A funny thing happened on the way to the coronation...

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You guys are a lot more optimistic about the election than I am. I think Hillary will win. I don't think she is a sure thing. The IDP poll gives me some hope. They have been the most accurate poll in the last few elections and they have Trump up by 2%. But even if Trump squeaks out a victory in the popular vote, I'm not particularly optimistic about him winning the election. As I have posted before, I think there is plenty of voter fraud out there. That gives Hillary a big edge in a close election.

I know you guys have said that the polls are overrepresented with democrats, but hasn't that been the case in past elections too? In the past few elections, the polls have turned out to be pretty accurate.

These polls have been overweighted because there are, traditionally, more Democrats than Republicans. The past two elections were even more heavily weighted because of the Obama enthusiasm among the African American community, who traditionally have not gone out to vote in the same numbers as whites. They never adjusted these back down, so she has always been showing higher.

Problem - They overplayed their hand in the early voting (EV) states as her turnout has been anemic relative to Republican support. Florida's Dem EV, for instance, is alarmingly much lower than they had expected, and she now needs an Obama-like turnout on tomorrow to carry the state. Nate Sliver has all but given FL to Trump.

The same scenario has played out in NC which has been a solid Left/Leaning Left state until EV closed, it is now a toss up/leaning Right state. CO and NV are in the same boat. She is in serious danger of losing MI and PA, and has unscheduled events there in a desperate attempt to shore up her support.

There is full out panic in the campaign. You can see it in Robbie Mook's face as he is being interviewed today. They know there is no way they are going to get the turnout they need to win AZ, OH, FL, NC. They are struggling to hold leaning left states of NH, NV, CO, MI and, if EV turnout is any indication, will lose all 4.

I didn't think I'd be as confident the evening before ED, but I don't have much doubt about President Trump Wednesday morning.