$3,500 P4 cap big Friday night; Eclectic Saturday on tap..
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
A bit wrung out from long day Friday that turned into a very late, but worthwhile, night. Hope you did well on what I felt was a very strong night of horse play ending with the $3,500 late P4 at the ‘Wood… Hope I can do half as well Saturday with a variety of interesting action on tap…
BELMONT PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES
7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #7 Clay County 2-1
Best Value: #10 Americanus 6-1
Next Best: #2 Api Mohkat 4-1
Super Add: #3 Matthew T C 10-1
8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #3 Miller’s Mint 4-1
OK Value: #7 Early Response 4-1
Next Best: #5 William Thomas 3-1
Super Add: #6 Reread the Footnotes 7-2
9th: 66th New York (G2), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (DD, Super)
Criticism can win.. can be 6th. Prices on the 1, 2, 4 and 7 should determine how you structure plays. Dynaforce is the likeliest winner, and suggest a $1 tri key of 6 with 1-2-3-4-7 for $20.
Most Likely: #6 Dynaforce 3-1
Best Value: #1 Colina Verde 10-1
Next Best: #3 Criticism 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Bella Allure 5-1
10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (Super)
Best Value: #6 Masterofthehouse 8-1
Most Likely: #13 (AE) Manchild 9-2
Next Best: #8 Wild Way 7-2
Super Add: #7 Lion’s Lair 6-1
OFF THE TURF: 16-14-6-15
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 2-3-7-8-10
8: 3-5-6-7-10
9: 6
10: 6-8-AE 13 (If no AE 13, 7) Off/Turf: 6-14-16
5x5x1x3 = $75
CALDER RACE COURSE
SPOT PLAY
8th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f
#8 THANK U PHILIPPE (8-1): Wolfson Proud Accolade baby tries again after not getting in last Saturday. May be facing slightly better here than last week’s prospective cast, but still should ace exam first out of box. Note that #6 Flashy Dancer is a half brother of the outstanding 8x stake winner Smok’n Frolic
COLONIAL
PRE-SCRATCHES
9th: Buckland, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, Super)
Most Likely: #13 Smart and Fancy 7-5
Best Value: #9 Kosmo’s Buddy 15-1
Next Best: #3 Ahvee’s Destiny 3-1
Super Add: #4 Fancy Diamond 12-1
10th: All Along (G3), F&M-3+, 9f-T (Super)
Most Likely: #7 Indescribable 7-2
Best Value: #5 Icon Project 6-1
Next Best: #4 I Lost My Choo 5-2
Super Add: #3 Tejida 12-1
11th: Colonial Turf Cup (G2), 9.5f-T (DD, Super)
Best Value: #3 Rescue Squad 6-1
Most Likely: #8 Battle of Hastings 2-1
Next Best: #5 Take the Points 3-1
Super Add: #7 Final Count 12-1
<$25 P3 Play:
9: 13
10: 3-4-5-7
11: 3-5-6-7-8-10
1x4x6 = $24
CHARLES TOWN
PRE-SCRATCHES
7th: 2nd Lady Charles Town, 3yo-F, 4,5f (P4, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #3 Love That Dance 4-1
Best Value: #6 Don’tgetsuspicious 5-1
Next Best: #7 Onearmedbandit 7-2
Super Add: #8 Hollywood Hills 3-1
8th: Wild and Wonderful, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #2 No Advantage 5-2
Best Value: #1 Place Your Bet 6-1
Next Best: #7 Acting Zippy 4-1
Super Add: #5 Ah Day 5-1
9th: 10th Charles Town Dash H., 3+, 4.5f (DD, Super)
Best Value: #10 Love’s Strong Hart 15-1
Most Likely: #8 Trust or Bust 6-1
Next Best: #7 Ikigai 5-2
Super Add: #5 Eaton’s Gift 8-1
10th: Red Legend, 3yo, 7f (DD, Super)
Most Likely: #4 Russell Road 3-1
Best Value: #8 Forty Thieves 15-1
Next Best: #9 Big Drama 8-5
Super Add: #1 (POE) Great Love 8-1
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 3-6-7-8
8: 1-2
9: 7-8-10
10: 4-8-9
4x2x3x3 = $72
Good luck!
Steve
FRIDAY NIGHT (6/19) RESULTS
Came away empty-handed and $250 lighter in the bankroll Thursday after noble try at the Hollywood carryover. Good news is we all get another shot late tonight with a pool at $550k+ and likely to approach $3,000,000.
Although the late P4 recouped a tiny sum, losing the photo between Senor Afortunado (P4 paid $100+) and Magna Cum Laude (P4 would pay $500+) in that nightcap was the difference in breaking even on the day after the $288 and $72 P6 and P4 investments.
It was a super tough sequence in which having the right single (Delta Storm in the Kerlan) and one of the $30+ horses (Tidal Dance in the 4th) felt really good but delivered nothing to the bottom line. Hope you fared OK…
Fabulous racing night ahead though with Churchill running from 6pm to 11:15pm (EST) and Hollywood commencing at 10;05pm EST and wrapping at 1:20pm (EST). Should be a special evening for racing fans and horseplayers…
CHURCHILL DOWNS
PRE-SCRATCHES
1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #2 Kinsale With Me 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 More Rum 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Goldfinder 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Jimanator 8-1 2nd
2nd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #2 Queen Stephanie 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #3 Namaste’s Wish 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Gloria Goodbody 3-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Sharbat 2-1 5th
3rd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #4 Broadway Bertie 6-5 WON
Best Value: #7 Queen Gracie 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Terrell Cheney 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Metro Devil 5-2 3rd
4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #5 Ocean Colors 3-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Rock ‘n’ Roll Gal 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1e E. Reed entry 9-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Nadadora 10-1 7th
<$75 P4 Play:
1: 2-3
2: 1-2-3
3: 1-4-5-7
4: 1-2-3-5-7-9
2x3x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
5th:
Group of firsters with little to guide you but trainer/sire stats; Note that Legends Racing Stable debuts here with DWL’s #5 Rapport, a $475k buy and half sister of the memorable Adieu..
Best Value: #2 Ad Litem 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #1e M. Scherer entry 4-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Rapport 7-2 8th
Super Add: #8 Sixtysix Margaux 3-1 4th
6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super, Super High 5)
Most Likely: #10 Whirling Thunder 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Home Field 6-1 7th
Next Best: #11 (AE) SCR
Super Add: #4 Buriedbeyondbelief 10-1 5th
High 5 Play: #3 Dahlgoneit 8-1 6th
7th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #6 My Boy Jo 8-1 WON
Most Likely: #5 Chapel by the Sea 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Ten Is Enough 5-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Dookie Duck 10-1 8th
<$75 P4 Play:
4: 1-5-9
5: 1-2-5-7-8-9
6: 5-10
7: 4-5-6-7
3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #1e Smith entry 4-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Humor at Last 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Farragots Follies 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Chief Waterbury 5-1 5th
9th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #4 Agastache 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #7 SCR
Next Best: #5 Chris Got Even 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Saratoga Seven 20-1
10th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)
Most Likely: #4 Golden Country 5-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Flying Pegasus 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Goldolphin Gray 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Fort Apache 6-1 6th
11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)
Best Value: #9 Silver Stripes 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #8 Yankee Player 5-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Morning Magic 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Best Put 5-1 3rd
High 5 Play: #5 Con Lover 15-1 7th
<$75 P4 Play:
8: 1-3-4-7-8-9
9: 4-7
10: 1-3-4-5
11: 8-9-10
6x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
HOLLYWOOD PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES
3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #5 Royal Fortune 9-5 WON
Best Value: #2 Surprises Welcomed 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Gumption 3-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Shiksa 5-2 4th
4th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Principle Secret 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Saint Paul 12-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Yankee Visionary 5-2 3rd
5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, Super)
Most Likely: #1 Pacific Halo 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Fiery Rebel 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #13 Great Raid 3-1 4th
Super Add: #12 Izemine 6-1 5th
6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #11 Forest Phantom 9-2 WON
Most Likely: #2 Honouramongfriends 7-2 4th
Next Best: #10 Stand Tall 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Talk of a Cat 8-1 11th
7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)
Best Value: #2 Hiya Silver 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #1 Position A 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Hovig 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Fu Peg He Rat 12-1 4th
$1 Superfecta (2-1-7-3) Paid $353.90
8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5)
Most Likely: #3 Cactus Flyer 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Suances de Espana 8-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Kay S 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Pallotolla 8-1 9th
High 5 Play: #13 Be an Angel 20-1 8th
<$300 P6 Play:
3: 2-5
4: 3-5
5: 1-7-12-13
6: 11
7: 1-2-7
8: 2-3-10
2x2x4x1x3x3 = 144 x $2 = $288
<$75 P4 Play:
5: 1-7-9-12-13
6: 11
7: 1-2-7
8: 2-3-7-10-13
5x1x3x5 = $75 $1 Pick 4 (9-11-2-10) Paid $3,539.60
Good luck!
Steve