The Florida Derby Beyer seems to have been changed
 

Looking at the Derby future past performances in the "Race of the Week" section on DRF's website ... Quality Road's Beyer is listed as a 111 from a 103 and Dunkirk's Beyer is listed as a 108 from a 100.

I said here and elsewhere that I came back with a 106 for QR when I did the number ... but I also said that anyone trying to do a figure for the race is doing absolute 100% guess work. It was the only two turn dirt route on the card - and you had winds reportedly blowing at over 30 MPH.

It's funny how Pletcher, in his purse clutching hissy fit, called out GP's president for the condition of the track and the press ran with it.

Where are all the people in the press who have called out GP for carding only one two turn dirt route on Florida Derby day?

I guess they read my post.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...8&postcount=11

well you are the man Phil

Yeah... but what about Stately Charchter now? his 4th place finish will look heroic on paper.

A new double digit lifetime 11 point Beyer top in career start #9 ... and he did it while the one horse in the race most against that supposed monster speed biased track and against that supposed slow pace.

I'm not buying it.

That race is a total mess.

I can see things that make me think the pace was fast. I can see things that make me think the pace was average. I can see things that make me think the pace was slow.

I can see things that make me think the final time figure should be a 100 - I can see things that make me think it should be a 112 - but I went with a 106 when I did mine.

I can see things that make me think the track was biased. I can see other things that make me think it wasn't.

On days like that there's nothing to do but take the opposite position of the overall consenus. Tell me the pace was fast - I insist it was slow. Tell me it was slow - I insist it was fast. Tell me the final fig should be a 112 I insist it should be 100. Tell me it should be a 100 I insist its a 112. Tell me the track was biased - I insist it wasn't. Tell me it wasn't bias I insist it was.

The important thing on a screwed up day like this is that you are able to gauge the publics perception of the race. Once you do that ... always take a firm stance with the opposite position.

is it possible for them to really have a "par" time for a race like that or is it strictly just projections that are based on very little race experienced horses which make the whole thing a guessing game. being that was the only 2 turn race of the day was the rest of the dirt card consistent in relation to thier pars?

I guess that ends all the guess work on who will be the post time Fav come May 2nd.

Beyer Explains
 

"The figure for the Florida Derby looked low."

Not that is some explanation...

Paul

yes, overly technical

I get what you're saying about it being confusing. My opinion, not necessarily right or wrong- the pace was a 5 out of 10 for this level (taking into account the wind, otherwise it'd be a 7-7.5), the track was not biased, and a suckup 4th place finisher means nothing relative to what the winner and 2nd place horse did given the margins, even if the figure was higher than expected.

What I don't like is they changed the figure later on. Stick with your original number or go with the higher number from the start. There isn't exactly anecdotal evidence to prove or disprove either one since Saturday. This is the main reason I don't use the Beyers printed in the Form.

I've run into this type of thing at Saratoga before too. Logical frontrunners/pressers win every dirt race and everyone thinks there's a bias, when later on it is proven that the "closers" on that day were just bums with no early speed and no closing kick for the level they were placed on that day.

The problem I see with what Beyer said is that a change in the relationship between 9f dirt races at GP and other distances should have no impact on the number in the Fla Derby ... because it was the only two-turn dirt route carded - and one-turn and two-turn races are always split.

You can have pars for distances and everything else - but when the wind is blowing 30 MPH and the weather is funky .. what good are they?

You have to cut the race loose from everything else and project.

None of this would be an issue if GP did what AQU has done. They have a 9f dirt race carded 30 minutes before the 9f Wood Memorial.

Well, I am in the running for World's Prettiest Handicapper, thank you very much!

:p

I did. Between fig makers and general pace handicappers it's impossible to interpret the results of one race at the distance on a card.

"we concluded there had been a change in the historic relationship between times at 1 1/8 miles and other distances at Gulfstream. We don't know why, but we did know that many of the 1 1/8-mile figures had to be increased."

The official explanation almost makes it sound like they didn't know 9 furlongs was 2 turns or something, which obviously isn't the case.

The Truth is that there is pressure for beyer figs to represent the performance of the horse. If they represent the performance of the horse, then (ridiculous?) claims such as "Quality Road's 109 beyer certifies him as KD contender...." can be made. Also it sounds less ridiculous to say a horse bounced or regressed, that happened to clearly move forward.

The effort has to be made to represent a good performance. If beyers aren't misconstrued as performance figures, then what the hell good are they?

How do the graph and sheets describe the race? I don't check those, but if they are calling QR and Dunkirk's race top prep performances, it further strengthens this point.

Also credit Phil for being one of the first regulars to have a clue, Brother.

The racing secretary could give a sh1t about us figure nerds. However, I don't need a figure to know that Quality Road should be the Derby favorite based on that performance, and as much of a hater I am towards Dunkirk and Pletcher the Robot, he deserves to be in the starting gate over junk that wins the Illinois Derby or the winner of the Lanes End.

Whatever number you give it ... it is a pure guessing game.

And the reason why is because GP only carded one two-turn dirt route - and to make matters much worse you had very heavy wind on the day.

or perhaps the winner in england. we all have to remember, when perusing the graded list and speculating who's in/out, that only the top 19 will go.

By the way, if I make an adjustment for the mile races' times based on the no runup, I match Drugs' 106.

:$:

And it becomes even harder when the weather is very abnormal and the one race consists of 7 lightly raced developing 3yos.

Not so much that racing secretaries care about figure makers but race tracks know that the bettors thrive on INFORMATION.
This is why Belmont always carded a 12f starter on Belmont day. This is why most tracks do card additional races at the distance/configuration of the day's big races. It's not Beyer's convenience but for the tracks customer's convenience. Beside that, racing secretaries are usually guys that have some foundation in the game. It's not like racing secretaries are guys that were hired from the ranks of fire AIG execs. They know they game.