Apr

Santa Anita C/O a Golden Egg Hunt

By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | 5 comments

Got early score with $400 tri in the Shakertown and slowly leaked money the rest of the way Saturday. Capuano’s Hero’s Reward ($12.60), whom I stressed Friday on ATR, came through in a ‘three noses on the wire’ finish with exotics use Cannonball (8.60-1) and next best tab Chamberlain Bridge (5-1).

Trombetta made the right choice for Eternal Star as that one annexed the deep Commonwealth. He had considered the tougher Gr. I Carter for his consistent 5yo bay by Five Star Day. Rebellion and My Pal Charlie rounded out the top three for the available triple of $71+. F&M Turf Champ Forever Together came out for her 2009 debut and handled the nice Jenny Wiley bunch with aplomb for Jonathon Sheppard and George Strawbridge. The always solid Sheppard has come out firing at Keeneland with 3 stakes wins in the first week.

Came into the Blue Grass live to Charitable Man and Cliffy’s Future in the P4, and was laughably trounced from top to bottom when results produced a top four that was as plausible as any… They just weren’t any of the ones I was trying. Sadly, the Blue Grass, once as important a spring sophomore event as there could be, has become a silly exercise that is useless as an anticipatory model for Derby performance. That doesn’t mean it isn’t still fun and a good betting opportunity…

Hope you did OK Saturday. Carryover at Santa Anita looks tough but worth a delve.

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Tiz Salsa 2-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Justalittletipsy 9-5 2nd
Consider: #7 Xtraordinary 5-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Saint’s Crown 3-1 WON

5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Wondrous Event 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Recess 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Sunny Peace 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Wood Art 7-2 8th

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very interesting MSW fillies with some hot-working first and second time starters from big outfits..

Most Likely: #3 First Grade 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Guided Wave 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 She’s Borracho 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Ride Me Fast 5-1 WON

7th: 35th Las Cienagas (Gr. II), F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Terrific version of this stake ‘down the hill’..

Most Likely: #3 Tuscan Evening 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Macadamia 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Dawn After Dawn 7-2 4th
Super Add: #4 Reba Is Tops 6-1 2nd

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Witty 3-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Music Magic 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Cosmic Queen 12-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Lady Lumberjack 6-1 2nd

9th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #4 RENEGADE STORM 3-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Dollar Mountain 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Hidden Trail 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Holladay Road 5-1 3rd
High 5 Play: #2 Domestic Brew 12-1 5th

$1 Exacta (4-1) Paid $15.50
$1 Trifecta (4-1-3) Paid $52.10
$1 Super High Five (4-1-3-10-2) Paid $971.20

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 4-5
5: 1-5-8
6: 3-4-5-8
7: 3-9
8: 1-2
9: 4

2x3x4x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-5-8
7: ALL
8: 1-2
9: 4

4x8x2x1 = $64 $1 P4 (8/7/1/4,9) Paid $293.50

Apr

Brazen Mullins diminishing Derby season

By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | 7 comments

The first Saturday in April is always one of racing’s top days. When the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita and Illinois Derbys roll around, you know it’s spring and that the best time of the year in all respects has arrived. As fans and wagerers, given the performances at Aqueduct, Hawthorne and Santa Anita by the ’09 sophomores, we all should have been left aglow after the weekend with anticipation for Derby 135.

Instead, we are greeted by another unnecessary controversy and embarrassment for the game thanks to the alternately brazen or stupid acts of Jeff Mullins, trainer of possible Derby favorite I Want Revenge. Mullins attempt to administer to Bay Shore entrant Gato Go Win while the horse was sequestered in the Aqueduct pre-race detention barn, represents a new low in disregard for racing’s rules by the oft-cited and disciplined West Coast conditioner.

The explanations and excuses by Mullins, and his attempt to turn fault on detention barn security personnel, are pointless. It doesn’t matter how innocuous a product he was planning on giving the horses. There is not one acceptable or plausible defense for his actions. He knew very well why horses are in a detention barn for 6 hours prior to post, and that nothing is allowed to be administered to those horses. He has had his own horses similarly sequestered back in California as part of the discipline for milkshake positives there. Every trainer visiting jurisdictions outside their home base knows what the medication and associated rules are in that racing locale. If he didn’t, simply put, he’s a hazard to the sport in an era when personal responsibility and professionalism are demanded.

The reality is that Mullins has been operating outside the spirit of the rules of the game for such an extended period, that he doesn’t see any line being crossed when he acts as he did Saturday. New York has an opportunity to send a message in this incident, and penalize Mullins for what by nearly any standard was a blatant sneering at the rules of the game. The incident also represents an opportunity for owners, who have been silent on integrity too long, to send a message. Famed pinhook operators Randy Hartley and Dean DeRenzo are part of the group that own Gato Go Win, and make their livelihood buying and selling racing stock. It will be interesting to see if they act in the best interest of racing by expressing their outrage and disgust at their trainer’s actions and distancing themselves from him.

David Lanzman, as decision maker for the new ownership partnered with him in I Want Revenge, also faces a Rubicon. While Mullins got him this far with his homebred Stephen Got Even colt, he has to decide if he wants to be tied to an individual with so little respect for the game’s integrity. As part of that decision, he will have to weigh the possibility of Mullins placing him in a humiliating position on the sport’s biggest stage, the Derby winner’s stand in the Churchill Downs infield.

This whole scenario also provides a glaring message to the sport as it looks for ways to better police those that seek to take advantage and operate outside the rules of the game. Testing of blood and urine can be expensive, inconclusive and frequently not acceptable as evidence in prosecutions. Security guards as witnesses of illegal acts and rules violations will be far more reliable and easier for authorities to act upon. In other words, as in this recent example, catching in the act those that work outside the rules will be the most effective deterrent.

Apr

McPeek ‘Kills’ Beaumont; Gr. I Madison tricky..

By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | 2 comments

No trouble identifying winners somewhere in the tabs Wednesday, and pieced together some OK exotics and P3’s. Included the ‘wrong’ McPeek in the Beaumont however, a zig with Love You Everybody, where a zag with War Kill was worth $900+ for the P4. Hope you did OK Wednesday. Gr. I Madison today at KEE and another swing at the Quad. ATR live from “The Ultimate Racebook” at Foxwoods!

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Bella Roja 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Ford Gallop 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Angapanga 8-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Pulpitina 6-1 7th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Kristi With a K 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Gypsy Baby 5-1 6th
Best Value: #2 SCR
Super Add: #6 Pleasant Song 6-1 5th

8th: Vinery Madison (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ventura 4-5: Valiant in Kilroe beat last; No lock here.. 2nd
Next Best: #1 Informed Decision 5-2: Away since Oct. but perfect trip/strip.. WON
Best Value: #3 Dubai Majesty 20-1: Hit board at 30-1 here in ’08 Raven’s Run.. 4th
Super Add: #6 Bear Now 6-1: Stall tries turnback with classy synth-loving mare.. 3rd

9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 Bandora 2-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Holiday Chase 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Elusive Surprise 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Unrivaled Belle 6-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-6-7-8
7: 1-6-8
8: 1-3-4-6-7
9: 5-10

4x3x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60

Apr

Blue Grass Week starts with Gr. II Beaumont

By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | 3 comments

Fun Saturday of coast to coast action highlighted by the formful Triple Crown preps. Had elements of a very good day in place but failed to connect a couple of dots including falling short of including Giant Moon in AQU P4 play. Gozzip Girl’s game effort in the Ashland at $20 was another result that had makings of a bankroll bulger but missed. Hope you did well and the action got you excited for another great week leading up to the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby…

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Rock in Bage 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Cajun Prize 6-1 4th
Next Best:#4 Plenty Coups 9-5 WON
Super Add: #1 King Carter 15-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $7.60
$1 Trifecta (4-5-1) Paid $69.50
$1 Superfecta (4-5-1-6) Paid $299.90

5th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Very tough dash with confusing mix of lightly raced or FTS.. Adding Jones’ 12 to multi-race plays as cover (2nd)..

Most Likely: #6 King Andrew 4-1: 1st and 3rd career tries strong; Adds blinks.. 4th
Best Value: #3 Here Comes Ben 12-1: Lopresti’s last 2 FTS hit at 13-1 and 26-1.. 3rd
Next Best: #7 Flavor 5-1: Improving Stall red gets Gomez; Faced good ones.. WON
Super Add: #4 Tiz King 15-1 5th

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Jockey Ridge 3-1: Tagg colt hasn’t really fulfilled promise.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Political Nonsense 8-5: Tough to take price on Lael DepMin away 10 months.. 7th
Best Value: #1 Golden Weekend 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 New Believer 4-1 WON

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Elision 6-1: Featured last night on ATR; Pair up of last wins.. 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Magical Affair 5-2: Boosted prospects with MDN break in turf debut.. WON
Best Value: #8 Spring Party 7-2 11th
Super Add: #4 True Birkin 8-1 9th

8th: Beaumont (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Evita Argentina 2-1: Slight ‘class’ edge; Beat the boys in San Vincente.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Selva 5-2: Carroll miss faces stern pace pressure.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Love You Everybody 5-1: Steady a.m. preps for return; Versatile gears.. 6th
Super Add: #2 Consequence 5-1 3rd

9th: MSW, F&M-4+, 8.5f (Super High 5)

$14k Hi-5 C/O.. (I think it’s $14k.. Will confirm..)

Most Likely: #8 Choice Play 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Cape Cod Bay 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1 With Flying Colors 3-1 WON
Exotics Use: #10 Alley Theater 12-1 8th
High 5 Play: #11 Sealed Bid 8-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5-6
7: 4-6-7-8
8: 1-3-6
9: 1-4-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Apr

Derby Preps Key Among 13 Graded Events..

By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

One of the top afternoons of spring racing unfolds today, with 13 graded stakes between 4:14-7:32pm, and unlimited quality listed stake and ALW action sprinkled throughout the day and landscape. The trio of vitally important Derby Trail preps anchor the day at Ozone Park, Cicero and Arcadia, with earnings ladder positioning certain to get a shakeup. Here’s the stake lineup Crist-style:

4:13 (AQU) Bay Shore
4:46 (AQU) Excelsior
5:05 (KEE) Ashland (Gr. I)
5:14 (HAW) IL Derby
5:19 (AQU) Wood Memorial (Gr. I)
5:24 (GP) Skip Away
5:40 (SA) Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I)
5:51 (AQU) Carter H. (Gr. I)
5:57 (OP) Apple Blossom (Gr. I)
6:23 (SA) Arcadia
7:00 (SA) Potrero Grande
7:02 (OP) Oaklawn H.
7:32 (SA) Providencia

Enjoy the great day!

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Montecore 5-2 WON
Best Value: #8 El Tamberito 9-2 4th
Next Best: #9 Inger Management 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Bitabaz 20-1 9th

7th: 49th Bay Shore (Gr. III), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Capt. Candyman Can 5-2: Steady Wilkes bay sticks to best role.. WON
Next Best: #10 Taqarub 4-1: KMc Aldeb colt also cutting back an 1/8th.. 2nd
Best Value: #5 Rocketing Returns 12-1: Zito poised in every feature today.. 5th
Super Add: #6 Not for Silver 5-1: Trombo Capossella winner flopped last.. 6th

8th: 97th Excelsior (Gr. III), 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Barrier Reef 5-2: Albertrani grey has put it together at 4.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Real Merchant 10-1: Chilean from Benzel chased choice in Stymie.. 6th
Next Best: #6 Cool Coal Man 7-2: Mineshaft from Nick stretches back out.. 2nd
Super Add: #8 Giant Moon 12-1: Recall Schosberg colt’s big try in ’08 Wood.. WON

9th: 85th Wood Memorial (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 I Want Revenge 4-5: Fear regression from huge Gotham effort.. WON
Next Best: #5 Imperial Council 2-1: Shaping up as ultimate Derby wiseguy horse.. 5th
Best Value: #3 Lord Justice 15-1: Pletcher A.P. Indy steadily improving; Would love it wet.. 7th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) West Side Bernie 6-1: Showed better before Lane’s End.. 2nd

10th: 109th Carter H. (Gr. I), 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 FABULOUS STRIKE 2-1: Tough, fast, consistant, win over strip.. 2nd
Best Value: #1a (POE) Kodiak Kowboy 5-1: Only true threat to top pick.. WON
Next Best: #7 Tale of Ekati 3-1: Owns significant wins this oval; Found niche one-turning.. 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Understatement 15-1: Worth flyer underneath as exotics booster.. 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-6-10
8: 1-3-6
9: 2-3-5
10: 1-4

4x3x3x2 = $72

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: Ashland (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Recall last year’s edition of this Oaks prep where KMc poly specialist jumped up and beat Proud Spell and other prominant dirt gals. Stardom Bound looks very vulnerable here having been ordinary in her pair of Gr. I wins this annum, but looking to turf/synth types as opposed to nice NY bred What a Pair or hot working Lukas miss Be Fair, though either would be preferable to the BC Juvenile Filly Champ if this was on loam.

Best Value: #5 Gozzip Girl 8-1: Albertrani miss going great; Doubt price holds.. 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Stardom Bound 6-5: Returns to BC JF level or loses here, drowned in Oaks.. 3rd
Best Value: #6 Dream Empress 5-1: Return to site of Alcibiades win may be perfect tonic.. 7th
Super Add: #4 Be Fair 15-1: DWL miss working big; Threat for all if surface OK by her.. 4th

HAWTHORNE

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: Illinois Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f

It’s now or never for the likes of Giant Oak and Free Country, and my inclination is to look towards some formful players like the surprising Musket Man and the new faces..

Most Likely: #8 Musket Man 7-2: Ryan TB Derby winner may be underestimated.. WON
Best Value: #9 Al Khali 6-1: Pletcher-WinStar import by Md’O looks bona fide.. 8th
Next Best: #6 Perfect Song 6-1: Trombo returns to HAW; Pace play bred for trip.. 7th
Super Add: #1 Nowhere to Hide 5-1: Steady $250k Zito grinder adds Paco.. 4th

GULFSTREAM

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: 22nd Skip Away (Gr. II), 4+, 9.5f

Most Likely: #2 Finallymadeit 2-1: Game 5yo shoved by owner into 6th stake of meet.. WON
Best Value: #3 Fierce Wind 4-1: Pricey flop paid off for Halsey with dinky stake win last.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Tomcito 3-1: Expect better from Peru flash now with Albertrani.. 7th
Super Add: #5 Tizbig 6-1: Jerkens 4yo hasn’t developed much since good soph exploits.. 2nd

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: 72nd Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Chocolate Candy 6-1: Note Cash Call 3rd and respect Hollendorfer’s handling.. 2nd
Most Likely: #10 SCR
Next Best: #4 Pioneerof the Nile 2-1: Disappointment for Zayat may start here today.. WON
Super Add: #5 Mr. Hot Stuff 8-1: Col. John’s brother likely ready for next step forward.. 3rd

7th: 50th Arcadia (Gr. II), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Madeo 5-2: Shirreffs 4yo gets GoGo with Smitty away.. 3rd
Best Value: #9 SCR
Next Best: #3 Desert Code 3-1: Versatile and tough if distance in range.. 8th
Super Add: #5 Global Hunter 4-1 5th

8th: 27th Potrero Grande H. (Gr. II), 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Halo Najib 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Six Pack Abs 9-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Paul’s Hope 6-1 3rd

9th: 29th Providencia (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 1m-T (

Most Likely: #5 Pasar Silbano 4-1: La Habra winner tries to stretch speed 8f.. 3rd
Best Value: #2 Acting Lady 12-1: O’Neill miss exits sharp stakes try this trip.. WON
Next Best: #6 Pride Dancer 6-1: Frankel Irish-bred looks classy enough for these.. 11th
Super Add: #9 Oui Say Oui 9-2: Grp II placed juvy just missed 1st N.A. try.. 8th

10th: OC/N1X, 4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Hard Bill 7-2 WON
Best Value: #7 Partywithlarryz 8-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Art Currency 8-1 11th
Super Add: #1 A Lil Dumaani 12-1 2nd

11th: Cal-bred ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 Nitro Active 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Harlene 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 He’s Really Big 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Corona Time 5-1 WON
High 5 Play: #8 One Chin Again 12-1 11th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-6
9: 2-5-6-9
10: 5-7-9
11: 2-5-7

2x4x3x3 = $72

OAKLAWN

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: 44th Apple Blossom (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 8.5f

Most Likely: #5 Acoma 1-1: Carroll miss can’t dawdle; Pace set-up questionable.. 3rd
Best Value: #2 Superior Storm 5-1: Big opportunity for LA-bred that’s 11 of 16 lifetime.. 2nd
Next Best: #3 Seventh Street 8-5: KMc sends first ever to Ozarks.. WON

10th: 63rd Oaklawn H. (Gr. II), 4+, 9f

This is a better race than people are making out..

Most Likely: #4 Honest Man 5-2: Jones 5yo flopped in NoLa slop last.. 6th
Next Best: #5 It’s a Bird 3-1: Wolfson SunMill star obvious threat on best.. WON
Best Value: #7 Runforthedoe 8-1: Lobo BRZ number liked main in Argentina; Jumps up..
Super Add: #1 Catmantoo 12-1: Local gelding can boost gimmicks 3rd/layoff.. 7th

Good luck!
Steve