Challenging $40k BEL carryover to starts raceweek
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
Week starts with $40k carryover at Belmont on a very challenging sequence. I’ve offered up an <$100 ticket getting the feeling that small budgets will be hard-pressed to take this slate down and we may be better off focusing on doubles, P3’s and the late P4..
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (P6, P3, DD)
Start of a maddeningly tough sequence and a re-drawn group from Thursday’s cancellation. Night Site (Giant’s Causeway), the 3yo Juddmonte homebred out wonderful Sightseek, undoubtedly the horse to beat but Lexcano will need to make a trip happen from the #9 berth. As suggested by Andy Serling on ATR Tuesday, Suns Out Guns Out has done his best running in 9f tries and being by Empire Maker seems suited for this voyage as an alternative to the choice. Fact, Imaging, Silver Endurance and Coach Royal are all closely bunched after the top pair..
Most Likely: #9 Night Site 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Suns Out Guns Out 6-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Silver Endurance 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Imagining 6-1 DNF
5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
Another Maiden group on lawn — this time state bred fillies going seven-eighths — and like the marathon above, there are those that have had opportunities and may be running out of chances. As Serling pointed out, Nishava, from capable John Salzman Jr., goes 2nd time and had hiccups in her debut. After her, there are the obvious contenders like Crypto Kitten (5-2) & Royal Suspicion (4-1) and a couple of intriguing 20-1 exotics booster types in Eurokay by Me and Monticello Doll. Islarama is a short 3-1 based on fast-ish dirt tries, but her turf prospects are highly dubious on pedigree..
Best Value: #7 Nishava 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Royal Suspicion 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Crypto Kitten 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Monticello Doll 20-1 8th
6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Standard set of N2L turf sprinters. This set gets pretty murky after the top ML choices of Petey Cramer and Shotinthefog..
NOTE: Pretty important SCR of Rudy Rudy Rudy out of this. He figured to really help prompt the pace from out there. Was expecting Shotinthefog to run them down and wanted to single him, but Petey Cramer may be a P6 ‘must use’ now..
Most Likely: #3 Shotinthefog 4-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #8 Petey Cramer 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Luigi P 8-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Shoutout 15-1 7th
7th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Very tricky group with a number of turf movers looking like jump up candidates..
Most Likely: #1 Namron 4-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Balance the Budget 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Thomas Hill 20-1 WON ($41.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Steel Bridge 7-2 8th
8th: Track Barron, 2yo, 5.5f (DD)
Expect many will count on Shanghai Bobby as a single, but remember these are 2yo’s making 2nd-4th starts and can improve or regress readily. Note that only Cay to Pomeroy has gone 5f..
Most Likely: #4 Cay to Pomeroy 3-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Shanghai Bobby 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Video Storm 5-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Handsome Jack 6-1 2nd
9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f-IT
Group of suspects go 9 panels here and it seems like you want those that have yet to prove themselves hopeless..
Best Value: #8 Great Karoo 6-1 4th
Next Best: #10 The Kid N Me 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Adios Nardo 7-2 WON ($4.90)
Super Add: #12 Street Cruise 3-1 7th
<$100 P6 Play:
4: 6-9
5: 7
6: 3-8
7: 1-6
8: 2-4-6
9: 8-10
2x2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x $2 = $96
<$50 P4 Play:
6: 3-8
7: 1-2-4-6
8: 2-4-6
9: 3-8-10-12
2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
$0.50 Pick 4 (3,11,12/2/2/3,4,13,14) Paid $303.50