The Florida Derby Beyer seems to have been changed

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Looking at the Derby future past performances in the "Race of the Week" section on DRF's website ... Quality Road's Beyer is listed as a 111 from a 103 and Dunkirk's Beyer is listed as a 108 from a 100.

I said here and elsewhere that I came back with a 106 for QR when I did the number ... but I also said that anyone trying to do a figure for the race is doing absolute 100% guess work. It was the only two turn dirt route on the card - and you had winds reportedly blowing at over 30 MPH.

It's funny how Pletcher, in his purse clutching hissy fit, called out GP's president for the condition of the track and the press ran with it.

Where are all the people in the press who have called out GP for carding only one two turn dirt route on Florida Derby day?

[philcski]

I guess they read my post.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...8&postcount=11

[Antitrust32]

well you are the man Phil

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

well you are the man Phil

Well, I am in the running for World's Prettiest Handicapper, thank you very much!

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by philcski

Well, I am in the running for World's Prettiest Handicapper, thank you very much!

That implies anyone else dares to compete against you.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I guess they read my post.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...8&postcount=11

Yeah... but what about Stately Charchter now? his 4th place finish will look heroic on paper.

A new double digit lifetime 11 point Beyer top in career start #9 ... and he did it while the one horse in the race most against that supposed monster speed biased track and against that supposed slow pace.

I'm not buying it.

That race is a total mess.

I can see things that make me think the pace was fast. I can see things that make me think the pace was average. I can see things that make me think the pace was slow.

I can see things that make me think the final time figure should be a 100 - I can see things that make me think it should be a 112 - but I went with a 106 when I did mine.

I can see things that make me think the track was biased. I can see other things that make me think it wasn't.

On days like that there's nothing to do but take the opposite position of the overall consenus. Tell me the pace was fast - I insist it was slow. Tell me it was slow - I insist it was fast. Tell me the final fig should be a 112 I insist it should be 100. Tell me it should be a 100 I insist its a 112. Tell me the track was biased - I insist it wasn't. Tell me it wasn't bias I insist it was.

The important thing on a screwed up day like this is that you are able to gauge the publics perception of the race. Once you do that ... always take a firm stance with the opposite position.

[MISTERGEE]

is it possible for them to really have a "par" time for a race like that or is it strictly just projections that are based on very little race experienced horses which make the whole thing a guessing game. being that was the only 2 turn race of the day was the rest of the dirt card consistent in relation to thier pars?

[VOL JACK]

I guess that ends all the guess work on who will be the post time Fav come May 2nd.

[justindew]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/102659.html

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah... but what about Stately Charchter now? his 4th place finish will look heroic on paper.

A new double digit lifetime 11 point Beyer top in career start #9 ... and he did it while the one horse in the race most against that supposed monster speed biased track and against that supposed slow pace.

I'm not buying it.

That race is a total mess.

I can see things that make me think the pace was fast. I can see things that make me think the pace was average. I can see things that make me think the pace was slow.

I can see things that make me think the final time figure should be a 100 - I can see things that make me think it should be a 112 - but I went with a 106 when I did mine.

I can see things that make me think the track was biased. I can see other things that make me think it wasn't.

On days like that there's nothing to do but take the opposite position of the overall consenus. Tell me the pace was fast - I insist it was slow. Tell me it was slow - I insist it was fast. Tell me the final fig should be a 112 I insist it should be 100. Tell me it should be a 100 I insist its a 112. Tell me the track was biased - I insist it wasn't. Tell me it wasn't bias I insist it was.

The important thing on a screwed up day like this is that you are able to gauge the publics perception of the race. Once you do that ... always take a firm stance with the opposite position.

I get what you're saying about it being confusing. My opinion, not necessarily right or wrong- the pace was a 5 out of 10 for this level (taking into account the wind, otherwise it'd be a 7-7.5), the track was not biased, and a suckup 4th place finisher means nothing relative to what the winner and 2nd place horse did given the margins, even if the figure was higher than expected.

What I don't like is they changed the figure later on. Stick with your original number or go with the higher number from the start. There isn't exactly anecdotal evidence to prove or disprove either one since Saturday. This is the main reason I don't use the Beyers printed in the Form.

I've run into this type of thing at Saratoga before too. Logical frontrunners/pressers win every dirt race and everyone thinks there's a bias, when later on it is proven that the "closers" on that day were just bums with no early speed and no closing kick for the level they were placed on that day.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Looking at the Derby future past performances in the "Race of the Week" section on DRF's website ... Quality Road's Beyer is listed as a 111 from a 103 and Dunkirk's Beyer is listed as a 108 from a 100.

I said here and elsewhere that I came back with a 106 for QR when I did the number ... but I also said that anyone trying to do a figure for the race is doing absolute 100% guess work. It was the only two turn dirt route on the card - and you had winds reportedly blowing at over 30 MPH.

It's funny how Pletcher, in his purse clutching hissy fit, called out GP's president for the condition of the track and the press ran with it.

Where are all the people in the press who have called out GP for carding only one two turn dirt route on Florida Derby day?

I did. Between fig makers and general pace handicappers it's impossible to interpret the results of one race at the distance on a card.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Linny

I did. Between fig makers and general pace handicappers it's impossible to interpret the results of one race at the distance on a card.

And it becomes even harder when the weather is very abnormal and the one race consists of 7 lightly raced developing 3yos.