What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple?

randallscott35 · #1 05-05-2010, 08:25 AM

What say you of his chances?

Antitrust32 · #2 05-05-2010, 08:27 AM

33.3%

randallscott35 · #3 05-05-2010, 08:37 AM

Pros:
1. Pletcher winning a lot lately
2. Lightly raced
3. Has won at Belmont
4. Weak crop
5. Slop no issue

Cons:
1. Rigors of short rest
2. Full fields likely for both
3. Not head and shoulders better
4. Borel's ride on Mine That Bird last year has to worry you about riding Big Sandy

20% Chance I Guess

johnny pinwheel · #4 05-05-2010, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Pros:
1. Pletcher winning a lot lately
2. Lightly raced
3. Has won at Belmont
4. Weak crop
5. Slop no issue

Cons:
1. Rigors of short rest
2. Full fields likely for both
3. Not head and shoulders better
4. Borel's ride on Mine That Bird last year has to worry you about riding Big Sandy

20% Chance I Guess

i agree, with all of this. the number one con is a big point in recent history. it seems like these horses can't take the rigors of 3 races in 5 weeks.

Thunder Gulch · #5 05-05-2010, 08:37 AM

Less than 10%. Just guessing at odds but if he's 3-1 and 2-1, that's 25% and 33%, so .25 x .33=8.25%. With 14 potential entries, he won't be too much shorter than that unless some of the other "name" horses are out. If he runs off in the Preakness, I guess he could really come down to even money in a 7 or 8 horse Belmont field.

randallscott35 · #6 05-05-2010, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Less than 10%. Just guessing at odds but if he's 3-1 and 2-1, that's 25% and 33%, so .25 x .33=8.25%. With 14 potential entries, he won't be too much shorter than that unless some of the other "name" horses are out. If he runs off in the Preakness, I guess he could really come down to even money in a 7 or 8 horse Belmont field.

Dunbar is our resident odds expert I'll wait for his thoughts....but almost every horse with a chance in the Belmont is less than even money.

slotdirt · #7 05-05-2010, 08:41 AM

To win all three? Pretty low considering there have been 92 "official" runnings of the Triple Crown since 1918 and only 11 horses have won all three.

blackthroatedwind · #8 05-05-2010, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

To win all three? Pretty low considering there have been 92 "official" runnings of the Triple Crown since 1918 and only 11 horses have won all three.

He already won one.

10 to 12% sounds about right. His odds make him more likely, as TC hopefuls are always WAY overbet in the Belmont, but isn't it hard to believe he can be over 40% in that race....and probably less?

robfla · #9 05-05-2010, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Dunbar is our resident odds expert I'll wait for his thoughts....but almost every horse with a chance in the Belmont is less than even money.

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300

Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.

Yes +475

No -700

randallscott35 · #10 05-05-2010, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300

Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.

Yes +475

No -700

That's quite a spread on that Triple Bet, looks like a 20 something % take. Not good odds, but its BoDog so what do you expect.

CSC · #11 05-05-2010, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

33.3%

This would be about just right if the question was what are his chances of winning the Preakness. The horse got a perfect trip in the derby, I will be playing against him.

slotdirt · #12 05-05-2010, 11:36 AM

Belmont banned bringing in your own beer long before Pimlico ever did. I think that was 2005 maybe? Definitely has cut down on attendance, though that might not necessarily be the direct cause and effect.

Pimlico is letting folks buy mugs for $20 that can be filled as many times as one would like this year.

Indian Charlie · #13 05-05-2010, 11:39 AM

In my estimation, Super Saver is not nearly as good a horse away from Churchill Downs as he is at Churchill Downs.

If he wins the TC, I will rename my user name here IndianCharlie1985.

blackthroatedwind · #14 05-05-2010, 11:43 AM

It's very simple......you multiply his chances of winning each race ( and also have to figure in whatever realistic chance he has of not running for whatever reason ). 30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 10% ( .1 ) as an injury factor is relatively fair....though 40% for the Belmont may be a little high.

10% is a realistic number.

#15 05-05-2010, 11:43 AM

I'll go with 0%

randallscott35 · #16 05-05-2010, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I'll go with 0%

We weren't talking about Eskendereya's chances.

Dunbar · #17 05-08-2010, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's very simple......you multiply his chances of winning each race ( and also have to figure in whatever realistic chance he has of not running for whatever reason ). 30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 10% ( .1 ) as an injury factor is relatively fair....though 40% for the Belmont may be a little high.

10% is a realistic number.

Right idea, but you meant "30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 90% ( .9 )" (multiplying by the chance he runs, not the chance he's injured).

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300

Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.

Yes +475

No -700

5Dimes has

Yes TC +650
No TC -1175

So, either the "NO -700" is generous at Bodog or the "YES +650" is generous at 5Dimes; OR the real odds are about +675.

I haven't gone over the Preakness PP's enough to venture an opinion on fair odds for that race or the TC, but I'm guessing it's the -700 for the "NO TC" at BoDog that's generous.

--Dunbar