3yo recap and updated Derby Chances

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Horses like Cryptoclearence (who was before me) and Street Sense were more effective when deep closing tactics were applied.

Street Sense was a Street Cry for God's sakes ... maybe Neill Howard is a friend - but when you've got a Distorted Humor to a More Than Ready running pace figures 10 lengths slower than Giacomo runs ... you're not doing something right.

I agree that the recent tactics have been foolish.

Cryptoclearance was trained by Scotty Schulhofer, who could have trained the speed out of The Factor.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm guessing you don't bet....as this is one horrendous opinion.

You would be wrong, I do bet, mostly Penn National and River Downs so I am more use to claimers but don't do badly in grade 1's. Why do you find my interest in Master of Hounds so horrendous?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

You would be wrong, I do bet, mostly Penn National and River Downs so I am more use to claimers but don't do badly in grade 1's. Why do you find my interest in Master of Hounds so horrendous?

Because he isn't a dirt horse.

Do you think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel in the English Guineas?

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Horses like Cryptoclearence (who was before me) and Street Sense were more effective when deep closing tactics were applied.

Street Sense was a Street Cry for God's sakes ... maybe Neill Howard is a friend - but when you've got a Distorted Humor to a More Than Ready running pace figures 10 lengths slower than Giacomo runs ... you're not doing something right.

Cryptoclearance broke his maiden by 12 lengths going 7fs at Saratoga. I think it was his third lifetime start.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Because he isn't a dirt horse.

Do you think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel in the English Guineas?

I don't think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel at Churchill Downs. Saying he isn't a dirt horse is a bit premature in my opinion...his breeding indicates turf preference but he handled the surface in Dubai so there is no reason he might not enjoy dirt. Stamina certainly wouldn't be a problem...not out of the question he could be a legit factor. Would like to see him run in a prep here of course.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I don't think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel at Churchill Downs. Saying he isn't a dirt horse is a bit premature in my opinion...his breeding indicates turf preference but he handled the surface in Dubai so there is no reason he might not enjoy dirt. Stamina certainly wouldn't be a problem...not out of the question he could be a legit factor. Would like to see him run in a prep here of course.

Funny stuff. Thanks.

[iamthelurker]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Funny stuff. Thanks.

You cant just play nice with people can you? HAHA

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Because he isn't a dirt horse.

Do you think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel in the English Guineas?

Yeah as far as derbies go, I would've thought more Epsom than Kentucky.

Incidentally, I was looking at MOH's pedigree and realized Sadler's Wells turned 30 this year. I wasn't expecting him to be that old. He's still hanging around the paddock as a healthy pensioner, I assume.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

...His breeding indicates turf preference but he handled the surface in Dubai so there is no reason he might not enjoy dirt.

I'll admit he ran a hell of a lot better than I thought he would in Dubai (even though he did look better the two morning before the race compared to his stable companions), but saying a horse will get over dirt because he handled Tapeta is void of all logic. And if you don't think that is foolish, just think of it this way...if you say it for him, you'd have to say it for every other winner there, and we KNOW that is far from the truth. It's not even a brutally weak argument, it's a non-starter.

[johnny pinwheel]

the percentages are pretty good. except for to honor and serve. i can't see him ahead of soldat or gourmet dinner or even stay thirsty for that matter. the horse looked like crap last time out. the race was not even close, two horses i just mentioned pretty much kicked his butt in. his wins are very slow, where they let him walk on the lead....i'm waiting to see how much money this one burns again saturday, hes got a slight chance but he will be hopelessly overbet again this week, and your bias of making him a top 5 makes my case.the horse has not one race that makes him look competitive. if he repeats his last race like i think he will...the air will be out of the tires on this bandwagon. that horse has to prove he does not need an easy lead for me to even consider him. which means he has to win the next one...i'm saying "good luck" with that.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I don't think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel at Churchill Downs. Saying he isn't a dirt horse is a bit premature in my opinion...his breeding indicates turf preference but he handled the surface in Dubai so there is no reason he might not enjoy dirt. Stamina certainly wouldn't be a problem...not out of the question he could be a legit factor. Would like to see him run in a prep here of course.

FYI, they dont run on dirt in Dubai.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

FYI, they dont run on dirt in Dubai.

That's why I said "surface" not "dirt"....he is in good form and ran well on that surface, his connections will know if he could possibly handle dirt and will decide his future accordingly. All I ever said was he impressed me more the other horses this past weekend, I really don't need the know it all sarcasm!

[slotdirt]

There's an awful long list of horses whose form has translated well from Tapeta to the Churchill Downs surface. Er...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Tapeta at Presque Isle is some pretty f'in fun sh!t.

I've seen it playing insanely slow - I've seen it playing insanely fast - I've seen some hardcore dead rails for extended periods - I've seen some inside-speed biases that would put old Keeneland dirt to shame for extanded peroids.

For whatever reason though - closers have always performed miserably over it. In general, those are the worst kind of horses you could ever bring in here. Front end and pressing turf horses - can magically improve over PID's Tapeta version. Most dirt horses do a lot better than you might think - just as long as they have some speed.

I have no idea about Dubai's Tapeta. The climate between Erie and Dubai is probably a little bit different.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I have no idea about Dubai's Tapeta. The climate between Erie and Dubai is probably a little bit different.

How about the religious climate? Would you still be the only Jew there if you moved from Erie to Dubai?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

You cant just play nice with people can you? HAHA

Go help your Mother in the barn.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

How about the religious climate? Would you still be the only Jew there if you moved from Erie to Dubai?

I just found out that our local 'mush' of the century - Meyer Lansky - is Jewish.

In fact - four of the people who frequently sit at my fathers table at PID are Jewish. I didn't even know we had Jews in Erie. That's the problem with them ... you can't spot them by looking at them... and they all don't have obvious Jewy names like Finklestein.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I just found out that our local 'mush' of the century - Meyer Lansky - is Jewish.

In fact - four of the people who frequently sit at my fathers table at PID are Jewish. I didn't even know we had Jews in Erie. That's the problem with them ... you can't spot them by looking at them... and they all don't have obvious Jewy names like Finklestein.

Doug is a pretty good giveaway name for Jewyness though. I have several cousins named Dougie, and not a one is Woppy in the least.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

That's why I said "surface" not "dirt"....he is in good form and ran well on that surface, his connections will know if he could possibly handle dirt and will decide his future accordingly. All I ever said was he impressed me more the other horses this past weekend, I really don't need the know it all sarcasm!

thats hilarious coming from you.

Tapeta is nothing like dirt. If anything it shows off turf ability. It means Zero when applied to dirt form.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

thats hilarious coming from you.

Tapeta is nothing like dirt. If anything it shows off turf ability. It means Zero when applied to dirt form.

Did I say it was similar to dirt? All I said was he handled the surface well. The horse has run 6 times, prior to the UAE Derby he had one win and a couple seconds, nothing earth shattering to be sure...trying him on the dirt is not so far-fetched and his connections might just roll the dice...or not!