Goldikova: Lost a step or as good as ever?

[Merlinsky]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...tter-than-ever

Okay, so this is the first I'm hearing that she's as good as she was for previous attempts. Freddy Head is saying bah humbug to anybody who thinks otherwise. The DRF rundown of the pre-entries mentioned that she'd lost a step as have guests on ATR. Is Freddy being sentimental, or is there reason to think he's right?

[pba1817]

Play against IMO...

[tanner12oz]

If anyone feels Goldikova has slowed down a step at age 6, her trainer Freddy Head is more than willing to convince you otherwise.

As the three-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. IT) prepares to embark on her historic journey and her quest for victory No. 4, Head is confident the daughter of Anabaa is sitting on another big effort and is amazed how well she is doing for her return to the United States.



“She should be in her stall at Churchill Downs around 6 o’clock Saturday evening and I’m dying to be there,” he said. “I’m very happy with the mare and I believe she’s in as good a shape as in previous years. It seems unreal that she’s trying to win a fourth Breeders’ Cup.



"I’m very happy with her since her last run. She was only beaten a head (In the group I, seven-furlong Qatar Prix de la Foret) and earlier in the year, she was second (to Canford Cliffs in the group I Queen Anne Stakes) at Ascot. I knew that would be a tough test, because Ascot is a very testing course. She was unlucky at Deauville (in the group I Prix de Fresnay-le-Buffard-Le Jacques le Marois).



“If all goes well I think she has a big chance. She’s very special and she loves the two turns and left-handed tracks. She loves the way races are run in America and wants fast ground, not too soft. I think she’ll take a lot of beating. She looks the same, she works the same at home, and he form is as good or even better than last year. I’m coming with a lot of confidence.”



As long as he’s been riding and training, Head admits he can’t recall ever seeing a horse like Goldikova, and that includes Head’s dual Mile winner, the great Miesque.



“I try to remember ever seeing a horse like her, but I can’t,” Head said. “In France, we’ve never had a horse who has lasted for so long. It’s very special to train a 6-year-old mare. I never did, so all this is new territory for me. I’ve been very happy with her all year. As I said, she’s as good as she’s ever been.”



In five starts this year, Goldikova, owned by Wertheimer & Frere, has won twice, with three seconds--her victories coming in the group I Prix d’Ispahan and Prix Rothschild. She not only won both those stakes last year, she has won the Prix Rothschild the past four years.

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz1bz9BCqTm

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...tter-than-ever

Okay, so this is the first I'm hearing that she's as good as she was for previous attempts. Freddy Head is saying bah humbug to anybody who thinks otherwise. The DRF rundown of the pre-entries mentioned that she'd lost a step as have guests on ATR. Is Freddy being sentimental, or is there reason to think he's right?

You'd be a fool if you don't use her in multi-race plays, she'll be a "B" for me in those...but it's hard to ignore that her best peformances have ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY been in the past. You have to ask yourself if you think she re-finds that form in this race, against some European competition that has pointed to this race a long way out (Strong Suit), and one who found his best form last time and had that win franked substantially (Byword). With an in-form Courageous Cat and the late kick Gio Ponti showed last time...I think you could argue this is definitely the best field she's faced in the last four runnings, all at a time when she seems to have regressed just slightly.

I say...tip your hat if she wins, bet with 1.5 fists against, hedge slightly in multi-race plays, using her defensively.

[King Glorious]

To my untrained eye, it looks like she's lost a step or two this year. It isn't just that she's lost a couple but how she's lost them. But you also have to look at who she's lost to and there is nobody of that caliber in here so her lost step or two or even three should still be more than enough to overwhelm this group. As long as she has a good trip and runs her race, I don't see her losing and if she is to lose, it won't be because someone was better than her.

[RockHardTen1985]

Toss. She can beat me again I guess.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by pba1817

Play against IMO...

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Toss. She can beat me again I guess.

Here's what you guys gotta ask yourselves- Whether she has lost a step or not, do you wanna have a losing bet in that race because you were foolish enough to leave her off your tickets/wagers/whatever? Let's face it... The best she went up against last year (in the BC Mile) was Gio Ponti. You know she's been running against much better across the pond.

Whether she's lost a step or not, I'm not gonna risk losing a bet by trying to beat her. If you're unsure... maybe the Mile is the one race to sit out betting-wise, and just sit back and watch and hope the old girl has another awesome performance in her. For me, I don't know enough about the other entrants yet to make up my mind whether I'm gonna bet it or not.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Here's what you guys gotta ask yourselves- Whether she has lost a step or not, do you wanna have a losing bet in that race because you were foolish enough to leave her off your tickets/wagers/whatever? Let's face it... The best she went up against last year (in the BC Mile) was Gio Ponti. You know she's been running against much better across the pond.

Whether she's lost a step or not, I'm not gonna risk losing a bet by trying to beat her. If you're unsure... maybe the Mile is the one race to sit out betting-wise, and just sit back and watch and hope the old girl has another awesome performance in her. For me, I don't know enough about the other entrants yet to make up my mind whether I'm gonna bet it or not.

I have no problem tossing her in the pick 3's. Beating her turns your payout to an overlay, period. This group she is facing is strong enough. The Euro's look good. Mott's horse is good, and I'll give Mr. Commons a shot. I think the risk is worth the potential reward.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Toss. She can beat me again I guess.

This is one reason I'm glad you're back. Right or wrong, there is no waffling by you.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

This is one reason I'm glad you're back. Right or wrong, there is no waffling by you.

To be honest I have been cold since after week 1 of Toga. My entire handle for the BC program might be under $150. My opinion has sucked latley, check out todays selection thread. Goldi will likely win easily and Ill rip up my 5-4-3 $60 pick 3.

[trackrat59]

Anyone have her recent sheet numbers? I would like to know how those look.

Agree, you have to use her in your tix. That about sums it up.

[Thunder Gulch]

She may have lost a step, but this may be the weakest field she has faced. It reminds me of a buddy of mine when we were discussing Ouija Board opting for the FM Turf over the open Turf..."She's going down in class for this race". You could make the same argument for Goldlikova here. She doesn't need her absolute best to win it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by trackrat59

Anyone have her recent sheet numbers? I would like to know how those look.

Agree, you have to use her in your tix. That about sums it up.

She ran the same exact schedule this year as last... and on Thorograph, she hasn't lost a step.

Track 2010 2011
LCH 1.5 2.5
ASC 1.5 0.75
DEA 1.5 1.75
DEA 2.25 1.75
LCH 1.5 0.75

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by philcski

She ran the same exact schedule this year as last... and on Thorograph, she hasn't lost a step.

Track 2010 2011
LCH 1.5 2.5
ASC 1.5 0.75
DEA 1.5 1.75
DEA 2.25 1.75
LCH 1.5 0.75

she gained a 1/4 pt. Wow

Though don't think she's got a chance to equal last year's BC TG# of 2neg

Would love to see her win again but my tix as well will be against her.

[trackrat59]

Originally Posted by philcski

She ran the same exact schedule this year as last... and on Thorograph, she hasn't lost a step.

Track 2010 2011
LCH 1.5 2.5
ASC 1.5 0.75
DEA 1.5 1.75
DEA 2.25 1.75
LCH 1.5 0.75

Many thanks philcski!

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

To my untrained eye, it looks like she's lost a step or two this year. It isn't just that she's lost a couple but how she's lost them. But you also have to look at who she's lost to and there is nobody of that caliber in here so her lost step or two or even three should still be more than enough to overwhelm this group. As long as she has a good trip and runs her race, I don't see her losing and if she is to lose, it won't be because someone was better than her.

In one step, you say you have an untrained eye, and also assert the caliber of her competition here is weaker...can't have it both ways.

I'm absolutely, 100% confident in stating that from top to bottom (that includes Compliance Officer), the collection of horses in the BC Mile are better than any of the individual fields she faced this year...all of them. While there may have been one or two very good horses she went up against this year, there are 9 Grade/Group 1 winners in the field.

There are some pretty unaccomplished plodders that make up the also-rans in her other races. Dream Ahead, who beat her last time, ran her down to get up, had two fifth place finishes in attempts over more than 6 furlongs, beaten 12 lengths. The Prix Foret was his first win beyond 6, and the third place finisher was making his fourth lifetime start off a 173 day layoff.

Again, not going out on a crazy limb here, I'm including her, and won't be shocked with a win, but a loss is WAY more likely in this field, this year, now more than ever...This is absolutely the best field she's seen this year, and would argue, in any of her previous BC Mile appearances.

[RockHardTen1985]

Well said Pat.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

In one step, you say you have an untrained eye, and also assert the caliber of her competition here is weaker...can't have it both ways.

I'm absolutely, 100% confident in stating that from top to bottom (that includes Compliance Officer), the collection of horses in the BC Mile are better than any of the individual fields she faced this year...all of them. While there may have been one or two very good horses she went up against this year, there are 9 Grade/Group 1 winners in the field.

There are some pretty unaccomplished plodders that make up the also-rans in her other races. Dream Ahead, who beat her last time, ran her down to get up, had two fifth place finishes in attempts over more than 6 furlongs, beaten 12 lengths. The Prix Foret was his first win beyond 6, and the third place finisher was making his fourth lifetime start off a 173 day layoff.

Again, not going out on a crazy limb here, I'm including her, and won't be shocked with a win, but a loss is WAY more likely in this field, this year, now more than ever...This is absolutely the best field she's seen this year, and would argue, in any of her previous BC Mile appearances.

Pat, I think youre doing Dream Ahead a bit of disservice there. He's a 5 time G1 winner, champion sprinter and I would easily forgive him the 2 other poor runs at 7f+ this year (plus this race is run at slightly less than 7f!). They also finished miles clear of the 3rd , it was a quality performance by both and I couldnt say at all that she has lost a step. This certainly in my opinion was her best prep race for the BC Mile than her 3 previous victories..

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Pat, I think youre doing Dream Ahead a bit of disservice there. He's a 5 time G1 winner, champion sprinter and I would easily forgive him the 2 other poor runs at 7f+ this year (plus this race is run at slightly less than 7f!). They also finished miles clear of the 3rd , it was a quality performance by both and I couldnt say at all that she has lost a step. This certainly in my opinion was her best prep race for the BC Mile than her 3 previous victories..

I don't think I'm doing a disservice to Dream Ahead...a very quality animal. A great value in that race, and a horse who is one to look forward to when back next year.

I think you have to question the balance of her competition.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I'm absolutely, 100% confident in stating that from top to bottom (that includes Compliance Officer), the collection of horses in the BC Mile are better than any of the individual fields she faced this year...all of them.

One example of why I disagree...

Ascot Result
14 Jun 2011
2:30 » Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions' Series) (Group 1)

« 1 6 Canford Cliffs (IRE) 11/8 4 9-0 Richard Hannon 127 * * »
b c Tagula (IRE) - Mrs Marsh (Marju) Richard Hughes
Steadied after start, took keen hold early, held up in last trio, headway to track leaders entering final 2f, ridden to challenge entering final furlong, led final 100yds, ran on well (tchd 6-5 and 6-4 in places)


« 2 1 1 Goldikova (IRE) 5/4F 6 8-132 F Head 125 * * »
b m Anabaa (USA) - Born Gold (USA) (Blushing Groom) Olivier Peslier
Tracked leaders, headway to press leader going well over 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, hard pressed entering final furlong, driven and battled on gamely until headed and no extra final 100yds, eased near finish (op 6-4 tchd 13-8 in places)


« 3 3 1¾ Cityscape 14/1 5 9-0 Roger Charlton 119 * * »
ch h Selkirk (USA) - Tantina (USA) (Distant View) Ryan Moore
Held up in touch in rear, ridden and effort to chase leaders well over 1f out, driven and pressed leading pair 1f out, no extra and outpaced final 100yds (op 12-1 tchd 16-1 in places)


« 4 7 2¼ Rio De La Plata (USA) 25/1 6 9-0 Saeed Bin Suroor 120 * * »
ch h Rahy (USA) - Express Way (ARG) (Ahmad) Frankie Dettori
Steadied start, took keen hold early, held up in last trio, smooth headway to lead over 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, driven entering final furlong, weakened final 150yds (op 20-1)


« 5 5 6 Ransom Note 50/1 4 9-0 B W Hills 114 * * »
b c Red Ransom (USA) - Zacheta (Polish Precedent) Michael Hills
Chased leaders, niggled along after 2f, ridden and struggling entering final 2f, weakened over 1f out (op 66-1 tchd 80-1 in a place)


« 6 4 5 Cape Blanco (IRE) 8/1 4 9-0 A P O'Brien 122 * * »
ch c Galileo (IRE) - Laurel Delight (Presidium) Jamie Spencer
Led until driven and headed entering final 3f, soon dropped out under pressure, well behind over 1f out (tchd 9-1 and 10-1 in places)


« 7 2 6 Flash Dance (IRE) 100/1 5 8-11 F Head 104 * * »
ch m Zamindar (USA) - Resquilleuse (USA) (Dehere) Mickael Barzalona
Chased leader until led entering