AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 41st Busanda, 3yo-F, 1m-70 (P4, P3, DD)

Understand viewing Camille Claudel as a mudlark off the jump up maiden win in LRL slop, but note Tres Abbott added blinkers to the package for that effort which may have been more influential than footing. Happy to take a chance on a 10-1 stranger in this oddball assembly where pace scenario and styles are plenty murky..

Best Value: #4 Camille Claudel 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Alpaca Fina 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Flipcup 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Fleet of Gold 6-1 3rd

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD)

As Nick Tammaro said yesterday, a hodge-podge of allowance & starter types that ends up being a well matched set. Favored Hot Stones (2-1) a giant question mark on stretchout. Endless Chatter (6-1) fits the pattern we’ve been noting on ATR of a horse who returns to the scene off an extended break (10 months) and may be much better now than when she left. Rare chance at a price on Chad Brown barn runner..

Most Likely: #6 What the Frost 5-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Endless Chatter 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Holiday’s Jewel 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Hundred Acre Wood 20-1 2nd

8th: 144th Jerome (G2), 3yo, 1m-70y (DD)

Rich Migliore’s ‘History of the Game’ piece on the storied Jerome: http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/videos/…me-the-jerome/

Not a lot of speed here and Noble Moon should have every chance to control this from down inside..

Most Likely: #1 Noble Moon 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #7 Classic Giacnroll 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Matuszak 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Scotland 7-2 3rd

9th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f

Anchor leg of perilous sequence has a number of mojo options including runners for new outfits (Gabrilicious and Speedy Lee D from Rudy Rod; Merryland Moon back to Midwest TB and adding blinkers; Guyana Princess first off claim for Riccio/Nevin). Question here is pace with Speedy Lee D and Thetrainwasgone confirmed frontrunners and little else certain to be part of the early mix. If one or the other gets loose, they can wire. If someone else gets aggressive and prompts, we’ll get a fair rendering. Very tough end to difficult P4..

Most Likely: #7 Merryland Moon 8-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Matching Skies 20-1 WON ($14.60)
Next Best: #2 Gabrilicious 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Promised Mandate 12-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6 with 2 with 1 with 1,7 – $3.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7 with 2 with 1 with 1,7 – $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6 with 4,6 with 1 with 1,7 – $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6 with 2 with 7 with 1,7 – $3.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6 with 2 with 1 with 2,5 – $3.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7 with 4,6 with 1 with 1,7 – $4.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7 with 2 with 7 with 1,7 – $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7 with 2 with 1 with 2,5 – $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6 with 4,6 with 7 with 1,7 – $6.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6 with 4,6 with 1 with 2,5 – $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6 with 2 with 7 with 2,5 – $3.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,8 with 2 with 1 with 1,7 – $3.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6 with 1,3,5,7,8 with 1 with 1,7 – $15.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6 with 2 with 2,3,5,8 with 1,7 – $12.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6 with 2 with 1 with 3,6,10,12 -$6.00

Total: $76.00

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: FL-MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Do Not Enter 8-1: Rivelli clever with FTS; Lures Rosario.. 2nd
Next Best: #7 Dreamingoflawrence 3-1: From creepy, notorious Calabrese barn.. 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Can’t Stop the Kid 5-1: Chased sharp Lynch winner; Now or never.. WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #2 Puntrooskie 6-1: Up to restricted MSW off OK open $50k debut.. 3rd

6th: OC/N1X, 4+, 5f-T (Rainbow P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Gentleman’s Code 5-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Didn’t Take It 5-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #10 Drunken Love 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Law Dog 20-1 4th

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

One of the more entertaining betting races of the day. 12-1 Zipso Facto — who’s kept good company, just missed with Davis two back and fits current course profile for rallyers — for me..

Best Value: #7 Zipso Facto 12-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #4 Starship Pegasus 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Sands of Humor 5-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Grenoble 8-1 3rd

8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Keep an eye on Zito’s talented Hurricane Ray who likely will need a start before showing best..

Best Value: #9 Buck Magic 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Vinceremos 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Four More 12-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Hurricane Ray 12-1 9th

9th: 15th Marshua’s River (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Fun group and no bad ideas with plethora of price options including Catalano’s Poetic Kid (10-1), Clement’s Naples Bay (6-1), Mott’s Floral Romance and Pletcher’s Viva Rafaela (15-1). Big question here is stretch out capability of Silverette (12-1) and how much pressure is applied from any number of candidates. Pace could get hot and set it up for closers or it could be moderate providing stalker types with best chance..

Best Value: #8 Poetic Kid 10-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Angelica Zapata 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Abaco 3-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Floral Romance 8-1 6th

10th: 35th Spectacular Bid, 3yo, 6f (DD)

Whole lot of pace involved here and it seems likely that someone can pick them up late. Enter Stan Gold and C. Zee. Appears poised to capitalize if he can improve off excellent effort breaking maiden versus 13 (!) others. Likely floats higher than 6-1 with Pletcherpalooza and a Ramsey runner involved..

Best Value: #4 C. Zee 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Trail Blaze 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Corfu 5-2 6th
Super Add: #7 Hollywood Talent 4-1 3rd

11th: MCLM/$35k, 3yo-F, 7.5f-T (Super Hi-5)

Keep an eye open for AE’s drawing in..

Most Likely: #5 Principessa Gina 5-2 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #7 Siyawe 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Ocean Gal 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Chuckle of the Day 6-1 8th

<$75 P5 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P5: 4,7 with 9 with 3,8 with 2,4 with 5 – $8.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P5: 8 with 9 with 3,8 with 2,4 with 5 – $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 3 with 3,8 with 2,4 with 5 – $4.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 9 with 1,12 with 2,4 with 5 – $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 9 with 3,8 with 3 with 5 – $2.00
6 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 9 with 3,8 with 2,4 with 7 $4.00

A’s with Two B’s

7 $0.50 pick P5: 8 with 3 with 3,8 with 2,4 with 5 – $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 8 with 9 with 1,12 with 2,4 with 5 – $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 8 with 9 with 3,8 with 3 with 5 – $1.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 8 with 9 with 3,8 with 2,4 with 7 – $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 3 with 1,12 with 2,4 with 5 – $4.00
12 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 3 with 3,8 with 3 with 5 – $2.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 3 with 3,8 with 2,4 with 7 – $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 9 with 1,12 with 3 with 5 – $2.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 9 with 1,12 with 2,4 with 7 – $4.00
16 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 9 with 3,8 with 3 with 7 – $2.00

A’s with One C

17 $0.50 pick P5: 2,3 with 9 with 3,8 with 2,4 with 5 – $4.00
18 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 8 with 3,8 with 2,4 with 5 – $4.00
19 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 9 with 4 with 2,4 with 5 – $2.00
20 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 9 with 3,8 with 7 with 5 – $2.00
21 $0.50 pick P5: 4,7 with 9 with 3,8 with 2,4 with 2 – $4.00

Total: $65.00

<$75 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 3,9 with 3,8,12 with 2,4 with 5 – $12.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 3,8,12 with 2,4 with 5 – $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,9 with 1 with 2,4 with 5 – $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,9 with 3,8,12 with 3 with 5 – $3.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,9 with 3,8,12 with 2,4 with 7 – $6.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 1 with 2,4 with 5 $1.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 3,8,12 with 3 with 5 – $1.50
8 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 3,8,12 with 2,4 with 7 – $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,9 with 1 with 3 with 5 – $1.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,9 with 1 with 2,4 with 7 – $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,9 with 3,8,12 with 3 with 7 – $3.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4 with 3,8,12 with 2,4 with 5 – $6.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,9 with 4,5,6,7 with 2,4 with 5 – $8.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 3,9 with 3,8,12 with 7 with 5 – $3.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 3,9 with 3,8,12 with 2,4 with 1,2,8 – $18.00

Total: $72.50

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 67th San Gabriel (G2), 4+, 9f-T (DD)

Interesting cast for this middle distance turf test and came in eager to try Drysdale’s Fire With Fire at a price (10-1). Enthusiasm was tempered overnight by unappealing workout report from Harrington, but does figure to sit advantageous stalking trip up close..

Most Likely: #9 Jeranimo 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #5 Fire With Fire 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Te Rapa 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Arctic North 8-1 3rd

All I can do this New Year’s Day is pull out all the clichés after yesterday’s improbable closing act. I say it’s ‘the greatest unscripted drama in the sporting world’ and ‘you can’t make it up’ and so forth and Tuesday’s year end Ozone Park Miracle confirmed it again. I was beyond delighted to construct a successful P6 negotiation that may not have been life-changing, but certainly was vocation-affirming.

In addition to feeling like the P4 and P6 hits made up for a handful of truly agonizing near-misses in 2013, the way the wagers scored via the elaborate multi-ticket approach (5 A’s, 1 C) justified the extra work involved in the process. As I’ve explained on radio for years, the Steve Crist A-B-C-X structure and multi ticket approach is the best way to attack, but for too long I tried to keep it simple ‘on paper’ in the selections with the ‘caveman’ tickets.

It is labor intensive to post each Ticketmaker play pre and post SCR’s and I always worried that there would be small mistakes along the way that botched things and wasted people’s money. Indeed, even with the successes Tuesday, there was a small post-SCR hiccup where I somehow omitted 2nd choice Petrocelli from the plays in favor of 3rd choice Star of New York. Luckily Tycoon Cat left no doubt about the anchor leg outcome.

Anyway, I’m pleased at least one person played along on the $152 P6 ($11,602) and many more on the 14-1 return $65 P4 ($905) and appreciate all the kind notes of encouragement and well wishes. It’s important to have hits like Tuesday’s if you play regularly and seriously because it not only keeps the balance sheet reasonable, but confirms confidence in your own opinion. And to those giving up the game blaming unbeatable and ‘overwhelming’ ambient conditions, returns that keep determined players profitable, or at least in the hunt, are the best response to braying quitters. You need luck certainly, but like anything else in life, the harder you work, the luckier you’ll get. (Ben Hogan paraphrased.)

Best wishes to all for a super 2014. Let’s encourage each other and make it great..

 

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Color Me Kitten 3-1
Best Value: #8 Blue Sixty Four 8-1
Next Best: #3 Blue Ballerina 5-2
Exotics Use: #4 Julesco 4-1

7th: NY-OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Giant Finish, away since Belmont, moved to the Sciacca barn this fall and has been working very well for return but may need tightener. Won ALW over strip 50 weeks ago but looks underlaid at 5-2..

Most Likely: #9 Go Get the Basil 2-1
Best Value: #4 Pure Attitude 5-1
Next Best: #3 Giant Finish 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Street Lord 8-1

8th: 93rd Interborough, F&M-4+, 6f (DD)

SCR’D down to 5 and all need to be covered somehow on your plays..

Most Likely: #6 Lion D N A 6-1
Best Value: #7 Miss Mischief 12-1
Next Best: #5 Delightful Quality 2-1

9th: NY-MSW, 4+, 5.5f

Deep, contentious group with Galluscio firster mixed in for added intrigue..

Most Likely: #7 Handy Stan 4-1
Best Value: #6 Shot to Win 10-1
Next Best: #5 Wood On the Fire 12-1
Exotics Use: #3 Horatio 5-2
Super Add: #8 Chasintheblues 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 6,8 with 4,9 with 2,7 with 7 – $8.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 4,9 with 2,7 with 7 – $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 4,9 with 4 with 7 – $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 4,9 with 2,7 with 3,5,6,8 – $16.00

A’s with Two B’s

5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 4,9 with 4 with 7 – $2.00
6 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 4,9 with 2,7 with 3,5,6,8 – $16.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 4,9 with 4 with 3,5,6,8 – $8.00

A’s with One C

8 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4,9 with 2,7 with 7 – $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 3,5 with 2,7 with 7 – $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 4,9 with 5,6 with 7 – $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 4,9 with 2,7 with 1,10 – $8.00

Total: $74.00

Good luck!
Steve

Bit of a maddening beat at Aqueduct Sunday when live to 2 horses for a P6 conso and 4 runners for sizeable P4’s thanks to the multi ticket approach. Though AE-draw in Silver Day (7-1) got by 6-1 Money in Motion and 37-1 Classic R&B to quash the P4 opportunity, the fact was driven home that the more elaborate ticket structuring puts you in best position for scores. A win by Classic R&B specifically was worth $3,619. If unaware, DRF Ticketmaker makes it simple to build your multi plays: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker

The sequence was stood on its’ ear early when implausible Go West Marie ($25) won the first leg and widespread single A.P. Cino failed in the second. A.P. Cino’s loss is another example of how the multi ticket approach keeps you in the hunt longer and more often as Photon was on 20% of the plays and helped get the investment in position for at least a conso. Despite the P4/P6 misses, the day was bouyed along by Modern Child who was nicely piloted by Rajiv Maragh for a $38 tote bump.

Only one horse was live for the P6 in the nightcap and the Chatterpaul winner wasn’t it, so a must-pay P6 opportunity results on this New Year’s Eve card. There’s also a similar forced distribution at Laurel in their P5. Hope everyone has had a good 2013 and enjoyed the excellent year of racing to which we were treated. From a balance sheet perspective, I lost several thousand this year but take solace in the fact that the Del Mar P6 DQ out of $23k+ turns this recap into a gloatfest. As Damon Runyon said, ‘all horseplayers die broke’, but as long as you’re north of the loam, you’re live in the next race…

Best of luck to everyone today and warm wishes for a 2014 filled with health, happiness, love and good fortune.

Steve

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$94k Must Pay P6 C/O starts here..

Not 100% convinced that favored Sun and Moon (2-1) is reliable and if it’s not her or returning Sustainable (5-2), this race could get messy fast. Aqua Regia gets first Lasix after losing any chance at start of debut. Tizarocket showed more speed in last and subsequently fired 3 straight bullets on 5 day intervals..

Most Likely: #2 Sun and Moon 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Sustainable 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #7 Aqua Regia 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Tizarocket 6-1 4th

5th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Unless a short rest regression saps Moments Notiz, he appears tough to beat (A). Consistent inner track performer Frazil, Linda Rice’s other player Quick Money and Island Sunset SCR’D on the barn switch to Jacobson are contenders (B’s). 10-1 Head Heart Hoof (Entered for 1/1/14) and 12-1 Exley merit a glance (C’s)..

Most Likely: #11 Moments Notiz 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #7 Quick Money 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Frazil 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Head Heart Hoof 10-1 7th

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Forged (half to MSW sprinter Comedero) and American Creed exit the 12/7 MDN heat that produced Groupthink & Uncle Sigh in a photo. Uncle Sigh then smoked in second start last week. Frost Jordan moves inside after wide-ish trip debut. Mark Twain has a terrific worktab for 5/2-0-1 at meet Leo O’Brien and was sold for nearly 3x the average price for a Noonmark yearling. All Over Me is out of $174k earner Leawood who was better on grass but an OK main track sprinter. Slippery Cannizzo won first out with River Dancer and Sol the Dancer earlier this year..

Most Likely: #1 Frost Jordan 3-1 WON ($3.90)
Next Best: #3 Forged 7-2 10th
Best Value: #8 Mark Twain 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 American Creed 4-1 5th

7th: NY-OC/N1X, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Sidearm, Geaux Mets SCR’D and Sandcat mixed it up to noses and necks 3 weeks ago and also crossed paths with impressive Samraat, (as did Eye Luv Lulu in his debut). Tricky element in this set is 5.5f distance, a configuration at which Double Gold, Sol the Freud and Sandcat all broke their maidens. Don’t be put off by Eye Luv Lulu winning v. MCLM/$50k as that was open company and a good equivalent to NY-MSW’s. Sing the Dream (20-1) may not be a win candidate, but could boost your tri or super. Very good race..

Best Value: #6 Eye Luv Lulu 7-2 WON ($16.00)
Next Best: #3 Sol the Freud 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Sandcat 4-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Sing the Dream 20-1 5th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Fortify 2-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Snake Pit 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Cease 6-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Hackleton 30-1 7th

9th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y

Most Likely: #5 Tycoon Cat 5-1 WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #2 Petrocelli 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Star of New York 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Here Comes Tommy 7-2 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 – $8.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $124.00 (5OF6)

A’s with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 – $8.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 5 – $8.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 5 – $8.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $124.00 (5OF6)
5 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 2 – $8.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 5 – $8.00
7 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 5 – $8.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 2 – $8.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 5 with 5 – $8.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 2 – $8.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 2 – $8.00

A’s with One C

12 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 – $8.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 4 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 – $8.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 7,8 with 6 with 7 with 5 – $8.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 – $16.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 3,9 with 5 – $16.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $11,354.00 (6OF6)
17 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 7 – $8.00

Total: $152.00

<$100 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 – $8.00

A’s with One B

2 $1.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 – $6.00
3 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 – $6.00
4 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 5 – $12.00 $1.50 Pick 4 (1/6/9/5) Paid $915.00
5 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 7 – $6.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 – $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 5 – $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 7 with 7 – $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 5,9 with 5 – $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 7 – $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 7 – $4.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 10 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 – $1.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 1,4 with 7 with 5 – $2.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 3,10 with 5 – $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 2 – $2.00

Total: $65.00

Parade of $17-$25 winners at Aqueduct crushed my P4 interests and tripped a $33k carryover into Sunday. Central to the price players was Dominick Schettino, who last saddled a winner on October 27, but got firster Molly the Freud and previously mired Fee and Sugar across for diplomas.

Had all the mundane victors at Santa Anita but stupidly categorized Unbridled’s Song as a 3rd choice “B” in the P4 structures which cost a breakeven return of the $1.50 main play. One nice result at Arcadia was 10-1 ML ‘Best Value’ idea Cherubim who crushed a good MSW group at nearly 21-1. Cherubim was interesting because of strong workout notes from Andy Harrington in his National Turf report:

SA 12/15: Would have called this a breeze under wraps while going the last 4f in 47.4. May like the dirt a lot more than now departed Cushion surface. — Grade: B

SA 12/9: Much the best over Son Of Malibu looking to have nice looking power while under wraps, last 3f in 36.1. Sure looks better than debut. — Grade: B

For $10, you should not play SoCal tracks without Harrington’s insights. Hope everyone did well Saturday… This AQU sequence is completely impossible, but I’ve capped it and here are the thoughts.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$33k P6 C/O starts here..

Reasonable opening to skein with dropping faves Sals Wonderfulgirl and Believeinfaith standing out. There are lurkers though in the form of Julie Napp SCR’D (Schettino, dropping down & cutting back) and Lady Luciano (Cannizzo Frost Giant miss that improved in first try on the inner track). The fun horse here is Lauded (20-1) from Henning who sports the pentafecta of karma moves by dropping down, cutting back, going turf to dirt, adding blinkers and tabbing bug!

Most Likely: #8 Sals Wonderfulgirl 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Believeinfaith 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Lady Luciano 6-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Lauded 20-1 8th

5th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f (F/S, P3, DD)

If Penn National invader A.P. Cino runs to his paper form, he appears dominant. Don’t be put off by Kaylia Albright who is a 15% jock that won her 100th race of the year Saturday. She has banked close to $2,000,000 in 2013, her 2nd year in the irons..

Most Likely: #5 A. P. Cino 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Sacred Ground 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Photon 5-2 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Metaurus 30-1 6th

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 M P Ruckus 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #1a El Oh El 1-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #4 Stealth Steed 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Two More Jacs 15-1 7th

7th: NY-OC/C, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

One of the races that makes this a very difficult P6 to manage. Entire field is within a couple lengths of each other on typical form..

Most Likely: #6 Rebellious Chic 7-2 8th
Next Best: #2 Rodinia 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #1 SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Concealed 6-1 2nd

8th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Equally impossible group..

Most Likely: #6 Tiz Chris 9-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Modern Child 20-1 WON ($38.20)
Next Best: #2 Mighty Ian 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1e Jacobson entry 5-2 2nd/6th
Super Add: #9 Finn’s Quest 7-2 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 1m-70y

Expect #1 Hailstone to SCR having run Friday.. Not that his coming out makes this any easier..

Most Likely: #5 Festive Spirit 9-2 9th
Next Best: #3 Mr. Espresso 8-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Classic R and B 30-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Money in Motion 6-1 4th

<$300 P6 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 3,5 – $8.00

A’s with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 4 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 3,5 – $8.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 1,9 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 3,5 – $16.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 6 with 6 with 3,5 – $8.00
5 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 2,4 with 3,5 – $16.00
6 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 4,6 – $8.00

A’s with Two B’s

7 $2.00 pick P6: 4 with 1,9 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 3,5 – $16.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 4 with 5 with 1,12 with 6 with 6 with 3,5 – $8.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 4 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 2,4 with 3,5 – $16.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 4 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 4,6 – $8.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 1,9 with 1,12 with 6 with 6 with 3,5 – $16.00
12 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 1,9 with 1,12 with 2 with 2,4 with 3,5 – $32.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 1,9 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 4,6 – $16.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 6 with 2,4 with 3,5 – $16.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 6 with 6 with 4,6 – $8.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 2,4 with 4,6 – $16.00

A’s with One C

17 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7,9 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 3,5 – $24.00
18 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 1,4,5 with 6 with 3,5 – $24.00
19 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 1,9 with 3,5 – $16.00
20 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 2,7 – $8.00

Total: $288.00

<$100 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 3,5 – $8.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 3,5 – $8.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 1,4 with 4,6 with 3,5 – $8.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 1,2 with 3,5 – $8.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 6 – $4.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,4 with 4,6 with 3,5 – $8.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 2,6 with 1,2 with 3,5 – $8.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 6 – $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 1,4 with 1,2 with 3,5 – $8.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 1,4 with 4,6 with 6 – $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 1,2 with 6 – $4.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 3,5 – $8.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 3,5,9 with 4,6 with 3,5 – $12.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 9 with 3,5 – $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 4 – $4.00

Total: $100.00

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 It’s Easy 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Shades of Indigo 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Willow U 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Flying K C 3-1 6th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tenango 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Private Tale 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Hannibel Lechter 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Haverhill 6-1 6th

8th: 35th Alex M. Robb-NY, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Comandante 6-1 WON ($5.10)
Next Best: #1 Awesome Vision 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Zetterholm 15-1 4th

9th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #6 Tiny Predicament 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Luxury Appeal 20-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Silent Thunder 3-1 8th
Exotics User: #2 Real Estate 15-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $6.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 6 with 6 ($12.00)

A’s with One B

2 $3.00 P4: 2 with 1,2 with 6 with 6 ($6.00)
3 $3.00 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 6 with 6 ($6.00)
4 $3.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 1 with 6 ($6.00)
5 $3.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 6 with 1,5 ($12.00)

A’s with Two B’s

6 $1.00 P4: 2 with 5,6 with 6 with 6 ($2.00)
7 $1.00 P4: 2 with 1,2 with 1 with 6 ($2.00)
8 $1.00 P4: 2 with 1,2 with 6 with 1,5 ($4.00)
9 $1.00 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 1 with 6 ($2.00)
10 $1.00 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 6 with 1,5 ($4.00)
11 $1.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 1 with 1,5 ($4.00)

A’s with One C

12 $1.00 P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 6 with 6 ($4.00)
13 $1.00 P4: 1 with 3,8,9 with 6 with 6 ($3.00)
14 $1.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 4 with 6 ($2.00)
15 $1.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 6 with 2,12 ($4.00)

Total: $73.00

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 19th Eddie Logan, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

This has the makings of a superb race with a lot of players owning real potential. Certainly is an encouraging cast when thinking about 3yo boys on the lawn in the coming year..

Most Likely: #3 Craftsman 2-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Enterprising 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Noble Metal 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Royal Banker 3-1 2nd

5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3)

Quite an assembly here with Baffert sending babies out of Indian Blessing (Indian Smoke) and Xtra Heat (Pimpernel), Peter Miller unveiling a Street Cry half brother to Invasor (Garen) and Proctor sending firster Chelios, a Distorted Humor half brother of Old Time Hockey..

Most Likely: #8 Pimpernel 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Garen 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Cherubim 10-1 WON ($43.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Indian Smoke 3-1 6th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Texas Ryano may not be ready here today, but keep an eye on this Curlin colt that is out of highly productive Blending Element. Half to SW’s Tiz a Blend, Tiz Elemental, Excessive Blend Holladay Road, et al..

Best Value: #2 Big Medicine Man 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Ontology 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Number Five 4-1 4th
Super Add: #8 On Draft 10-1 6th

NOTE: Will add #4 Miraglo and #6 Kozani to back-up P4 plays..

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Seeking the Sherif 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #5 Tribal Smoke 4-1 DH-3rd
Next Best: #1 Mary Helen’s Storm 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 On My Honor 6-1 6th

8th: 10th Daytona (G3), 3+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Chips All In 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Ain’t No Other 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Unbridled’s Note 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Gallant Son 7-2 3rd

9th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Exotic Behavior 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #7 Red Barris 9-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Poppy Cloche 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Miraculous Mindy 6-1 12th-
Super/Hi-5: #10 She’s Flush 6-1 3rd

<$100 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 2,8 with 7,11 ($24.00)

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 1,4 with 2,8 with 7,11 ($8.00)
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 4 with 7,11 ($4.00) $0.50 Pick 4 (1,5/8/3,4/11,13) Paid $30.30
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 2,8 with 5 ($4.00)

A’s with Two B’s

5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 1,4 with 4 with 7,11 ($4.00)
6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 1,4 with 2,8 with 5 ($4.00)
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 4 with 5 ($2.00)

A’s with One C

8 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6,8,9 with 5,8 with 2,8 with 7,11 ($16.00)
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 3,10 with 2,8 with 7,11 ($8.00)
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 6 with 7,11 ($4.00)
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 2,8 with 3,8,10,12 ($16.00)

Total: $94.00