The Weak and Confused: Charlatan Didn’t Win a Bloated Race in Saudi Arabia

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Again, that's the irony of the results of the Saudi Cup. There is basically little competition for Charlatan and yet he still found a way to lose the race. I'm not sure why the people that previously anointed him as the best older horse in America despite not ever having won a two-turn race and seemed to be salivating that he'd get to run in a $20 million race around one-turn are suddenly changing gear and talking about how "heroic" and "game" the horse was Saturday. He should have won by 10 lengths against that field if we presume that Knicks Go was always going to fold in a duel (as many predicted).

The fact that Charlatan himself couldn't ultimately handle pace pressure or relax in the early stages of the race pretty much exposes him as far as routes go despite the paltry competition on the scene. Maybe those limitations have to do with Mike Smith's awful race riding, but until proven otherwise he is still simply a superior sprinter.

Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes two turns?
Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes 10 furlongs?

The only way he will win a race like the Gold Cup or the Pacific Classic is if we get the usual paceless, small fields we've seen in CA for decades now.

In a field of even modest quality with a fair pace scenario, I could fathom horses like Code of Honor or Express Train running this horse down, never mind Maxfield, at 10 furlongs. There's also Performer and Mystic Guide waiting in the wings that are better suited to routes. Silver State and The Sound have won 3 straight allowances a piece and have enough speed to make Charlatan work early.

But don't hold your breath for any of this to get settled on the racetrack. Unless Baffert goes for the Met Mile (which would suggest he has no plans to run the horse 10 furlongs) I would fully expect Charlatan to remain in the friendly confines of facing Tizamagician, Extra Hope, Kiss Today Goodbye, and Independence Hall, probably in the San Diego and Pacific Classic.

And if Charlatan does happen to make it to the BC Classic, it would be presumptuous to think Mishriff wouldn't point for the race himself, especially if he gives a good account of himself in the Dubai World Cup. The horse clearly handles the dirt (Baffert even conveniently red-boarded that Mishriff was always the horse to beat) and is in the barn of a trainer who formerly trained in CA and won the BC Classic with this horse's similarly Euro-based grandsire...

To answer the questions, no I don't think he'll improve going two turns and no, I don't expect him to improve going 10f. But I expect very few horses of today's stakes horses to be better going longer than shorter.

I'm sure you've heard the old one about the two guys being chased by a bear and the first guy says to the other "you can't outrun a bear". To which the second guy says "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just need to beat you." I bring this up to say that if Charlatan was facing top horses going two turns or 10f, I might share your doubts about how well he'd perform. But in the absence of any horses that I look at and think they are good horses, it increases my optimism about Charlatan. He doesn't have to be a great horse, he just has to be faster than the other horses against him. To this point, I see no other horses that I would pick against him with any confidence, with Mishriff being the obvious exception. You mentioned Code of Honor, Express Train, Performer, Mystic Guide, Silver State, The Sound, and Maxfield. The only horse among those that I see anywhere close to as talented as Charlatan is Maxfield and again, he's under the same red flag health wise as Charlatan is, maybe even a bigger one. At this point, I'm taking Charlatan against any of them going any distance. Hopefully, we get the chance to see it play out on the track although the chances of that aren't very high.