selects him or not, there is a fair argument that he is a major contender.

Ride on Curlin seems to be an honest horse that essentially runs well each time he runs. He also looks to me like a horse that will like 1 1/2 miles more than California Chrome, which could easily close the gap in their abilities. Plus, given that the Belmont pretty much always has a faster than par pace, he figures to benefit more from dynamics than the favorite.

Hey, I'm not his biggest fan, but there are also reasonable arguments for Commanding Curve to move forward and also prefer the 1 1/2 miles over his chief competition. Regardless, there are cases to be made for more than a few horses, and given that the Belmont has hardly proven the easiest handicapping puzzle over the years, just handing the race to California Chrome, with no significant conversation about the relative merits of the other players, is not handicapping. It's also not how anyone has ever been successful in predicting races over time.