Had all the necessary sequence winners somewhere Sunday at Santa Anita but couldn’t hook them all up on the $144 budget. As discussed with Johnny D. and Jon White Monday, who both went 5/6, the carryover skien really paid well ($25k) and all of us came away maddened at having flirted with a score. There were some nice mutuels throughout the fun weekend closeout and hope everyone did well. Another C/O ($31k) to start the week as Belmont begins its’ run of the final 5 days of the year..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$31k C/O starts here..

Weak group. Small tix will have to lean on McPeek’s favored Saturday Appeal and hope for the best. Sure feels like a firster will have some talent and contend, but not a lot of clues as to whom..

Most Likely: #3 Saturday Appeal 9-5 (A) 6th
Best Value: #9 Zeddemore 15-1 (B) 4th
Next Best: #2 No Nukes 8-1 (C) 5th
Exotics Use: #8 G W’s Hammer 20-1 (C) 8th

6th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value:: #10 Victorious Leader 4-1 (A) 9th
Next Best: #4 East of Danzig 7-2 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Louie Mondello 8-1 (C) 2nd
Super Add: #9 Day of Destiny 30-1 (X) 10th

7th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Big Business (2-1) is the pick should he be the entrymate that runs, but This Hard Land (15-1) SCRATCHED gets back to state-breds and the strip he likes best..

SCR Note: Most Happy Fella ran Sunday and was claimed by Contessa for Hal Lerner and will likely come out..

Most Likely: #1a Big Business 2-1 (A) WON ($3.20)
Nexr Best: #5 Iron Lou 8-1 (C) 3rd
Best Value: #11 Southbeachsandy 12-1 (X) 6th
Exotics Use: #10 B Shanny 5-1 (X) 7th

8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

This is a fun betting race because the ones that will take money (Seductress, Caribean Beat, Highland Dancer) are just OK. As pointed out by Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR, Joe O’s Miss Tapit (12-1) starts a second time sporting a rasher of positive ROI stats. Grace’s Neh Neh (30-1) is doing that Pat Kelly thing of racing into shape. Drops down and gets 5-8#’s on the field. Bwahahaha..

Most Likely: #6 Miss Tapit 12-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #2 Grace’s Neh Neh 30-1 (B) 6th
Next Best: #11 Caribean Beat 7-2 (B) WON ($13.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Seductress 3-1 (C) 2nd
Super Add: #3 Highland Dancer 4-1 (C) 7th

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Toughest set in the sequence..

Best Value: #7 Porvoo 12-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #2e Broman entry 3-1 (A) WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #8 Lady Yellow Tail 6-1 (B) 5th
Super Add: #9 Manero 4-1 (B) 3rd

“C’s”: #1 Alwaysinmycircle (8-1); #4 Hlao Roo (6-1); #5 Missymoonlitmagic (20-1); #6 Junoon (7-2)

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T

Best Value: #9 King Keene 8-1 (A) 10th
Next Best: #5 Back Room Deal 3-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Dervish Prince 5-1 (B) 7th
Super Add: #6 Here Comes Drz 5-2 (C) 2nd

<$75 P6 Play:

5: 3 (9)
6: 4-10 (2)
7: 1
8: 2-6-11
9: 2-7 (8-9)
10: 2-5-9

1x2x1x3x2x3 = 36 x $2 = $72

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1
8: 2-3-6-9-11
9: 1-2-7-8-9
10: 2-5-6-9

1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$61k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #1 Megastar 8-5 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #3 Unusual Jazz 10-1 (B) 3rd
Next Best: #7 Green Secret 4-1 (C) WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #5 SCR

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Somenchanted Evenin 6-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #5 Sweetrayofsunshine 3-1 (A) WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Burton’s Angel 6-1 (B) 3rd
Super Add: #3 Itsphun 7-2 (C) 6th

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Downhill always super-competitive and will pass on short price returnee Eula B. off the break..

Most Likely: #6 Point Cadet 9-2 11th
Next Best: #13 (AE) SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Urania 4-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Pogonip 6-1 WON ($17.80)
SCR Sub: #8 Corinthian Melody 20-1 2nd

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Only 4 have experience in this group but there are debuting filles that could pop. Breeding on display with Baffert firster Heartless, a half to speedy Force Freeze, and Escape Act, half to Papa Clem for Bo Hirsch and Gary Stute..

Most Likely: #4 Lady Rosamond 7-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #10 Imwiththeblonde 3-1 (A) WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Heartless 5-1 (B) 9th
Best Value: #2 SCR

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #6 No Silent 9-5 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #7 Accelerant 9-2 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Starspangled Heat 9-2 (C) WON ($9.20)

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #14 Awkward Mondays 3-1 (A) WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #8 Coranto 6-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #10 Goodbye Charlie 8-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Late SCR
Super/Hi-5: #6 Star of America 4-1 (C) 7th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1
5: 4-5
6: 1-6-13 (1-6-9 if 13 not in)
7: #2 SCR-4-10-11
8: 6
9: 8-10-14

1x2x3x4x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-6-13 (1-6-9 if 13 not in)
7: #2 SCR-4-6-8-10-11
8: 6-7
9: 4/Late SCR-8-10-14

3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Kenneally can win with a firster and introduces Graceful Meghan, a full sister to 2010 Ballerina (G1) winner Rightly So..

Best Value: #9 Graceful Meghan 4-1
Next Best: #7 Nonnie Connie 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Shake Senora 8-1
Super Add: #8 Miss Rubycubes 10-1

<$25 DD: 9 with 4-6-7 (1×3 x $6 = $18); 9 with 1-3-9 (1×3 x $2 = $6)

2nd: 33rd Iroquois-NY, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Interesting start to the Showcase action with all but 2-5-8 looking capable on best. Make sure to appreciate the difference between success sprinting 7f v. success at 6f..

Most Likely: #7 Risky Rachel 5-2
Next Best: #6 Beautiful But Blue 7-2
Best Value: #4 Miss Valentine 8-1
Exotics Use: #3 Agave Kiss 2-1

3rd: MSW-NY, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Prime Devil 3-1
Next Best: #8 U Whippersnapper 10-1
Exotics Use: #5 Readtheprospectus 5-1
Super Add: #12 Post Pattern 5-1

4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

This turned kind of ugly with the move to the main..

Most Likely:#2 A Prettydixie
Next Best: #3 Group Therapy
Exotics Use: #5 Isn’tshewonderful
Super Add: #9 Jersusalem Stone

5th: 34th Bongard-NY, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Tough to argue against Serpe and Weekend Hideaway who exit middling G2 Futurity try..

Most Likely: #4 Weekend Hideaway 5-2
Next Best: #2 In Harm’s Way 4-1
Best Value: #11 Tequila Hero 15-1
Exotics Use: #12 Meet the Mets 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-6-7
3: 2-5-8
4: 2-3-5-9
5: 2-4-11-12

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: 35th Hudson-NY, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Saginaw 4-5
Best Value: #7 Neatie the Cat 15-1
Next Best: #4 Mine Over Matter 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Shrewd One 3-1

7th: 32nd Ticonderoga-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Hessonite 4-5
Best Value: #11 Considerate 30-1
Next Best: #12 Prize Doll 12-1
Exotics Use: #5 Kibosh 10-1

.10 SUPER: 1 with 5-11-12 with 2-5-8-10-11-12 with 2-5-6-7-8-10-11-12 (1x3x5x6 = 90 x .10 = $9.00)

8th: 19th Gimma-NY, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Kelli Got Frosty 6-1
Next Best: #2 Agilion 4-1
Exotics Use: #9 Heidi’s Holiday 6-1
Super Add: #5 Carameaway 5-1

9th: 36th Empire Classic-NY, 3+, 9f (DD)

Not making any bones about rooting interest for Saratoga Snacks here, but Lunar Victory has been close to perfect since coming stateside. Gets outside draw for stalking trip and will take some beating. Snacks dismantled a quality open company ALW field last month stretching to mile and finishes races like the next 220 yards will be OK with him. Needs to make up about 3 lengths on Lunar Victory; gets about half that in weight so must take another forward step to win. Sailmate (6-1) and Fiddlers Afleet are the interesting prices to use along with the top pair..

Most Likely: #8 Lunar Victory 8-5
Next Best: #6 Saratoga Snacks 9-5
Best Value: #1a (POE) Fiddlers Afleet 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Sailmate 6-1

10th: 32nd Mohawk-NY, 3+, 8.5f-T

Compliance Officer will come out with an ankle injury. Minnie Punt’s owners told Andy Serling in Friday chat that they were coming out as well due to the soft turf..

Most Likely: #5 Lubash 3-1
Best Value: #4 Street Game 5-1
Next Best: #1 Strong Impact 5-2
Exotics Use: #8 Unbridled Command 4-1

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1
8: 2-5-6-9-10
9: 6-8 (1-3)
10: 5 (4)

1x5x2x1 = 10 x $2 = $20
1x5x4x2 = 40 x .50 = $20

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Wide open scramble to start the P4..

Most Likely: #10 O T B Bob 9-2
Best Value: #4 Hey Leroy 20-1
Next Best: #6 Forward Thinker 4-1
Exotics Use: #11 Saylor’s Creek 6-1

8th: ALW/M2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Kiss in the Forest 5-2
Best Value: #7 Sympathy Act 10-1
Next Best: #3 Cat Lore 3-1
Exotics Use: #5 Standing By 5-1

9th: 14th Raven Run (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (DD)

Outrageous 14 horse lineup with some legit logicals and fun prices to mix and match..

Most Likely: #10 Via Villagio 4-1
Best Value: #3 La Tia 8-1
Next Best: #11 Gypsy Robin 3-1
Exotics Use: #14 Sacristy 8-1
Super Add: #5 Yankee Union 30-1

10th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Eddie Set Go 8-1
Next Best: #12 Codoy 5-1
Exotics Use: #7 Proud Warrior 5-1
Super Add: #9 Kid Galahad 9-2

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-9-10-11
8: 7-9
9: 3-5-10-11-14
10: 7-8-12

5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 #2 In Step Dancer 5-1 8th
Best Value: #3 Propelleroneway 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Bold Kitten 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Remember Then 3-1 WON ($8.20)

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Does Dark Nebula have to win here? She’s best on paper but note that she finished 2nd a disconcerting 4 times before the maiden breaker. Larry Jones has had a zipless meet (9/0-1-0), but Juliet’s Promise (6-1) off the break has potential..

Best Value: #10 Juliet’s Promise 6-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Dark Nebula 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Cataract Canyon 12-1 WON ($17.80)
Super Add: #11 Street Mate 15-1 6th

7th: Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

I’m calling her Best Value but Colonial Flag will be lower than 6-1..

Best Value: #6 Colonial Flag 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Medolina 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Miss Cato 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Volcat 12-1 9th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Nearly impossible group. If track is slick after rain and with cooler temps, I suppose Imposing Grace could be a wire threat, but she has only succeeded on easy leads. Beyond that, any scenario you come up with can work. As much as I fear dealing with the $7,500 claiming nightcap, this is a spot frought with danger..

Most Likely: #3 Gloat 4-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Langcita 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Fast Bobbi J 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Oaks Lily 12-1 10th

9th: Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Hard to argue with Chad Brown’s success in spots like these (Pianist), but there are 2-3 that are serious contenders with her. Note that plus efforts from Miss Cato/Volcat in the 1st division flatters Pucker Up players Leading Astray and Freedom Reigns..

Best Value: #1 Miz Ida 5-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #4 Pianist 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Leading Astray 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Dancing Solo 6-1 –

10th: CLM, 3+, 9f (Super Hi-5)

Some finish to a quality sequence..

Best Value: #7 Copper Cascade 15-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Five Afleet 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Precipice Trail 6-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #2 Sudden War 4-1 11th

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-9-10
7: 6
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-4-9-12
10: 1-2-6-7

3x1x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-6
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-4-9-12
10: 1-2-6-7-8

2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60