Puzzling Kentucky Derby Picture

[Bogey]

OK, so we are inside of five weeks to the Kentucky Derby and things could not be any stranger. We have a Louisiana bred, a California bred, and a New York bred as the winners of their respective last prep races. In Florida and Arkansas the latest preps have produced winners that never started until 2014 and will need to overcome the curse of Apollo. Did I mention that we have what looks like a legitimate contender from Dubai, although he's never raced on dirt. In Kentucky, we have a horse that has never won a race on dirt. There is still hope that things can change drastically in the next couple of weeks, but I can not remember things being this cloudy with less than five weeks to the Run for the Roses.

[atolunch]

Do you feel like the "new system" is playing a big part in this, or just one of those years?

Either way, I agree, it should be quite the interesting Derby and TC Chase this year.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Sounds like someone is researching the oaks/ derby double !

[South Beach Luv]

Ramsey said yesterday that Bobby's Kitten is going in the Bluegrass, another one that would be first time dirt.

[VOL JACK]

It's is amazing to me how many of the preps have been won going wire to wire.

Candy Boy's RBL stake and Intense Holiday Risen star are the only mid pack closers to win a derby prep that I have seen.
Constitution won stalking the leader yesterday.
Cairo rince won with a nice staking trip in the Holy Bull.

Maybe Tonalist will add a nice closer to the mix with a win or placing in the Wood.

[Bogey]

Larry, if Cairo Prince does not get in , it might be time to reconsider the new system.

Bill, Yeah - Right now it's Untapable / ALL - Oaks / Derby Double

Shannon, He's definitely has a shot in the Blue Frass.

[Kasept]

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

Good point. They got cute and it could backfire.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

But doesn't some of that have to do with the point system and its Grossly overweighting of late Derby Preps. In my opinion they need to weight by Grade and start with Breeders cup Juvenile. A Grade 1 Win in the Juvenile should be the same as A Grade 1 Win in March. For the most part we have had lower field sizes until late Feb and some very large ones after.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by jms62

A Grade 1 Win in the Juvenile should be the same as A Grade 1 Win in March.

I could not disagree more.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I could not disagree more.

Horses that have run in the top four in the BC have done quite well in the derby

[jms62]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I could not disagree more.

Usually when someone makes such a statement as you have they would provide a scintilla of reasoning why they feel that way. Sorry if I have such high expectations.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by jms62

But doesn't some of that have to do with the point system and its Grossly overweighting of late Derby Preps. In my opinion they need to weight by Grade and start with Breeders cup Juvenile. A Grade 1 Win in the Juvenile should be the same as A Grade 1 Win in March. For the most part we have had lower field sizes until late Feb and some very large ones after.

you need to run in order to get points...lighting up the clocks in the am for months doesn't do you any good earning your way into the gate and that's exactly what they tried doing with Cairo prince

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

[pmayjr]

the crazy thing about Cairo Prince, is IF he makes the field-

Say he took care of business yesterday, he'd probably be the luke-warm favorite for the Derby (CC, Samraat or Social I could maybe add their names to that with wins).

Now Cairo will be 2nd off the shelf. How flat he was yesterday was a little concerning. But! Now he has value if you think he'll be much more fit 2nd-off. Unless he becomes the Derby Wise-guy horse (which he might), seriously I think 15-1 is very realistic on him now. He left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths yesterday, and with how wide-open the field is, the odds will be spread out enough that you might get that price. At anything over 10-1 do you guys give him a chance?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

the crazy thing about Cairo Prince, is IF he makes the field-

Say he took care of business yesterday, he'd probably be the luke-warm favorite for the Derby (CC, Samraat or Social I could maybe add their names to that with wins).

Now Cairo will be 2nd off the shelf. How flat he was yesterday was a little concerning. But! Now he has value if you think he'll be much more fit 2nd-off. Unless he becomes the Derby Wise-guy horse (which he might), seriously I think 15-1 is very realistic on him now. He left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths yesterday, and with how wide-open the field is, the odds will be spread out enough that you might get that price. At anything over 10-1 do you guys give him a chance?

IF he gets in, I think you get every bit of 15-1.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

Yup, run your damn horses, they gambled and lost.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

I'm curious to know the graded stakes earnings chart and how it compares to the points system. Who'd be in one way but not in the other, for instance.


It might not just be a plan that backfired. Maybe he really needed that time off. Did he lose weight off the last race? The thing is if he does need time off between races to that degree (and this wasn't just a one time thing where they were trying to get strategic), he's got no business going in the Derby. If you win, you feel bound to go to the Preakness and maybe that's not the best thing for the horse. Aim for things like the Preakness or Haskell.

I'm kinda bummed about Spot's finish. I wanted me some Zito in the Derby, plus the PR for a horse named Spot is kinda great.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I'm curious to know the graded stakes earnings chart and how it compares to the points system. Who'd be in one way but not in the other, for instance.

I believe there are 11 horses that would be in with old system that are currently out with new system

current cut off 20 points.....

horses with more than 140k graded earnings but under 20 points.

Ride on Curlin
Tamarando
Strong Mandate
Rise Up
Giovanni Boldini
Candy Boy
In Trouble
Noble Moon
Conquest Titan
Dance With Fate
Casiguapo

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I'm curious to know the graded stakes earnings chart and how it compares to the points system. Who'd be in one way but not in the other, for instance.


It might not just be a plan that backfired. Maybe he really needed that time off. Did he lose weight off the last race? The thing is if he does need time off between races to that degree (and this wasn't just a one time thing where they were trying to get strategic), he's got no business going in the Derby. If you win, you feel bound to go to the Preakness and maybe that's not the best thing for the horse. Aim for things like the Preakness or Haskell.

I'm kinda bummed about Spot's finish. I wanted me some Zito in the Derby, plus the PR for a horse named Spot is kinda great.

I'm right there with you. I thought he was ready to jump up.