Favorites and logical horses continue to generally rule at Elmont, as another P4 went right but was dominated by ‘Most Likely’ winners D’ Wildcard (3-1), D’ Funnybone (1-2 in the Futurity) and Awesome Maria (7-2 in the Matron). Still got back solid $268.50 thanks to timely arrival at the wire of Rajiv Maragh and Too Amenable in the nightcap at $16.40. The photo result made up for Kaleidoscope Sky’s photo loss in the Friday quad opener that was the difference maker in not hitting that sequence.

BELMONT PARK

Overall a nice day at the windows, though Jimmy Jerkens’ Lemon Cream Pie disrupted the rolling P3’s mid-card. Hope you did well Saturday. That $24 ‘LDK’ upsetter also helped trip a $66k carryover for Sunday at Belmont, and the sequence, featured below, is very challenging… Also, I looked at the National Steeplechase Association’s Gr. I Lonesome Glory which serves as Belmont’s opener, and the excellent Woodbine stakes as well…

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: Lonesome Glory Hurdle S. (NSA-Gr. I), 4+, 20f-Nat’l Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Isti Bee 12-1 5th
Most Likely: #1a Sermon of Love 2-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Dynaski 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Mixed Up 9-2 7th

5th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Peterdidit 4-1 10th
Best Value: #3 Pure Cognac 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Military Star 7-5 7th
Super Add: #7 Ranger James 9-2 2nd

6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Very little to go on at a glance here with nice horseflesh and no major indices..

Best Value: #9 Gathering Cloud 10-1 2nd
Most Likely: #1e Pletcher entry 3-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Asphalt 4-1 WON
Exotics Use: #4 Afleet Alan 12-1 11th

7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Ruff and Ready 9-2 7th
Most Likely: #1 Adagio 7-5 WON
Next Best: #8 Gaelic Storm 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Raynicks Fan 10-1 9th

8th: Chaldea, 3yo-F, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Legally Blanca 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Strike the Bell 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Exe 20-1 6th

9th: John Hettinger-NYB, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (DD, Super)

HRace honors the late John Hettinger, a rescuer of the Fasig-Tipton Co. 20 years ago; a particular stalwart of New York racing and breeding; and a tireless campaigner for horse rescue and welfare. He was a man of exceptional drive and character, and racing was greatly diminished by his passing..

Most Likely: #7 Nehantic Cat 6-5 6th
Best Value: #3 Crazy Catlady 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 You Go West Girl 8-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Love Cove 10-1 3rd

10th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #4 Exhi 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #6 Bwana Brave 9-2 7th
Next Best: #2 Drosselmeyer 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Systematic Risk 12-1 4th

$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-2-3-7
6: 1-6-9
7: 1-3
8: 1-2
9: 3-7
10: 4

4x3x2x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-7-8
8: 1-2-6
9: 1-3-5-7
10: 4 $1 P3 (2-1-4) Paid $205.50

4x3x4x1 = $48

$1 Pick 4 (1/10/11-2-1-4) Paid $505.00

WOODBINE

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: Canadian (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Forever Together 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Dance to My Tune 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Points of Grace 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Much Obliged 6-1 3rd

8th: Northern Dancer (Gr. I), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Marchfield 7-2 5th
Next Best: #8 Just as Well 5-2 WON (2nd-Placed 1st)
Best Value: #5 Marsh Side 6-1 4th (DQ’d from 1st)
Super Add: #7 Cobotown Ron 20-1 7th

10th: Woodbine Mile (Gr. I), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Bribon 5-2: Met Mile star ideally suited for this.. 5th
Next Best: #2 Sterwins 8-1: Too short? Exacta hits in 6/7 on T.O. lawn.. 3rd
Best Value: #4 Field Commission 12-1: Board threat on stretchout; Adds Leparoux.. 6th
Super Add: #6 Daylight Express 30-1: Bahamian owns style/speed/price for exotics.. 10th

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 22nd Noble Damsel (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Does Rutherienne win here? Probably.. Should you take $3 on a notorious hanger that refuses to win against whatever level of competition she faces? Absolutely not. Fred Seitz’ filly has the hedge, Ramon and 5 pounds on the favorite. She’s nearly as fast too and will be at least a $20 prop. I’ll bite.

Best Value: #1 Meadow Saffron 15-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Rutherienne 1-2 WON
Next Best: #5 Quiet Meadow 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Social Queen 8-1 3rd

5th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Sunny 5-1 9th
Most Likely: #1 Es Mia 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Casa Di Vino 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Simple Western 8-1 WON

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 7 with 1-2-3-6 with 1-2-3-4-5-6 with All (1x4x5x7 = 140 x .10 = $14.00)

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Pictural 6-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 Picou 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Brother Nick 10-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Crown Point 20-1 9th

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 4-5 with 4-5 with 2-3-6-8-9-11 with All (2x1x6x8 = 960 x .10 = $9.60)

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 D’ Wildcard 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Live On the Edge 7-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Pavoratti’s Soul 10-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Stroll for Acure 2-1 5th

8th: 120th Futurity (Gr. II), 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 D’ Funnybone 6-5 WON
Next Best: #1 Discreetly Mine 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Successful Score 10-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Thiskyhasnolimit 12-1 3rd

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 1-6 with 1-6-7-8 with 1-3-6-7-8 with All (2x3x3x5 = 90 x .10 = $9.00)

9th: 103rd Matron (Gr. II), 2yo-F, 7f (DD, Super)

Very well-matched group of fillies.. Will play against 2-1 Violette fave..

Most Likely: #4 Awesome Maria 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Worship the Moon 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Speightful Lady 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Southern Truth 20-1 4th

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Terrific nightcap with mind-bendingly balanced bunch of solid state-breds. Respect ML fave #10 Scientist (3-1), but simply compelled to find prices here. Impossible finish to very tough P4..

Best Value: #2 Globemaster 8-1 10th
Most Likely: #12 Livin Large 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Too Amenable 8-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Gamblin Fever 15-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

Murderously tough quad..

7: 1-4
8: 1-6
9: 1-2-4-5-6-8
10: 2-5-12

2x2x6x3 = $72

P4 Paid $268.50

RESULTS 9/18

Belmont card played out very much as anticipated Wednesday, proving tricky as can be with series of pricey winners triggering $30k carryover for Thursday. While there was no getting to the bulbous $14,000+ late P4, I was pleased to identify 3 opportunities where good opinions on overlays yielded lucrative results that easily carried the day.

BELMONT PARK

First, ‘long look’ recommend Pletcher’s Whydah went off even higher than the 8-1 ML paying a fat $21.20 in the 5th. And it got better when Toner’s include tab La Clouche (15-2) got up second for the $77.25 exacta. Minutes later, Best Value top choice Tinto (24-1) just fell short of getting into the exacta, but tripped a $482.50 tri ($1) with 15-1 surprise winner Smarty Karakorum (Super Add) and even money fave Graceful Afleet (Most Likely) second. Finally in the nightcap, Best Value try Exton, another 24-1 bomber, rallied to just a head shy of a big score, though the $15.80 second money more than covered the W-PL investment on him.

So despite not coming close on the quad, it was a very good day. Hope you did well! Exceedingly hard sequence for the carryover Thursday, so let’s try to not give back Wednesday’s earnings…BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 (POE) Shrimp Dancer 5-2 WON
Best Value: #7 Saver Dude 10-1 12th
Next Best: #10 Supreme Serene 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Bishop of Nola 3-1 2nd

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Run to Grand Ave. 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Rapide One 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Mocha Springs 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Cavello 15-1 4th

6th: CLN, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Swinging Bernie 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Xodo 20-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Midnite Silver 6-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Right of Way 6-1 8th

7th: NYB-OC/C, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Redefined 9-5 WON
Best Value: #3 Can’t Refuse 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Five Towns 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Be Bullish 15-1 2nd

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Fateh Field 4-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Peace Wine 9-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Charlott Humor 10-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Wall Street Wonder 7-2 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)

Best Value: #1 Comeback 4-1 5th
Most Likely: #8 Jazz Hands 7-2 WON
Next Best: #2 Catch the Bottom 5-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Frenchonionsoup 3-1 2nd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-7
5: 3-4-6-9
6: 2-3
7: 6
8: 4-9
9: 1-2-8

2x4x2x1x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-4-5-6-10
7: 6
8: 4-8-9
9: 1-2-7-8

6x1x3x4 = $72

$1 P4 Pays $183

Week starts off with interesting Wednesday card at Belmont, and though I looked fully at races 2-5, the late P4 seems much more preferable as a target. In the early quad, the 3rd, 4th and 5th are Maiden Special affairs that look alternately chalky or impossible.

Linda Rice pair (#2e; 7-5) appear obvious in the 3rd (NYB 2yo-F going 6f on the inner turf), while $3,100,000 KMc colt (#1a Chimayo; 3-1) should improve in the 4th, second start stretching out to a mile. Second out #2 (POE) Whydah from Pletcher is worth a long look at 8-1 ML in the 7f-Turf 5th. The More Than Ready miss was washed off the lawn in her debut and is a decent alternative to the logical 7-2 fave Red Barchetta from Barbara. Toner’s #5 La Cloche (8-1), a daughter of the wonderful Memories of Silver, will likely find her way onto my tickets too..

The late P4 has possible price horses scattered about in the 1st, 2nd and 4th legs, so I’m going to try to sneak a single of #1 Sly, part of favored and potent Tony Dutrow entry with I’ve Got Speed, through in the 8th..

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Tinto 12-1
Most Likely: #1 Graceful Afleet 2-1
Next Best: #8 Fisher Island 5-2
Super Add: #7 Smarty Karakorum 12-1

7th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2e Bush entry 9-2
Next Best: #1e Donk entry 4-1
Best Value: #3 Higher Incentive 6-1
Exotics Use: #8 Speed Dating 6-1

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Sly 5-2
Best Value: #4 Eldoktori 10-1
Next Best: #7 Golden Weekend 5-1
Exotics Use: #11 Natural Speed 8-1

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Gravitational 2-1
Best Value: #5 Exton 12-1
Next Best: #9 Admiral Bird 6-1
Super Add: #11 Masterofthehouse 15-1

<$75 P4 Play:

Challenging but fun, and potentially highly lucrative, sequence..

6: 1-8-9
7: 1-2-3-6-8
8: 1
9: 1-2-5-9-11

3x5x1x5 = $75

Good luck!
Steve