Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Looking at the forecast, I strongly suspect the turf races are coming off. With that in mind, not going to stick with Midnightloveaffair. Instead, here are my Thursday picks.

Race 6. #7 Big Heleonora, 12/1. Linda got this horse on the worktab in April and immediately shipped her up to Saratoga where she put in a few strong workouts and seems to be in maintenance mode. She does pretty well with FTS and Rice/Carmouche is clicking at 18% here at Saratoga for a $3.00 return. The projected favorite is a 2YO from Ellis who ships for the first time and whose debut figure is nothing special.

Race 9. #5 The Wine Steward, 6/1. The #2 Bank Frenzy is a pretty nice horse but doesn’t own figures so much better than this field that I want to bet him at 3/1. The likely favorite #9 Whatchatalkinabout has had two very strong races to start his 4YO year. But if you look back at Whatchatalkinabout compared to The Wine Steward, you’ll see that The Wine Steward beat him at Saratoga in the Funnycide in their 2YO season.

Since that race, the two horses have taken very different paths. The Wine Steward stepped up in class and performed well, with place finishes in the Breeders Futurity, Lexington, and Peter Pan before faltering in the Belmont Stakes. Meanwhile, Whatchatalkinabout stayed in the lower ranks and faced off against NY Bred and allowance horses until May of this year when he won the John Nerud Stakes.

But back to The Wine Steward. He had a nice stakes win to start off his 4YO year and was immediately thrown to the wolves again, trying to keep up with Saudi Crown and Banishing in the Oaklawn Park Mile and unsurprisingly getting run into the ground (though holding on for third.) While the last race for him at Lonestar Park might make you think he doesn’t like a wet track, he seemed to run just fine two back in the mud. I’d guess his very wide trip around both turns was more to blame than anything. Even the very talented Touchuponastar (you might disagree with this assessment if your name is Chad Brown) came up empty in the stretch after being wide throughout. It seems like you wanted to be near the rail that day. So I’m going to throw that race out. The Wine Steward ran back to his prior season numbers in his 4YO debut. He then had two impossible tasks. This is a much easier spot and I’d expect him to, at minimum, run back to his 4YO debut figure and I’d guess he improves on that. If he does, he’s going to win. And, oh yeah, Prat is aboard. I just hope his presence doesn’t deflate the odds too much.