Very busy trying to provide Cup coverage this past week, so sorry about lack of Selections. Here’s my recap of some of the BC workout action from Saturday morning…

Most positive impression, ‘Work of the Day’ kind of effort, came from Smiling Tiger who absolutely sizzled in his dirt initiation (:58.3) as part of what turned into a mini-race with 5 horses, including Steve Hobby Turf aspirant Telling, breaking off together immediately following the break. The Bonde Sprint runner was not being asked and couldn’t have looked more comfortable and inhaled the pair that started ahead of him in the impromptu set…

Also looking very strongly was F&M Turfer Red Desire under Desormeaux who started slow (:25) but finished full of run (1:00.0)…

Paddy O’Prado probably was third best with his typical efficient drill that saw him go 5f in 1:01.0 and gallop out 6f in 1:13.4 under Tammy Fox. The Classic hopeful was under a static hold and was pricking his ears coming to the wire…

Champagne d’Oro (F&M Sprint) and Malibu Prayer (Distaff) both had solid half mile spins with the Guillot Acorn/Test heroine flashing especially sharp speed through the early portion of the work (:35.2) and Malibu Prayer efforting maintenance style under stout restraint (:49.0)…

One work leaving negative impression was that of Sadler F&M Sprint Switch… There were tons more but these were the ones that I was able to watch best and notate… Another big morning expected Sunday. More Mike Welsch, Gary Young and Steve Haskin Monday to keep you informed on Cup contenders and their Churchill preparations.

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Broken Home 5-1 10th
Best Value: #2 Sound Chaser 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Humiliarity 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Super Add: #4 Conflicted 8-1 9th

6th: 18th Turnback the Alarm (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #6 Awesome Maria

Most Likely: #1 Funny Moon 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Way With Words 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Our Khrysty 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #2 Banker’s Buy 12-1 4th

7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Taste 5-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Alberta the Cook 10-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Disarming 5-1 WON ($14.20)
Super Add: #2 By Land Or Sea 9-5 6th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Nurse Dolce 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Jill the Pill 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Zodiac Girl 7-2 9th
Super Add: #6 Miss Nepal 10-1 6th

9th: 35th Bold Ruler (G3), 3yo, 7f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Wildcat Brief 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Bribon 2-1 WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #2 Tahitian Warrior 5-2 4th
Super Add: #4 Roaring Lion 12-1 8th

10th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 I Dreamt I Was 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Bretton Woods 12-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Lakeside Chapel 5-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Bobity Boo 4-1 11th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 13
8: 5-6-8-11
9: 1-2-3
10: 1-2-4-6-10-11

1x4x3x6 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

At Belmont, there wasn’t anything out of the ordinary in the charts, but I missed the P4 by swinging for the fences. It turned out chalky, so there wasn’t anything to regret, and a sequence of modest P3’s were there to be had to fill in the blanks. Hope you did well! It was a fun day of race wagering and watching, with one revelation being the Wonder Filly ‘World Gone Wrong’ who won her 12th.. that’s right, 12th.. race of the year for Scott Lake, Ben Mondello and Adam Russo (Team Spooky Mulder). Lake will visit ATR this morning to talk about the Proud Citizen 4yo that is now 12/15 for ’10 and 25/17-3-1 in her career. Steve Margolis, Steve Haskin, Richard Eng, Tony Black and more on the big show! Another good day of racing on tap, with Belmont below now and likely a Keeeneland look later on…

P6 CARRYOVERS TODAY: Keeneland $33k; Woodbine $45k..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Half dozen or more here are within a length or two of each other, so you might as well go after the prices intra-race. You can always cover horses like Zubani and Elegant Bess, 3-1 and 7-2 and no better than the next 7-8, in the multis if you believe in them or want to respect their win chances..

Most Likely: #7 Bella Attrice 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Mesa Girl 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Mustang Fever 6-1 WON ($24.00)
Super Add: #4 Knockinelder 15-1 5th

$1 Exacta (6-7) Paid $56.50
$1 Trifecta (6-7-10) Paid $350.00

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 STRONG IMPACT 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Don’t Fooli Houli 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Spanish Fortune 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Slick Wheelie 6-1 3rd

6th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Song of Broadway most likely wins, but she’s not much horse and can certainly be bet against with zesto..

Most Likely: #1 Song of Broadway 3-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #5 Crystal Galopoff 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Eliza Grace 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Above the Call 5-1 3rd

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Don’t see where Lemon Spice or Laureate Conductor are all that much better than the next set of contenders, and especially consistant Lime Rickey who may relish an extra 110 yards and will be saving ground. Today may be the right day to key off him. Someone should have contacted Sunkist or the Florida Citrus Council about naming this race with Lime Rickey, Lemon Spice and Lemon Cream Pie signed on..

Best Value: #1 Lime Rickey 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Laureate Conductor 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #8 Pleasant Strike 5-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Lemon Cream Pie 4-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 1 with 3-4-7-8 with 3-4-7-8 with ALL (1x4x3x5 = 60 x .10 = $6.00)

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

2-1 makes Hittin the Note a bad favorite in this very quirky ALW..

Most Likely: #2 Fortitude 3-1 6th
Best Value: #9 One Turn Eddie 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Inherit the Gold 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #1 Hittin the Note 2-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Cat Be Nimble 7-2 WON ($7.30)
Next Best: #7 T Rae 9-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Dixie Kid 6-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Playful Majesty 30-1 2nd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 2-7 with 2-5-7 with 2-5-6-7-8-10 with ALL (2x2x4x7 = 112 x .10 = $11.20)

$1 Exacta (2-6) Paid $151.25

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-5
7: 1-4
8: 1-2-5-9
9: 2-5-7

3x2x4x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (1/4/5/2) Paid $95.75

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Attempted Humor 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #4 Doublefour 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Lucky Momento 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Tripp O Steel 4-1 9th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Perfect Prospector 4-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Windswept 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Rampaige 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #6 Street Flyer 30-1 3rd

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Manhattan Fox 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Hurricane Day 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Northern Giant 6-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #7 Snake River Canyon 6-1 7th

7th: CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Sweet N Sour Nina 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Ambitioness 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Moneigh 5-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Cactus Cadillac 12-1 7th

8th: 16th Sycamore (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Musketeer 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Brass Hat 5-1 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #11 Tajaweed 20-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Southern Anthem 50-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-1) Paid $233.10
$1 Trifecta (5-1-7) Paid $801.70
$1 Superfecta (5-1-7-11) Paid $6,912.50

9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Tough to call anyone in this ‘Most Likely’..

Most Likely: #11 Perfect Brother 8-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Grand Silver 5-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Just Blitz 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Zealous Yankee 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Hi-5 Play: #10 Irish Paul 4-1 12th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 4-5
5: 4
6: 8-9
7: 2-9-10
8: 5-7
9: 6-7-8-11

2x1x2x3x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 8-9
7: 2-9-10
8: 1-5-7-11
9: 6-7-8-10-11-12

2x3x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

De Price has not only run races good enough to win, he’s run races good enough to win STAKES! It’s remarkable, and a terrible indication of his liklihood to breakthrough anywhere, because he is a horse that refuses to pass a leader. These kind of horses can be tricked into winning sometimes through rides that get them to the wire before they have a chance to find a leader type to get behind. Edgar Prado gets a chance today, and maybe he can cajole this talented but maddening Aldebaran colt to a win, but you are obligated to look for alternatives to him as win candidates and multi-race includes..

Best Value: #4 Avenging Spirit 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 De Price 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Cinnamon Beach 10-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Sunrise Smarty 4-1 WON ($7.40)

5th: The Scoot, F&M-3+, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Queen Martha 3-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Daveron 7-2 WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #6 Mystic Miracle 12-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Liberally 6-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 3-5 with 3-5-6-7 with 1-3-5-6-7-8 with 1-3-5-6-7-8 (2x3x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Considerate 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #5 Strikealinethruit 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Nice and Naughty 3-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Rennina 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $16.70
$1 Trifecta (4-5-9) Paid $100.50

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Timuquana 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Truffles 5-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Cedar Grove 7-2 WON ($11.60)
Super Add: #6 Gorgelicious 8-1 4th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Chick in Slacks 4-1 WON ($9.30)
Next Best: #1a (POE) Song for Pupcake 2-1 4th/2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Proven Right 10-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Guiseppina 8-1 8th

9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #5 Lookin at Her 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 The Zipster 5-2 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #7 SCR
Super Add: #9 Four Star General 15-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play::

6: 3-4-5-9
7: 4
8: 1-6-7
9: 2-4-5-6-7-9

4x1x3x6 = $72

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f (.50 P4/P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Fantasma 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Deceive 9-2 10th
Next Best: #1 (POE) Beautiful Song 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #8 Lone Tigress 12-1 12th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Trippo 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Nikki’s Sandcastle 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Perfect Edge 5-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Threeforall 15-1 10th

8th: ALW/N2L, 2yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Bellaridge 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Holidaysatthefarm 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Catch That Kitten 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 A Brilliant Idea 5-2 6th

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Au Dixie 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Lady Symphony 7-2 10th
Best Value: #3 Sa Da Ve 5-1 12th
Exotics Use: #12 Umgababa 10-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Jazz Dancer 20-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play::

6: 1-3-6
7: 3-4-6-7-9
8: 9-10-11
9: 3-4-9

3x5x3x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50

POST-SCRATCHES

Woodbine, Calder, Charles Town and Delaware all feature multi-stake cards of varying quality and depth Saturday, with Belmont (G3 Athenia), Keeneland (G1 QE II) and Oak Tree/HollyPark (G2 Derby) all offering nice fare to start the weekend..

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

7th (4:21p): ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Take out the 3 impossible players and you’re left with some good ALW distaffers in an event made more interesting by the request of 12 panels..

Most Likely: #8 Pearly Blue 3-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #3 Clarinet 5-1 WON ($13.00)
Best Value: #5 Tarrip 5-2 6th
Super Add: #4 My Sugar Bear 12-1 5th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

No 50-1 auto-tosses in this head-spinning ALW for boys..

Most Likely: #5 Heart Butte 7-2 5th
Next Best: #10 Guys Reward 4-1 WON ($21.80)
Best Value: #4 Indianapolis 10-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Lentenor 3-1 7th

9th: 27th QE II Challenge Cup (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Top to bottom, a classy set for this important soph test. Evening Jewel, in the mix for the 3yo missy Eclipse, is the horse to beat, but this is a well-matched group offering a variety of running styles to guarantee an honest race..

Most Likely: #3 Evening Jewel 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Zagora 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Perfect Shirl 6-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Harmonious 4-1 WON ($7.00)

10th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

As if prior troika aren’t challenging enough, here’s a nightcap filled with some nicely bred 2yo including siblings of This One’s for Phil & Tap Dancer (Caseros), Lady Joanne & Baghdaria (Shackleford) and Shake You Down (Fifth District)..

Most Likely: #1 Perjury 7-2: 3 straight agonizing beats.. 7th
Best Value: #7 Excessive Assault 30-1: Upside of previous start.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Caseros 3-1: $630k Candy Ride; 2 SW sibs.. 12th
Exotics Use: #10 Jojo’s Mojo 6-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #6 Sporting Holiday 15-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-4-5-7-8-10
8: 4-5-10
9: 1-3
10: 1-7-8

7x3x2x3 = 126 x .50 = $63

WOODBINE

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 38th Nearctic (G1), 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Nothing particularly special about the 7yo imported 3-1 ML choice Balthazaar’s Gift..

Most Likely: #3 Bridgetown 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Sneaking Uponyou 15-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Grand Adventure 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Signature Red 12-1 7th

9th: 55th E. P. Taylor (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, Super)

Am quite willing to respect Miss Keller’s liklihood for success given the remarkable run of Roger Attfield, whose horses have run consistently well since mid-summer. Note that this race goes at 5:03p and the QE II (KEE 9) at 5:23p. A strong effort from Cumani’s Contredanse here reflects well on Zagora there 20 minutes later..

Most Likely: #6 Miss Keller 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Reggane 8-1 WON ($22.80)
Next Best: #1 Shalanaya 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Contredanse 3-1 4th

$2 Exactor (5-6) Paid $115.90
$1 Triactor (5-6-1) Paid $263.25
$1 Superfecta (5-6-1-7) Paid $758.60

10th: 73rd Pattison Canadian International (G1), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Bit of an odd assembly for this $2,000,000 fall standard, and I’m interested in the 1-2 finishers from the Bowling Green in Al Khali and Simmard. Both have the look of improving sorts, and are prices from notoriously capable grass conditioners..

Most Likely: #5 Al Khali 6-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Simmard 15-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Marsh Side 4-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Redwood 2-1 3rd

11th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super)

Clever way for Woodbine to finish a P4 that starts with 3 G1 races worth $3.5 million with this stupifyingly bad race. As such, it requires a toss of the ML choices who are parked as wide as possible..

Best Value: #6 Vaneasto 20-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Repentant Spirit 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Putyourgamefaceon 30-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Tequila Max 6-1 9th

<$100 P4 Play:

8: 3-8
9: 1-5-6-7
10: 4-5-6-8
11: 6-8-11

2x4x4x3 = $96