Thoroughly and embarrassingly awful day Wednesday as I barely got anything right from Lake George to the Pacific. Day felt like it was spinning into oblivion early on when photo in the Spa 2nd between 9-1 top choice Triple Glory and Most Likely Big Flirt (7-2) went the wrong way. Having made a large (for me) win bet on the runner-up, I would have been smart to back off from there, as the day only got worse from that point.

I left Pletcher 5th race winner Bonavento off the P4 play to miss the $155 quad tote; Didn’t bet old favorite Success Fee; Could not get Best Value Sly Storm up in the feature and finally missed another $30 Paulino Ortiz winner in the nightcap… But the humiliation was just starting, because Del Mar began at 6:30, and beat me like a rented mule for the next 2.5 hours.

Luckily, there is a $209k carryover at Saratoga to attack. Hope you bet better than I did yesterday, or avoided my opinion completely.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES (12:44pm)

1st: Paul Fout, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (Hurdles) (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dynaski 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Terpsichorean 5-1 WON ($22.00)
Next Best: #6 Lead Us Not 6-1
Super Add: #3 Arcadius 4-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-1) $19.40
$1 Trifecta (4-1-3) $64.00

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Water of Life 5-2 7th
Next Best: #2 Speckled Bird 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #6 Isn’t She Grand 12-1 6th
Super Add: #5 She Wears the Best 5-1 5th

3rd: P.G. Johnson, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 TAPITSFLY 6-1 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #9 Smart Seattle 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Lisa’s Kitten 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Write When Ready 10-1 7th

$1 Pick 3 (4-2-3) 3 Correct Paid $120.00

4th: OC/C, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Very competitive Gr. III stakes level set.. Looking for prices..

Best Value: #6 True Resurgence 12-1 4th
Most Likely: #5 Dr. Pleasure 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Giant Chieftan 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Famous Patriot 8-1 4th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Will give Toner-Flay stakes runner benefit of doubt, but am not sure others that have started are much good at all.. And note that if top choices in 2nd race flop, it casts further doubt on quality of #2, #5 and #6 here..

Most Likely: #9 Stormandaprayer 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Strike It Rich 8-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Ennis Lady 6-1 8th
Super Add: #7 SCR

P4 Play:

2: 2-3-6
3: 3
4: ALL
5: 1-7-9-10

3x1x7x4 = $84

6th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Note: Suggest you include #10 Follow My Dream (30-1) on bottom of trifecta and super plays.. She is an ideal candidate to juice exotics..

Best Value: #4 Cagey Girl 10-1 8th
Most Likely: #3 Merriweather Jessica 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Kiawah Cat 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Forest Trail 6-1 5th

10 SUPER: 3-4 with 3-4-5-6 with 3-4-5-6-8-10 with ALL (2x3x4x7 = 168 x .10 = $16.80)

7th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Totally impossible, wide open mess..

Most Likely: #10 Raise the Kitty 5-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Christmas Trip 8-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Simmy 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Crossfirehurricane 15-1 WON ($86.00)

8th: Riskaverse, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Absolutely terrific little stake where the ML faves don’t ‘have to win’..

Most Likely: #1 Miss Catalyst 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Perfect for You 20-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Bluegrass Princess 3-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Missunitednations 20-1 6th

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 West Ocean 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Out Post 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 True Zip 15-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Southern Dynasty 6-1 4th

10th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #3 My Dear Annie 10-1 7th
Most Likely: #9 Platinumplus 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Possessive 4-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Kevazinga 8-1 3rd

$200 P6 Play:

5: 9-10
6: 3-4-5-6
7: 8-9-10
8: 1
9: 2-6
10: 3-9

2x4x3x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 8-9-10
8: 1-2-5-8
9: 2-4-6
10: 3-9

3x4x3x2 = $72

Had largely exasperating afternoon Monday getting beat in early P4 despite being live to 6. Uggh. Did land very nice price on Urban Flight in the 8th for day’s best banker. Last week of somewhat grueling Spa meet upon us Wednesday, and fun carryover cards in NY and CA should keep us all entertained through 9pm tonight! Hope you’ve been doing well and enjoying ATR coverage as the summer season of live broadcasts from Carolina Barbecue wind down. Just 4 more days from the backyard before turning our attention towards the fall meets and Breeders’ Cup…

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Tremendous opener with half dozen fillies/mares within a length of each other on paper..

Most Likely: #6 Lost Without You 7-2
Best Value: #3 Eightyfive S 15-1
Next Best: #5 Strike the Bell 4-1
Super Add: #8 Tempest Storm 6-1

2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Triple Glory 12-1
Most Likely: #3 Big Flirt 9-2
Next Best: #9 Kelode 6-1
Super Add: #8 Unbridled Cardinal 7-2

3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Headache 2-1
Next Best: #3 Matador Run

4th: Loudonville, F&M-3+, 6f (Pe, DD, Super)

SCR #2 Tar Heel Mom

Most Likely: #4 Fascinatin’ Rhythm 7-2
Best Value: #5 Choragus 6-1
Next Best: #7 J Z Warrior 3-1
Super Add: #1 Simplify 5-2

5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Have to respect those that have started already, but of firsters, Pletcher (#6 Bonavento) is a ‘fast early’ Speightstown; Hough’s #2 Royal Stocks is a full to the SW Razor; #9 Roulette Winner (Rock Hard Ten) from Serpe is a half to Yes It’s True, while #8 Baatesh (Pulpit) is a KMc trainee that was a $400k Shadwell purchase, and half to Tazarine and SW Resplenency..

Most Likely: #3 Chief Council 5-2
Best Value: #1 Rein King 8-1
Next Best: #5 Fayoum 7-2
Super Add: #9 Roulette Winner 15-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3
3: 2-3
4: 1-3-4-5-7-8
5: 1-3-5

2x2x6x3 = $72

6th: NYM-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

ML top choices are lined up widest and are NO BETTER than the top pair starting out anyway.. Will play thick exactas with 2-4 and key off them in tri/super..

Most Likely: #2 American Land 5-1
Best Value: #4 Caterina’s Terms 15-1
Next Best: #7 Grace’s Valentine 2-1
Super Add: #8 Split Pot 5-2

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating baby turf route.. Too many options..

Most Likely: #6 Senada 5-1
Best Value: #7 Limeheart 15-1
Next Best: #2 Orchestrator 3-1
Super Add: #1 (POE) Veil of Tears 8-1

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ziptronic 3-1
Best Value: #10 C T Chimes 20-1
Next Best: #1e Broman entry 7-2
Exotics Use: #7 Success Fee 8-1

9th: Lena Spencer, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Smart and Fancy 3-1
Best Value: #1 Sly Storm 12-1
Next Best: #6 Ahvee’s Storm 7-2

10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Monastir 3-1
Best Value: #2 Mr. Vantastic 9-2
Next Best: #3 Star of New York 7-2
Super Add: #6 One Diamond 15-1

[B][U]@$200 P6 Play:[/U][/B]

[I]Murderous sextet that could see elusive $10-$15 3rd/4th choice types win every leg..[/I]

5: 3
6: 2-4
7: 2-6-7
8: 3-10
9: 1-4-6
10: 2-3-9

1x2x3x2x3x3 = 108 x $2 = $216

[B][U]<$75 P4 Play:[/U][/B]

[I]Very tough sequence..[/I]

7: 2-6-7
8: 3-10
9: 1-4-6
10: 2-3-6-9

3x2x3x4 = $72

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Launch the Bull 5-2
Next Best: #1 The Whammer 3-1
Best Value: #2 Tropical Heat 15-1
Super Add: #3 Game A.P. 12-1

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Cinnamon Dove 7-2
Best Value: #9 Spirited Lady 8-1
Next Best: #6 Moon O’er Cashel 4-1
Super Add: #10 Cassablanca 8-1

6th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Ur Turn Dubai 4-1
Best Value: #1 Scare Package 8-1
Next Best: #12 Buyer’s Remorse 5-2
Super Add: #11 Dust in Your Face 8-1

7th: Cal-bred OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 De Car Guy 12-1
Most Likely: #6 Adam Suances 3-1
Next Best: #4 The Usual Q. T. 5-2
Super Add: #2 Renegade Storm 8-1

8th: 17th Generous Portion, Cal-bred 2yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 La Nez 7-2
Best Value: #5 Royalty Gone Wild 9-2
Next Best: #6 Unbridled Meeting 5-2
Super Add: #4 Magic Yodeler 5-1

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

SCR: 6-7-13-14

Most Likely: #4 Hotsie 7-2
Best Value: #9 No Pun Intended 6-1
Next Best: #3 Jamieson 9-2
Exotics Use: #10 Eisenheim 5-1
High 5 Play: #2 Good Newsman 4-1

$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-4
5: 3-6-9
6: 1-7-12
7: 3-6
8: 3
9: 4-9

2x3x3x2x1x2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-7-12
7: 2-3-4-6
8: 3
9: 2-3-4-5-9-10

3x4x1x6 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Closed out terrific Travers Weekend Sunday with what I thought was in many ways, my best day of handicapping of the meet. Every winner except for off the turf Maiden Claiming victor Chief Tomoka (6th) was available in the selections, with Best Value tabs Afrikaner ($11.00), Piazza Di Spagna ($22.40) and Valuable Lady ($35.40) leading the charge. Wide net P4 plays had potential to catch the $350 early and $1,000 late quads, while 6 rolling P3’s of $41, $125, $115, $187, $33 and $425 (to close out the 9th-11th), littered the afternoon. 4 tris and 9 exactas were out there for key and box players as well. Hope you did very well…

Week 5 of the session ends with rather entertaining card Monday… Catch Seth Merrow and I 10:30-11:30 on Capital OTB-TV’s “Call to the Post” this morning. Tim Ice and Kent Desormeaux join us. And don’t miss Andy Beyer joining me on ‘At the Races’ this afternoon!

Streaming (TV) video: http://www.capitalotb.com
Streaming (ATR) audio: http://www.stevebyk.com

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: S/HCP, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) 

Most Likely: #4 Cavallo Pazzo 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Jack On the Rocks 4-1 5th
Next Best: #2 James Wilfred 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Executive Search 9-2 7th

Most Likely: #4 Cavallo Pazzo 2-1 WON

2nd: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) 

Most Likely: #6 For Love Alone 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Won Token 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Laylaben 4-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Louisa Mae 6-1 5th

 

3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD) 

Most Likely: #3 Distinctively 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Film Charm 8-5 WON
Exotics Use: #5 Patience Drive 3-1 2ndBest Value: #1 Lawless Falls 7-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Stone Legacy 6-1 2ndCheck SCR’s at 11am as #9 All Zipped Up (6-1) would need to be used in multis should he draw in..

 

4th: Mollie Wilmot, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD) 

Most Likely: #3 Platinum 2-1 WON

Most Likely: #3 Platinum 2-1 WON

5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD) 

 

Most Likely: #2e Contessa entry 7-2 9th
Best Value: #5 Conga King 15-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Quick Money 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Thundering Roar 4-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play: 

2: 2-3-6
3: 3-6
4: 1-3
5: 2-3-4-5-8-9

 

3x2x2x6 = $72

6th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD) 

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 3-1 WON/5th
Best Value: #2 Baton Rouge 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Dorian Will 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Sydney Road 12-1 7th

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 3-1 WON/5th

7th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5,5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super) 

Consider using underlaid #2 Petecarol (7-2) and #5 Loyal Leader (SCR’D) in multis, but don’t believe they are any better than the 4 below..

 

Best Value: #10 Hudson Landing 10-1 3rd
Most Likely: #1 Great Attack 4-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Pakula 8-1 8th
Super Add: #13 Shamroge 8-1 7th

8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super) 

Best betting race of the day.. 12-1 on #12 Urban Flight is juicy, but he’ll need a trip to be worked out under Garcia.. Many others are capable of board hits at bonus tote.. Fun affair.

 

Most Likely: #1 Big Al 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Urban Flight 12-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Blue Lion 10-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Blazing Dynamo 7-2 6th

9th: 6th Saratoga Dew, F&M-3+, 9f (DD, Super) 

Most Likely: #6 My Dinah 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 What a Pair 5-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Borrowing Base 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Yet Again 6-1 2nd

 

10th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super) 

Most Likely: #6 Ruff and Ready 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Skagerrak 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Dancing Tin Man 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2b Jamaludin WON7: 1-8-10-13
8: 1-7-12
9: 5-6-9
10: 5-6

 

<$75 P4 Play: 

 

4x3x3x3 = $72

Enjoyed damp but entertaining Travers Day Saturday which was punctuated by resounding feature victory by Tim Ice’s Summer Bird. Have somewhat force fed listeners Ice and the sweet Birdstone colt who rose to the top of the 3yo males dispatching the over-hyped Quality Road and Kensei with utter disdain. Travers result helped close out a largely successful afternoon. Hope you did well. 11 race card Sunday is a bit more than anyone wants around Spa after yesterday’s 13 race extravaganza, but let’s have at it!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

SCR #1 Heavenly Blaze..

Most Likely: #2 Al’s Deputy 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Afrikaner 7-2 WON
Next Best: #6 William Thomas 2-1

2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

SCR: 1a-4

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Backcountry Boy 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Magic Tiger 5-2 WON
Exotics Use: #3 Junaluska 6-1

3rd: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Hot and Bothered 9-5 WON
Best Value: #6 Chernobyl Princess 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Anjorie 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Kick the Cruiser 8-1 6th

4th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Piazza Di Spagna 12-1 WON
Most Likely: #3 Bestowed 3-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Missinglisalewis 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Beneath the Crown 8-1 9th

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Emma’s Posse 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Trigger’s Missle 15-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Soda Pop Kid 2-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Dancing Digits 5-1 7th

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Frame of Reference 5-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Dr. Nick 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Perfect Vow 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Estimator 12-1 6th

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF..

Most Likely: #1a St. Augustine 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Royal Lord 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Sao Sebah 7-2 4th

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF..

Very interesting race, and difficult, with daughters of Tout Charmant (#8) and Indy Five Hundred (#5) signed on..

Most Likely: #1e Pletcher entry 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Red Barchetta 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Afleet Maggi 5-2 WON
Exotics Use: #3 Granny Broughton 12-1 5th

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Clement entry 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Gaelic Storm 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Ballast 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Optimer 9-2 WON

10th: 62nd Personal Ensign (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 10f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Unbridled Belle 5-2 8th
Best Value: #7 Swift Temper 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Icon Project 7-2 WON
Super Add: #3 Morena 15-1 3rd

11th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (Super)

OFF THE TURF..

Most Likely: #2b Stellaluce 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Valuable Lady 15-1 WON
Next Best: #12 Porkchop Sandra 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1a Five Star Maria 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-5
9: 1-6-8
10: 2-6-7
11: 2b-8-12

3x3x3x3 = $81

Couldn’t get 4th choice winners on P6 play in first two legs of carryover Friday, but then ran the table to end solid day. $28k payday on sextet was excellent return on fun sequence for those that negotiated the sequence. P4 score was humdrum, doubling investment at just under $150. Hope you did well.

Travers Day wet no matter how you look at it, with overnight rain and further showers a certainty. 1st, 5th and 13th OFF TURF so far, and more could come off yet. Gr. II Ballston Spa (9th) a near certainty to remain on…