7/4: Monmouth (P5); Belmont (P4); Queen's Plate; Firecracker

[Kasept]

Left a lot of money on the table in heart-breaking fashion Saturday with anchor leg shutout of the late P4 at Monmouth and a quad miss at Belmont that hurt. I wasn't close in the Oceanport nightcap after tying Pletcher chalk Hunter's Bay, $9.60 U.N. winner Chinchon and $16 Salvator 'all button' hero Gone Astray together to be live to 4 horses for real money. At Belmont, omission Onzain out-gamed my 15-1 wiseguy runner Mr. Enrico to prevent a very sizable four score. I've been taking beats like this for an extended period, but get the feeling that the pendulum is swinging in the right direction. On the plus side, had the correct idea in the Suburban laying out the mutuels exactly with Haynesfield getting the job done, and caught a nice triple before that with Pegasus Tommy D keying the $117 bingo. The 7th-9th P3 of Ad Infinitum-Pegasus Tommy D-Haynesfield was positive too, helping defray the afternoon's expenses with a $132 contribution.

Hope you did OK and are ready for a great 4th of July! Redboard King runs for the Lime and Royal of Dee Tee at Philadelphia later, and I hope partners and their families have a safe and fun holiday! Here's the complete stakes inventory for Independence Day, which includes the Queen's Plate, Canada's Derby, and the oldest race of its' kind in North America...

PRIORESS S. (G1), Belmont Park, $250,000, 3yo, f, 6f.
JERSEY SHORE S. (G3), Monmouth Park, $200,000, 3yo, 6f.
Miss Liberty S., Monmouth Park, $100,000, 3&up, f&m, 1 1/16mT.
FIRECRACKER H. (G2), Churchill Downs, $175,000, 3&up, 1mT.
AMERICAN H. (G2), Hollywood Park, $150,000, 3&up, 1 1/8mT.
CHICAGO H. (G3), Arlington Park, $100,000, 3&up, f&m, 7f.
Queen's Plate S. (r), Woodbine, $1,000,000, 3yo, 1 1/4m.
Highlander S. (Can-G2), Woodbine, $200,000, 3&up, 6fT.
Singspiel S. (Can-G3), Woodbine, $150,000, 3&up, 1 1/2mT.


MONMOUTH PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th (3:20p): MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Pin Turn 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 All About Alex 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Somalia 3-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Dover Crescent 7-2 WON ($6.80)


7th: NJ-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Dead Money 4-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Goombada Guska 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #3 Dream Waltz 8-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Perky Juge 12-1 3rd


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Impossible group, and note that #14 (AE) Holyfield becomes major player should he draw in; #13 (AE) Rock Solid Arch is a value interest for exotics use should he get the opportunity to run.. Use as many as you can afford for the multis..

Most Likely: #14 Holyfield 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Red Elephant 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Awesome Son 12-1 WON ($16.80)
Super Add: #10 Footcandles 10-1 7th


9th: 19th Jersey Shore (G3), 3+, 6f (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Safe Trip 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Discreetly Mine 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #4 Christine Daae 4-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Cool Bullet 3-1 5th


10th: Miss Liberty, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Eye of Taurus 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #14 Maram 9-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Ivory Empress 15-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Stormy Relations 12-1 9th


<$100 P5 Play:

6: 1-2-4
7: 4-7
8: 6-14
9: 2-4-5-6
10: 2-8-11-14

3x2x2x4x4 = 196 x .50 = $96



BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th (4:12p): NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Trust Fund Kid 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #6 Triple Latte 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Make Mine Chocolate 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Es Mia 6-1 5th


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very well-matched group.. Tough call, and 'first time R. Rodriguez' (as discussed Saturday) complicates matters..

Best Value: #4 Song for Pupcake 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1a In Te Domine 5-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Lisa Jean 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Roaring Ghost 12-1 8th


9th: 63rd Prioress (G1), 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Like Saturday's Suburban, what the field lacks in quantity, it makes up for in intrigue. Franny Freud (7-5) the horse to beat, and has been pointed to this during first half of year, but there's enough other speed signed on to make her earn it every step of the three quarters. Doesn't Baffert's filly (2-1) figure to get the best trip stalking from down inside?

Most Likely: #1 Bonnie Blue Flag 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Franny Freud 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #4 Funny Feeling 8-1 5th


10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Feels like a slippery race..

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Best Value: #11 Torrone 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #5 Gracilia 3-1
Super Add: #1 By M K 6-1

SCR Add: #10 Moshe Diane 6-1 4th


<$100 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-6-9
8: 1-4
9: 1-3
10: 1-5-7-10-11

4x2x2x5 = $80

$1 P4 (4-1-3-11) Paid $110.75



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


10th (5:26p): 20th Firecracker (G2), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Very nice Churchill spring-summer meet concludes today with penultimate event drawing an overflow field including '09 Derby winner #2 Mine That Bird (3-1). Lukas trainee looms a logical bet-against in grass bow considering layoff and fact that Birdstone has yet to produce a single turf winner from the 32 that have tried it a total of 64 times..

Best Value: #6 SCR
Next Best: #4 Tizdejavu 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Inca King 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Public Speaker 8-1 2nd

SCR Add: #13 Wise River 15-1 7th



WOODBINE


POST-SCRATCHES


10th (5:38p): 151st Queen's Plate (R), CND-3yo, 10f (P3, Super)

Wonderfully deep and puzzling edition of North America's oldest classic..

Best Value: #4 Dark Cloud Dancer 15-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Mobilizer 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Hotep 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Giant's Tomb 12-1 4th


Good luck!
Steve

[pb72vett]

happy 4th nice lead at wood.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

10th (5:38p): 151st Queen's Plate (R), CND-3yo, 10f (P3, Super)[/u]

Wonderfully deep and puzzling edition of North America's oldest classic..

Best Value: #4 Dark Cloud Dancer 15-1
Next Best: #9 Mobilizer 7-2
Exotics Use: #11 Hotep 3-1
Super Add: #8 Giant's Tomb 12-1

Interesting pick. Two sprints and a hanging 2nd (though a strong effort given the setup) in a 9F off-the-turfer. And, the HERDER gets the mount, with Husbands sticking with Hotep (the other Frostad runner). You do realize that the turf poly distinction at WO is almost as pronounced as the conventional turf dirt distinction, right? Good luck.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Interesting pick. Two sprints and a hanging 2nd (though a strong effort given the setup) in a 9F off-the-turfer. And, the HERDER gets the mount, with Husbands sticking with Hotep (the other Frostad runner). You do realize that the turf poly distinction at WO is almost as pronounced as the conventional turf dirt distinction, right? Good luck.

Thx Fat.. G/L too. What direction you headed in here? I just hate taking a short number given the field size. 'Dancer' is impossible to pass up at the price given the incredible pedigree and progressive line. He's as well meant a horse as Sam-Son has produced, with the dam and grand-dam having won this and so much more. Should save ground and relish the trip, and I'll take the view that Castellano is a plus. Looking forward to this edition of the Plate...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx Fat.. G/L too. What direction you headed in here? I just hate taking a short number given the field size. 'Dancer' is impossible to pass up at the price given the incredible pedigree and progressive line. He's as well meant a horse as Sam-Son has produced, with the dam and grand-dam having won this and so much more. Should save ground and relish the trip, and I'll take the view that Castellano is a plus. Looking forward to this edition of the Plate...

For what it is (or isn't) worth, Frostad said in the TDN that he is probably the more talented of the 3.

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S


8TH

8 Judicial Leader Early


10TH

9 Holdme Kaz Early

[Kasept]

MTH SCR/CHG'S


6 Sixth Race Scratches

#10 Mettled


7 Seventh Race Scratches

#13 Agaricus


8 Eight Race Scratches

#2 Stars Night Out
#8 Corcho
#11 Stormin Bud
#12 Dark Thunder
#13 Rock Solid Arch


10 Tenth Race Scratches

#4 Nicksappealinglady
#5 Chestoria
#6 Miss Catalyst
#7 Gozzip Girl
#12 Sweeter Still

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx Fat.. G/L too. What direction you headed in here?

The problem with this race is that the best horses(s) probably won't get the best trip/setup. I can't go with your choice. I think DRD ran a very fine race last out: very wide with Husbands up, and the only horse (essentially) to gain in relation to the winner the last 2 calls. The problem I have with him is that this was an off-the-turfer; but I certainly think he can win with the right setup -- which he'll probably get.

I don't want Mobilizer because his last race was terrible -- though he certainly can win. It was impressive in the sense that he, also, was the only horse to gain against a wire to wire winner but he did so with a perfect inside drafting trip, cutting the corner on the 2nd turn to gain even a bigger advantage. And this, after Big Red Mike had been bid at earlier.

Which leaves me with BRM. Game as hell effort last out but he'll probably face early pace pressure today. I think he might be the best horse in the race but the early pace pressure and the added distance probably will work to his disadvantage and to Mobilizer's (and others') advantage. I probably won't bet BRM unless he's > 10:1.

I think the horse that ran a very strong race last out was Giant's Tomb. He was widest, without cover, the entire race and ran gamely to the end. He certainly ran better than Mobilizer. Today, with Smith up, he's ensured yet another wide run. If he's > 15:1, I'll probably bet him to win.

Good Luck

[jms62]

Woodbine Racecourse Race 10 5:38 PM Queens Plate Stk 10.0
11-Hotep 3/1
6-Smart Sky 30/1
9-Mobilizer 7/2

[NTamm1215]

I'm betting Wise River in the Firecracker. He's a completely different animal on firm turf.

NT

[SilverRP]

8 Eight Race Scratches

#2 Stars Night Out
#8 Corcho
#11 Stormin Bud
#12 Dark Thunder
#13 Rock Solid Arch


10 Tenth Race Scratches

#4 Nicksappealinglady
#5 Chestoria
#6 Miss Catalyst
#7 Gozzip Girl
#12 Sweeter Still


Why so many scratches?? Jeez

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

gl steve and happy 4th


belmont pick 4s

race 2

pp 6
pp 4
pp 3

race 3

pp 2
pp 4

race 4

pp 2
pp 4

race 5

pp 4
pp 6
pp 8 = 24.00

late

race 7

pp 4
pp 2
pp 1

race 8

pp 1
pp 4
pp 7
pp 9

race 9

pp 2
pp 3

race 10

pp 7
pp 6
pp 4
pp 1 = 96.00

[jms62]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm betting Wise River in the Firecracker. He's a completely different animal on firm turf.

NT

Churchill Downs Race 10 5:26 PM Firecracker Stk 8.0 T GIII
13-Wise River 15/1
2-Mine That Bird 3/1
11-Euro Ears 6/1

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The problem with this race is that the best horses(s) probably won't get the best trip/setup. I can't go with your choice. I think DRD ran a very fine race last out: very wide with Husbands up, and the only horse (essentially) to gain in relation to the winner the last 2 calls. The problem I have with him is that this was an off-the-turfer; but I certainly think he can win with the right setup -- which he'll probably get.

I don't want Mobilizer because his last race was terrible -- though he certainly can win. It was impressive in the sense that he, also, was the only horse to gain against a wire to wire winner but he did so with a perfect inside drafting trip, cutting the corner on the 2nd turn to gain even a bigger advantage. And this, after Big Red Mike had been bid at earlier.

Which leaves me with BRM. Game as hell effort last out but he'll probably face early pace pressure today. I think he might be the best horse in the race but the early pace pressure and the added distance probably will work to his disadvantage and to Mobilizer's (and others') advantage. I probably won't bet BRM unless he's > 10:1.

I think the horse that ran a very strong race last out was Giant's Tomb. He was widest, without cover, the entire race and ran gamely to the end. He certainly ran better than Mobilizer. Today, with Smith up, he's ensured yet another wide run. If he's > 15:1, I'll probably bet him to win.

Good Luck

gl im boxing exacta 9, 10, 11

[the_fat_man]

WO R6:

6F on the turf is Field Commission's best distance and he should be very, very tough here. I think the race shapes up particularly well for Jungle Wave, however.

Ebox 1 / 2

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Which leaves me with BRM. Game as hell effort last out but he'll probably face early pace pressure today. I think he might be the best horse in the race but the early pace pressure and the added distance probably will work to his disadvantage and to Mobilizer's (and others') advantage. I probably won't bet BRM unless he's > 10:1.

I think the horse that ran a very strong race last out was Giant's Tomb. He was widest, without cover, the entire race and ran gamely to the end. He certainly ran better than Mobilizer. Today, with Smith up, he's ensured yet another wide run. If he's > 15:1, I'll probably bet him to win.

Good Luck

Fats,

Nice work on the Plate. Hope the 5-1 didn't hold you back on Big Red Mike!