Social Inclusion -- what would you do?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There's no clear-cut right answer to this.

The Belmont would appear the worst idea, but this horse would be extremely dangerous with a loose early lead.



Go watch the tape of his second career start, when he got loose through soft early fractions. He would have stayed 2 miles, with that trip.

Da' Tara had 3 lengths on them, after a quarter mile, in the 2008 Belmont. He drew off to win by more than 5 lengths and paid $79.00 to win.

After that blowout Belmont win by more than 5 lengths, Da' Tara was subsequently 0-for-11, failing five different times at the allowance level.

Social Inclusion was subjected to wide stalking trips chasing lively paces in both the Wood and Preakness. He's no longer feared. Horses like California Chrome and Samraat will not test him early.

Obviously, the loose lead is there for the taking, with Social Inclusion. The questions about his ability to get the distance will be to his benefit -- as rival jockeys will be less inclined to make a pre-mature move to confront him.

Personally, if he was my horse, I'd either skip the weekend or take a stab in the Belmont -- depending upon how the trainer believes he's doing coming up to this race.

Without seeing who goes in the other two races, provided those two races are what they typically are, it seems obvious that his best chance at a win is in the race he'll almost certainly get clear, the Belmont.

I think he's the only horse in there with a real shot to beat chrome.