SANTA ANITA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Elder MDN’s that appear to be largely OK despite late starts to their careers. Firster #7 Roman Threat and comebackers #2 Noble Exchange/#3 Ranchero are the problematic intruders v. formful #6 Ranchero and #8 Southern Sunrise..

Most Likely: #8 Southern Sunrise 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Randazo 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Ranchero 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Roman Threat 7-2 WON ($14.20)

7th: CLM, 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 They Call Him El 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Times Gone By 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Sandor 3-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Special Kid 8-1 6th

8th: 60th Las Flores (G3), F&M-4+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

There’s not going to be any great value here with short prices certain to be dominant in the top slots, so looking to get through in the multis. Izzy Rules will take some catching it appears if she breaks with the increasing alacrity she’s shown during this skien. It remains to be seen if G1 Santa Monica winner Home Sweet Aspen can win from somewhere other than the lead and only her hooking up with Izzy can assure potential for an off pace type rally from cutback candidate Great Hot or She’s Cheeky. In between the front pair and the back pair will be Spectacular Sky who can stalk or prompt. Veloce Canzone seems like the outsider among the sextet. Interesting event despite the limited cast..

Most Likely: #2 Izzy Rules 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #4 Home Sweet Aspen 5-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Spectacular Sky 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Great Hot 3-1 4th

9th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 After Later 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Song Girl 9-2 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #1 Scream Queen 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Blue Samurai 3-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #9 One Bad Texter 7-2 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 8
7: 1-3
8: 1-2-4-5-6
9: 1-5-6-8-9

1x2x5x5 = $50 ($25 for .50)

Biggest opportunity of Friday was missed by a diminishing neck when longest shot on the board (26-1) Cat Man Fu and Dennis Carr just failed to reach loose leader Chilton in the 6th. The winner, himself more than 11-1, was given out on ATR by Brisnet’s Ed DeRosa and the exacta we kicked around between the two returned $174 ($1). A little surprised that the P6 was hit in NY with Chilton’s win and $29.60 Mess in a Dress taking the 7th. But the rest of the sequence was formful and two winners each took home $14,500. Hope you did OK!

As predicted with Hammer, Santa Anita went unhit Friday and $59k starts the pot today. There is also a $55k C/O at Golden Gate. Swale, Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe are all intriguing for the 3yo’s today.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T/24′ (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Old Time Hockey 3-1: Note winner from last tries TAM Derby.. WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #1 Monarchic 5-1: Sis Mrs. Lindsey a Gr. 1 turf victress.. 2nd
Next Best: #9 Ragazzi 12-1: Half Little Belle won Ashland on synth.. 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Gnostic 20-1: Expect better as Mott adds hood 2nd start.. 5th

8th: Gulfstream Park H. (G2), 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Short but nice cast as Jackson Bend moves forward from Hal’s Hope season opening win. Gets to survey landscape from outside and is strictly one to beat. Defending race winner Tackleberry comes back from long break and working smoothly for return. May come back running based on strong series of Calder drills including eye-popping :47.1 last Saturday..

Most Likely: #6 Jackson Bend 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Tackleberry 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Mucho Macho Man 8-5 WON ($3.20)

9th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T/84′ (P3, DD, Super)

Trickier division of the two events with 7th..

Most Likely: #10 Bridge Loan 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Double Crossing 8-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Valley Stream 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Mr E Phillip 20-1 5th

10th: Swale (G3), 3yo, 7f (DD, Super)

The longer I’ve looked at this group the more quizical they appear. There’s no shortage of pace lined up, so the inclination is to look for stalker-closers and Bahamian Squall, Fawkes brother of Apriority, fits the bill. Both of Good Morning Diva’s races have been ‘key’ and I’ll be be surprised if he doesn’t give a good account of himself at a nice number. He’s also the field’s lone winner at the trip..

Best Value: #6 Bahamian Squall 12-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Good Morning Diva 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Ever So Lucky 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Quick Wit 10-1 7th

11th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7.5f-T/24′ (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Dodging 5-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Back Room Deal 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Dateful Gred 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Volcano Run 2-1 3rd

<$150 P5 Play:

7: 1-3
8: 1-2-6
9: 6-10
10: 6-7-10
11: 1-6-7-10

2x3x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-6
9: 6-10
10: 1-2-5-6-7-10
11: 1-6-7-10

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$59k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Jim’s Decision 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Spicy Beau 8-1 WON ($17.00)
Next Best: #2 Megaride 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Seek the Light 3-1 9th

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Stormberg 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Depriciable 6-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #2 Mr. Make Believe 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Kumiva 4-1 3rd

7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Only one in this cast has made starts and a number of the rest are nicely bred. Splendid Fortune (Gian’t Causeway) is out of the excellent MG2SW mare House of Fortune; My Selection (Badge of Silver) is half to KMc stake turfer Soldat; Jolly Days (Street Cry) dropped by excellent G3SW Hour of Justice and Marinda (Scat Daddy) is out of Team Valor G3SW Bella Bella Bella..

Most Likely: #5 My Selection 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #8 Marinda 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Splendid Fortune 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Fly Solo 6-1 8th

8th: China Doll, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Excellent set for this 10th running of race named by Hammerle for quiet  Grateful Dead tune. Respect the shorter numbers but will work around 6-1 stretchout Vionnet who seems progressive..

Best Value: #5 Vionnet 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Indigo River 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lady of Shamrock 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #9 She Spirit di Su 6-1 8th

9th: San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Race lost slight edge with injury departure of Out of Bounds, but many of the Cali Derby Trailers are on hand to make this mighty entertaining. Race hinges to great extent on decision of Carava to keep American Act in race or head for Sunland Derby. His exit would leave Bodemeister alone on lead and difficult to beat. And Bodemeister may be difficult to beat even if American Act stays in the race. Beyond that, there doesn’t seem to be any implausable ideas for filling out the superfecta.

Most Likely: #2 Bodemeister 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Blingo 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Creative Cause 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Groovin’ Solo 20-1 10th

10th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Zander 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Already There 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Warren’s Wesley 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Master Rudy 5-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Dr. Evil 3-1 3rd

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 3-7
6: 2-4-7
7: 5
8: 3-5
9: 1-2
10: 4-7-11

2x3x1x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 ($1) P4 Play:

7: 5
8: 2-3-5
9: 1-2-5-6-7
10: 4-7-11

1x3x5x3 = $45 ($22.50 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (5/2/7/2,3,7,9) Paid $100.70

Missed Chad Brown firster in GP 8th Thursday which cost the solid $500 P4. As good as Brown is, debuting horses over a mile (2/27) and in Maiden Claimers (0/12) looked like areas to avoid, but Thunderous Lady was a mile the best. Santa Anita was as tough as anticipated, but I did manage to get out pretty whole on the day when 6-1 ML debuter Love That Action floated to a hefty 18-1 and ran down the Baffert favorite in the shadow of the wire. Once again, Andy Harrington’s National Turf workout reports showed their value by pointing out that Love That Action was showing real zip in the morning and looked to be a fit with the Cal-bred MSW set. Here were the comments.

LOVE THAT ACTION: Mar 3 HOL 5f/1:00.3H (B-): Best in a set for Mitchell galloping late while in blinkers going 25.1, 49.2, 101.1 out in 114.3. Built to have some speed.

LOVE THAT ACTION: Feb 27 HOL 4f/:48.4H (B-): Some speed here in 23.3 then basically galloped out in 48.3. Seems to have some early lick.

I wasn’t aware at first pass at the PP’s, but by mentioning that Love That Action worked with a Mitchell set, Harrington helped clue me to discover that co-owner and listed trainer Phil D’Amato is Mike Mitchell’s assistant; a fact that built confidence that the first time starter was at least worth including. When he got lost on the board, he became a good play. At $9.95 a card, National Turf is a tremendous companion to your work on the SA-HOL-DMR circuit. Hope you did OK yesterday! Aqueduct has another good Friday card ahead of the huge Saturday of action across the country..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Caught by You 8-5 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #6 City Scamper 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Karakorum Magic 3-1 6th (Pulled up/Eased/Something odd)
Exotics Use: #3 She’s Always Hot 5-1 3rd

5th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ruffino 3-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #1 Diamond District 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 With a Cape 12-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Quietism 6-1 4th

6th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Top choices look best but I think we should tinker with bonus number (15-1) on #5 Cat Man Fu who could run his best while returning to appropriate company and getting a rider upgrade..

Most Likely: #2 Ali’s Winner 4-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Cat Man Fu 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Stage Debut 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Parachute Coney 3-1 3rd

7th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Tough to get creative with the three faves looking clearly best..

Most Likely: #3 Mill Branch Millie 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Supsa 7-2 DQ’d to 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Lunchwithgodzilla 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Shea Goodbye 5-1 4th

8th: S-OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Judicial Leader 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Bid a Moon 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Natalie Victoria 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Super Add: #4 Speedy’s Gal 15-1 6th

9th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #10 System Restore 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Power King 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Brunelli 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Khan of Khans 4-1 WON ($6.00)

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-5-7
7: 3-6-7
8: 1-2-6
9: 3-7-9-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Avoided the allure of the Aqueduct P6 carryover Wednesday and while the $58k payoff was attractive, my idea would have been knocked out in the first leg. Utilizing P4 and P3 approaches paid off handsomely though with Romancing the Gold — whom Andy Serling lauded in the Tuesday ATR preview — keying the $262 quad and rolling P3’s scores of $343, $194 and $151… A fun day with the money typically earmarked for the P6 wisely utilized elsewhere. In addition to a positive NY outcome for the good guys, Gus Alonso further provided ATR listeners and DT players with nearly $500 in his Hawthorne P4 tab. Hope you did well! Two challenging P4 sequences Thursday at Gulfstream and Santa Anita.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-9-11
8: 3-5-9-10
9: 4-7-9
10: 1-7-8-12

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

#2 Candy and Thunder a SCR..

Most Likely: #3 Adios Problemas 4-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Backwoods Belle 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Love My Way 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Belle Gallantey 12-1 3rd

6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Lauren C 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Roman Chic 8-5 7th
Exotics Use: #3 R Vicarious Girl 3-1 2nd
Super Add; #4 Blue Tambourine 5-2 WON ($14.00)

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Caelis 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Trevini 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Last Sting 7-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Screaming Regal 15-1 8th

8th: Cal-MSW, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Alworth 5-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Very Unusual 6-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Derby Gold 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Love That Action 6-1 WON ($38.60)

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 3
6: 3-4-5-7
7: 1-4-5-7
8: 3-4-5-7-9

1x4x4x5 = 80 x .50 = $40

Like Sunday’s big Santa Anita carryover, this sequence gives me the feeling that it cannot be hit with a reasonably priced ticket. Will see if SCR’s help the cause, but for now will focus on the two P4’s, P3’s and in-race exotic play..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6 , P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Briolette 5-2 8th
Next Best: #2 Eurosensation 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Little Halo 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 City Vice 7-2 3rd

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M=4+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Clean Jean 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Next Best: #1 Tatoo Me 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 By M K 8-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Illgiveyouwhatever 6-1 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-5-6
3: 1-9
4: 1-2-5
5: 1-5-6-7

4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Bojan 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #5 No Detour 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Brazen Cat 7-2 3rd

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Day’s best race and as mentioned by Andy Serling Tuesday, Street Life is expected to SCR..

Most Likely: #9 Two Seventeen 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Romancing the Gold 20-1 WON ($26.60)
Next Best: #7 Inflation Target 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Panthro 3-1 4th

8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Pretty Cozzy 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Bailzee 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Fiona Storm 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #7 Jackie Mo 5-1 5th

9th: CLM, 4+, 5.5f (Super)

Best Value: #5 Pressure Point 12-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Dahlgren Chapel 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #12 No Questions 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Wetzel 4-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 3-5
7: 3-7-9
8: 1-3-4-7
9: 5-6-10-12

2x3x4x4 =96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/3/3,5/1,6) Paid $262.50