Do we come to Belmont with Triple Crown on line?
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
Belmont P6 almost went un-hit again but ultimately rewarded 2 players for $430k each. Pimlico action was alternately chalky and surprising with the turf affairs producing $40 and $50 winners that were very hard to reach. Graded events were highlighted by Pletcher exacta in the Susie and outstanding Special that saw superb performances from the trifecta of Alternation, Nehro and Endorsement. Marathon day post-ATR Friday didn’t end until well past 1a this morning after interminable trip to Baltimore and am late getting this out. Friday’s ATR featured extensive analysis of the stakes portion of today’s Preakness card. Here’s a rundown of the tabs..
PIMLICO RACE COURSE
POST-SCRATCHES
3rd: 61st Gallorette (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Zagora 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #7 Laughing 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Baltimore Belle 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Smart Sting 5-1 4th
4th: ALW/C, 3yo, 8.5f (P3)
Most Likely: #4 Paynter 4-5 WON ($2.20)
Next Best: #3 Brimstone Island 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Space Race 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Respectful Ed 6-1 3rd
5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Some way to start the early P4. A 14 horse turf sprint..
Best Value: #11 Pendulum 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #14 Wire Funds 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Usmc Semper Fi 20-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Corundum 5-1 8th
6th: 3rd Chick Lang, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)
Don’t get the even money on Innocent Man. At all..
Best Value: #2 Trippi’s Secret 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Innocent Man 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Laurie’s Rocket 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Il Villano 5-1 WON ($9.20)
7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Clare Skies Ahead 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #8 Happy Choice 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Nekia’s Vow 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Magical Merry 6-1 5th
8th: 26th MD Sprint H. (G3), 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)
Must-pay $168k C/O P5 starts here..
Best Value: #4 Wildcat Brief 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Diski Dance 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Hamazing Destiny 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #1 Immortal Eyes 5-1 6th
<$50 P4 Play:
5: 1-6-9-11-14
6: 2-3
7: 2-8
8: 1-3-4-7-8
5x2x2x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
9th: J. W. Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
You can cover the Clement ML bookend faves (#1 Easy Crossing/#12 Achilles-SCR) in multis and exotics, but you should be taking chances in this race. Could generate fireworks..
Best Value: #2 Skyring 8-1 WON ($19.60)
Next Best: #1 Easy Crossing 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: 9 Hammers Terror 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Mr. Handsome 20-1 3rd
$1 Exacta (2-1) $34.70
$1 Trifecta (2-1-6) $564.70
$1 Superfecta (2-1-6-9) $2,103.50
10th: 20th Allaire Dupont Distaff (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)
The Murphy is the place to bet Lukas. Absinthe Minded is a weak favorite here..
Most Likely: #5 Awesomemundo 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #6 Strike the Moon 20-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Absinthe Minded 9-5 8th
Exotics Use: #9 SCR
11th: 111th Dixie (G2), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)
Very nicely matched field..
Most Likely: #9 Air Support 6-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Straight Story 10-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Trend 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Smart Bid 7-2 5th
12th: 137th Preakness (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super Hi-5)
As discussed for 2 weeks, Derby players are the principals here. Bodemeister has every advantage and opportunity to win this while I’ll Have Another appears to be poised for another premium effort. Creative Cause has proven himself tough and dependable while fans of late field addition Daddy Nose Best may be rewarded here with at least an exotics boost. Of the fresh faces, Tiger Walk should finally save ground and Zetterholm is good now..
Most Likely: #7 Bodemeister 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #9 I’ll Have Another 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Daddy Nose Best 12-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Creative Cause 6-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #1 Tiger Walk 30-1 8th
.50 TRI: 7-9 with 1-4-6-7-8-9 with 1-4-5-6-7-8-9-11 (2x5x6 = 60 x .50 = $30)
<$100 P5 Play:
8: 1-3-4-7-8
9: 1-2-6-9-10
10: 5
11: 4-5-7-9
12: 7-9
5x5x1x4x2 = 200 x .50 = $100
<$75 P4 Play:
9: 1-2-3-6-9-10
10: 5
11: 3-4-5-7-9-11
12: 6-7-8-9
6x1x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
$0.50 Pick 4 (2-5/9-3-9) Paid $233.10.