Weekend Stakes Beyers: Gun Runner 110

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Again, I realize numbers are impossible to be accurate for every circumstance, and this was a 5f race on synthetic, but her performance was better than a 57 indicates.

Not that I'm calling the figure maker stupid, but to me, that was unrealistic, even knowing that figures dont account for things like how easily a horse wins.

If the par for that type of race is really two points higher than what the winner scored, well, I have trouble accepting that performance was below average. That is absurd.

You clearly have no idea how speed figures are made. By the way, I make the Golden Gate Beyers.

There is no visual element to a final time speed figure. Not one iota. IN fact, in situations where horses are "geared down" late the figures often suffer. That created a big problem in a race like last year's Awesome Again, where California Chrome was clearly slowed to a point where the final time was affected.

Synthetics are very tricky for figure making. While the speed of the surface is very consistent, they are highly dependent on pace. Could I have treated Kimberlea K's race different because it had a fast pace for the level? Sure, there's an argument to be made, but at 5fs, you are sure to get into trouble projecting speed figures based on 1/4 mile times.

The good thing about it is that she is a 2YO filly who was debuting, so there are ample opportunities for her to run and prove me wrong.