Weather continues to wreak havoc with the racing calendar as venues deal with a strange and harsh winter. It’s in the 40’s at Gulfstream right now (7am), and though it should reach 70 degrees, rain may hit mid-afternoon, and there is a chance of a thunderstorm around 4pm which would affect the G3 Sabin (4:12p) and terrific G2 Davona Dale (4:43p). The card at Hallandale is compelling, with the three graded stakes and a P3 (2nd-4th) of one mile events for sophomore boys that should produce a few important types moving forward.

At Santa Anita, the G3 Sham is the key race as 10 three year olds audition for spots in the Santa Anita or maybe Sunland Derby. But the forecast is not good for Arcadia, and there’s no way to know at this time if the problematic surface has already taken enough water to consider a cancellation. Rick Hammerle explained yesterday that the races on the downhill course are always the first to come of the turf, and that could impact the Magna 5 which includes the SA 4th as it’s 2nd leg. Watch here for the any changes to this week’s penta-pick which is the most difficult sequence of the M5 season yet.

Speaking of Santa Anita, Frank Stronach is in California and will be meeting with Ron Charles and company about the impending decision on a new main track surface. Increasingly, the mercurial Austrian-Canadian appears like a Mel Brooks-film character on acid, and is now mumbling about another attempt at a synthetic cake frosting for the main track, this time something that sounds like a version of Fibresand as discussed by Steve Crist yesterday. This of course comes after a majority of interested parties were thrilled at the prospect of a new dirt track at the Great Race Place. Stay tuned…

Gulfstream Park

R7 – Clm 20k N2L (Inner Turf 8.5F)

#2 Distant Strike
#9 Pentecost
#6 Fastus Catus
#5 Henderson

R8 – Clm 35k (Outer Turf 5F)

#3 Bernard Terrace
#2 Sarah’s Tiger
#8 Sure Success
#1 Pinchin Entry

R9 – G2 Mac Diarmida (Inner Turf 11F)

#8 Expansion
#2 Winchester
#6 Thou Swell
#4 Precious Passion

Ex Box 2 8

R10 – MSW 45k (Outer Turf 5F)

#5 Top Yank
#4 Morethanatale
#2 Cause I Can
#12 She’s Packin Heat

PK4 – 2 9 / 1 2 3 4 6 8 9 / 2 8 / 2 4 5 12 = $56 ($.50 play)

Good Racing Luck

Long and lucrative day Saturday as nearly non-stop Stakes action at Gulfstream and Fair Grounds made for a fun afternoon. Starting with hot Chad Brown’s (Best Value 2nd choice) Unbridled Fury ($11.80) in the 6th, rather logical winners at Hallandale made for modest multi-race results until stopped by Bart Evans’ Honey Fox stunner Wasted Tears. The Fountain of Youth result, (Eskenderaya-Jackson Bend-Aikenite offered straight in the tabs), produced a surprisingly generous $17.60 exacta ($1) and $75.50 triple ($1) considering they were the 3rd (4-1), 2nd (5-2) and 4th (7-1) choices behind disappointing Buddy’s Saint (3-2). The Giant Causeway chestnut victor turned in a tour-de-force effort, part of 3 Derby Trail prep wins by Todd Pletcher trainees on the day.

P4 try was dashed when Quiet Harbor fell a half length short in the nightcap by the aforementioned Wasted Tears. Bart Evans’ wire-to-wire winner was amazing considering the amount of speed signed on in the event and the square splits she cut out (:22.2, :46.4, 1:10.4, final 1:33.4) under Cornelio Velasquez. I walked to the paddock with Evans who was distressed about the size of the field, his 5yo’s outpost, and how much speed ended up in the affair. But 15 minutes later, the homespun trainer-owner-breeder, replete in cowboy shirt and hat, was thrilled with his Najran mare.

Missed the $1,500 Magna 5 payout by leaving Laurel winner off the ticket, but Fair Grounds made up for any of the day’s miscues later. The $156 P4 hit that ended with Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star was nice thanks to the inclusion of Silverbulletday upsetter Jody Slew ($18.00), but it was three straight on top winners in the Fair Grounds, Risen Star and Mineshaft that returned another $184 in a $1 P3. Originally identified as “Best Values”, Blues Street (6-1 ML; $5.80 to win) and Discreetly Mine (5-1 ML; $7 to win) were sniffed out widely and got bet. But Joe Broussard’s Stonehouse (12-1 ML) was ignored in the card-ending Mineshaft, and came through at $35.60 for a terrific close to the afternoon.

Hope you did well! $33k C/O at Aqueduct today…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MSW, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Duke of Naples 2-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Cayo Hueso 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Castanada 5-2 WON
Super Add: #2 SCR

5th: S/HCP, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Even with the inner favoring inside speed, there seems to be way too much pace here to not allow for a collapse, and the obvious horse here stalks..

Most Likely: #5 Independence War 7-5 WON
Best Value: #6 Wadi Suki 20-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Jacob’s Run 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1e SCR

6th: MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Celtic Law 2-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Just an Investment 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 One Seat Empty 12-1 4th
Super Add: #1 West End 12-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N1Y, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 City Spirit 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Lady Limit 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Top Lass 10-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Gattinara 4-1 WON

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (DD, Super)

Don’t particularly get favored Ricoriatoa though Smarty gelding has potential to be alone out front if Valid Sum doesn’t go off the 7 month break. Other option is ‘Value’ pace-presser Poppa’s Pick who gets to choose how much pressure to put on the #2 and when to apply it..

Best Value: #7 Poppa’s Pick 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Charlotte Humor 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Ricoriatoa 2-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Regal Prince 8-1 6th

9th: NYB-MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 NINA’S SPIRIT 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Sweet a Way 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 La Belle Gabrielle 5-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Lady Gracenote 10-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-4-8
5: 5-6
6: 3-7
7: 2-8
8: 2-3-5-7
9: 9

3x2x2x2x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-7-6
7: 2-8-1
8: 2-3-5-7
9: 7-9

3x3x4x2 = $72

ANOTHER BIG WEEKEND:Wonderful afternoon in store for racing fans Saturday as Derby Trail action comes into focus with the Hutcheson, Fountain of Youth, Risen Star, rescheduled Southwest and El Camino Real Derby all on tap. Magna 5 opportunity should be a little more lucrative this week after a tiny payout in the opener, and all stakes P4’s at New Orleans and Hallandale have potential to provide fireworks.

A SURE SIGN OF SPRING! The fun Road to the Roses contest starts today, and if you want to jump into a league, feel free to add your stable to the Derby Trail (and ATR) group. Prizes to the Top 5 finishers…

DT/ATR RTTR League
League Name: DerbyTrail.com
League Identifier: 296565368
Activation Code: 3881894580

LLOYDOBLER STRETCHES OUT: Early part of the day will have Dee Tee Stables partners excited as Lloydobler makes his second career start at Aqueduct stretching out to a mile versus a nice group that have faced some well-regarded sophomores. Chucky Lopez rides back in the 2nd half of the opening Big A double, with the wide-blazed Smarty Jones colt the 6-1 fourth choice in the field of 8. Pace will be a key factor for the stalker-closer’s potential in the event, as there isn’t a clear indication of who in the group will be eager for the lead. Thanks to the partners, Gary Sciacca and Chuck Simon for making it possible, and to Gary’s long time assistant Paul Barone and Lloyd’s groom Javier who has been with the Sciacca barn nearly 15 years, for their tireless efforts.

Thought $11, $13 and $111 winners of the first half of Thursday Santa Anita P6 meant a carryover was in the offing for Friday. But 3 subsequent victors that were obvious ‘on top’ Most Liklies kept the sequence within reach of one ticket that scored on the $80k+ prize.

54-1 El Nadia, a 7yo Kiwi making a first NA start, was Steve Knapp’s first winner of the meet after 35 tries. She was a 1 for 25 turf mare in NZ running 7f to a mile; had been off 229 days with Knapp 8% “Off >180 days” and 0 for 17 “First time with trainer”. In other words, she was tough to use…

Hope you did OK yesterday as the next three winners “on top” produced a $50 P3 that defrayed the P4 beat a tad. Huge Saturday on deck, and ATR preview will include DRF’s Mike Welsch (GP, TAM) and Marcus Hersch (FG). Carryover of $25k looms at Aqueduct today, but with a potential $160k pot at Arcadia, I looked West instead and the P4 appears approachable and possibly lucrative.

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Warren’s Appeal 5-2 3rd-DH
Best Value: #1 Win Allison Win 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Playa Bonita 9-2 3rd-DH
Super Add: #2 G. I. Betty 6-1 6th

6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Victory With Honor 5-2 8th
Best Value: #2 Silk Street 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Stephen’s Got Hope 4-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Close to the Edge 3-1 4th

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Devine Actress 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 My Aunt Fanny 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Jealous Woman 3-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Welken 5-2 2nd

8th: Cal-bred MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 Saltwater M D 4-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Kalookan Commando 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Jacob’s Tiger 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Slew City Grinder 8-1 7th
High 5 Play: #1a (POE) Unusually Lucky 5-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-6
6: 2-7
7: 1-3-4-5
8: 5-8-11

3x2x3x4 = $72

Pleased to provide a happy recap to Wednesday’s punts as pairs of top choice Most Likelies ($11.00 Family Holiday-6th/$5.40 Inca King-9th) and 2nd choice Best Values ($37.40 Tesora de Amor-7th/$17.40 Doubles Partner-8th) combined for the solid $891.00 P4 hit at the .50 increment. The 6th-8th sequence also produced an enormous P3 payout of $1,484.30, as multi players clearly leaned on Lentenor in the feature.

Bill Kaplan’s Tesora de Amor was the lynchpin to the late action in the 7th, but while 17-1 in the win pool, may not have been that high in the multis. Kaplan moved the Medaglia d’Oro filly to the dirt for the first time after two grass routes, and the homebred Dave and Teresa Palmer filly responded appropriately with a terrific effort under Paco Lopez. Kaplan, who is a 10-12% trainer generally, is frequently under-bet with live runners and has positive ROI’s in several categories worth watching. He’s particularly transparent when giving Lopez a leg up, and boosted his record with the hard-riding youngster from 2/8 (+$9.75) to 3/9 (+$12.60) with yesterday’s bonus mutuel.

Hope you did well yesterday! Santa Anita late quad the focus today as two turf sprints at Gulfstream didn’t appeal to me.

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Tamerin 5-2 8th
Next Best: #4 Birdie Birdie 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 See N’ Win 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Triple Star 8-1 7th

6th: ALW/C, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Witty 4-5 WON
Best Value: #3 U R All That I Am 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Supermodel 6-1 3rd

7th: Cal-bred ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Always in Style 7-2 WON
Next Best: #9 Samantha’s Rule 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Powerofvoodoo 8-1 5th
Super Add: #3 The Town Lady 8-1 3rd

8th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 1m (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #1 Press the Point 4-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Led Advantage 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Diamonds Wild 6-1 10th
Super Add: #4 This Time Baby 6-1 5th
High 5 Play: #7 Pocatello Wild Cat 7-2 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4-6
6: 1-3-4
7: 1-3-8-9
8: 1-9

3x3x4x2 = $72