BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$93k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #1a Lady’s Lunar Luck 5-2
Best Value: #4 Avie’s Halo 5-1
Next Best: #3 First Whippoorwill 2-1
Exotics Use: #7 Simple Love 4-1

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Bounty Pink and Losa Noodles take notable drops; Ginny’s Grey comes back off re-claim by dangerous Danny Gargan; Matching Skies will wire if left alone early..

Most Likely: #1 Matching Skies 2-1
Next Best: #5 Ginny’s Grey 3-1
Best Value: #3 Bounty Pink 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Lotsa Noodles 4-1

6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Ack Feisty 7-2
Best Value: #8 Plundering 8-1
Next Best: #4 Memories of Peter 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 Apollo Eleven 3-1

7th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Best Man 3-1
Best Value: #1 Gentrify 6-1
Next Best: #3 Erik the Red 2-1
Exotics Use: #4 In Speight Ofitall 8-1

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Barrel of Love 7-5
Next Best: #7 Goodtolook 5-1
Best Value: #3 Majestic Raffy 12-1
Exotics Use: #8 Lawyer Jim 8-1

9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Best Value: #7 Celtic Sunrise 6-1
Next Best: #6 Hope’s Roar 5-1
Exotics Use: #8 Isthatallthereis 6-1
Super Add: #3 Outtacypresshills 8-1

P6 Grid:

4: 1 (A), 3-4 (B), 7 (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
6: 6 (A), – (B), 4-8 (C)
7: 2 (A), 1-3 (B), 4-5 (C)
8: 9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 7 (A), 6-8 (B), 2-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x3x1x3 = 108 x $2 = $216
Full (A/B/C): $132

P4 Grid:

6: 6 (A), 4-8 (B), 1-3 (C)
7: 1-2 (A), 3-4-5 (B), – (C)
8: 9 (A), 7 (B), 1-2-3-6-8 (C)
9: 6-7 (A), 2-3-8 (B), 1-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
Full (A/B/C): $58.50 (With $1 All ‘A’ Play)

Good luck!
Steve

 

 

Idyllic afternoon at Old Hilltop Friday as fast-paced afternoon flew by. Several performances stood out, none more so than that of Ben’s Cat who won the the Jim McKay for a 4th time. Javier Castellano brilliantly stole the Black-Eyed Susan on Keen Pauline, an appropriate thievery in the event considering one had been stolen from Dale Romans 9 years ago. In 2006, Romans saw Smart N Party ridiculously taken down in the Susan as stewards penalized Norberto Arroyo in favor of Ramon Dominguez. Thoroughly dominant efforts were turned in by Commissioner in the Special, Stopchargingmaria in DuPont and Miss Temple City in the Hilltop.

Cashed plenty of modest tickets Friday, but Keen Pauline ($32.80), Irish Jasper ($12.00) and Seventh Son ($27.80) proved elusive and interrupted multis. Hope everyone did OK. Main track was very fair Friday with the inside seemingly earning a slight plus. With three more turf sprints scheduled today (1st, 6th, 11th), note that yesterday’s winners came from right up on the lead no matter how fast they went early. Preakness weather starts well before a possibility of thunderstorms (40%) as the afternoon progresses.

PIMLICO RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Juveniles to start day including potential 2nd start of Bodemeister half Finnegan..

Most Likely: #3 La Nina 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1a (POE) Shoot Craps SCR
Next Best: #8 Finnegan 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Sunshine Life 5-1 3rd

2nd: S/HCP, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Pops Racing entry 5-1 3rd/6th
Next Best: #9 Take Down Two 6-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Glich 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Fish Whistler 8-1 WON ($9.60)

3rd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Insane group where it looks like 8 of the 12 can win..

Best Value: #4 Svindahl 12-1 DNF-Clipped heels, fell
Next Best: #10 Chiropractor 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #13 Steel Sky 5-1 5th
Super Add: #3 My Team 10-1 WON ($27.20)

4th: James W. Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Force the Pass 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Syntax 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 First Spark 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 All I Karabout 5-1 3rd

5th: Maryland Sprint H. (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Sandbar 9-2 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #1 Jack’s in the Deck 12-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Coup de Grace 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Happy My Way 5-2 3rd

P4 Grid:

2: 1-9 (A), 4-5 (B), – (C)
3: 4-10 (A), 3-11-13 (B), 2-8-14 (C)
4: 2 (A), 7 (B), 1-3-8 (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-6-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
Full (A/B/C): $78

6th: ALW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Hooligan is a bad favorite. She needs to have improved to compete since last being seen as a 2yo. Possible but certain to be overbet in wacky field that has plenty of pace..

Best Value: #13 Smart N Smokin 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Adding Alpha 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Southern Peach 15-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Hooligan 4-1 WON ($6.00)

7th: Sir Barton, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Donworth 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Fame and Power 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #9 Conquest Bigluck E 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Bold Conquest 9-2 3rd

8th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Loves Last Chance 3-1 12th
Best Value: #7 Arrive 9-2 11th
Next Best: #12 Other Cheek 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Causeworthy 10-1 7th

9th: Gallorette H. (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

As good an edition of this as I can recall with fancy Euros bursting on the scene and layoff runners complicating decision-making..

Best Value: #1 Bocaiuva 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Mango Diva 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Hard Not to Like SCR
Super Add: #3 Emotional Kitten 10-1 2nd

10th: Chick Lang, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Gimme Da Lute 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Holy Boss 6-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #5 Victory Is Sweet 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Senor Grits 8-1 6th

11th: Very One, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Ageless 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #9 Aquinnah 12-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #4 Joya Real 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Paddle Board 12-1 10th

12th: Dixie (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Like the Gallorette, a deep and compelling edition..

Best Value: #10 Manchurian High 15-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Long On Value 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #15 Chamois 8-1 13th
Super Add: #4 Aripeka 8-1 6th

13th: Preakness (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD)

Second leg of the Crown seems to boil down to whether the rail draw compromises heavy (3-5 overnight) favorite American Pharoah. As has been extensively discussed, if Espinoza goes forward from the bell, the Derby winner will faces waves of pressure throughout the race. Dortmund, Mr. Z, Bodhisattva, Divining Rod and Firing Line will all want to be well-placed into the turn. I remain unconvinced that Firing Line has any advantage from the widest berth and all but Danzig Moon and Tale of Verve hustling inside him down the stretch the first time. If the wagering holds and Dortmund (8-1 overnight) and Danzig Moon (15-1) can impact the result, betting the feature can be an approachable proposition even if American Pharoah wins. The key is keeping one of the two favorites out of the exotics. Bottom line is that American Pharoah comes in feeling like the kind of Derby winner that is even better in this event than he was 2 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #1 American Pharoah 4-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #4 Danzig Moon 15-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Dortmund 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Firing Line 4-1 7th

P5 Grid:

9: 1 (A), 7/SCR-10 (B), 3-6-8-9 (C)
10: 7-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
11: 2 (A), 4-9 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
12: 10-12 (A), 4-15 (B), 1-9-11 (C)
13: 1 (A), – (B), 2-4-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $68

P4 Grid:

10: 7-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
11: 2-9 (A), 4 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
12: 10-12 (A), 4-15 (B), 1-9-11 (C)
13: 1 (A), 2-4 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $72

14th: ALW, 3+, 8.5f

Most Likely: #1 Jigsaw 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Segovia 5-1
Next Best: #2 Old Upstart 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Jack O Liam 5-2 3rd

PIMLICO RACE COURSE RESULTS 5/15

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Dunne Hall 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Pool Winner 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #8 Spring Equinox 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Victor Newman 8-1 9th

2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Lasamanamama 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Don’tforgetaboutme 8-5 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Cayman Croc 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Super Add: #7 Samantha Nicole 3-1 3rd

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Conscience (6-5) the one to beat but plenty of turf sib strength to encourage prospects for Dark Voyager (15-1) moving to grass..

#14/AE Super Spender dangerous if drawing in..

Most Likely: #12 Conscience 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Dark Voyager 15-1 6th
Next Best: #8 T Sizzle 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Mabroom 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Cap’n Raymond 20-1 7th

4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Clockstrucktwelve 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Perigee Moon Slide 8-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Tiz Emily and Jill 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Paper Dollie 6-1 5th

5th: 43rd Hilltop, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

SCR #7 Gypsy Judy (Black Eyed Susan)..

Most Likely: #10 Miss Temple City 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #5 C’Est Moi 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Ayaady 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 All in Fun 6-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

2: 5-8 (A), 7-9 (B), 2 (C)
3: 7-12 (A), 8 (B), 1-3 (C)
4: 2-9 (A), 1-7 (B), 6 (C)
5: 10 (A), 1-5 (B), 4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $70 (With $1 All ‘A’ play)

$0.50 Pick-4 (9/6,12,14,15,16/1,5/2,7,9,10) Paid $64.55

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (.10 Rainbow P6, P3, DD)

VERY difficult group..

Most Likely: #4 American Progress 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Admirals War Chest 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Chief of Command 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Regal Soldier 4-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Silverville 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Mobilize 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Charm City Girl 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #11 Cavort 15-1 3rd

8th: 30th Miss Preakness (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Too much speed involved for this not to collapse at least a bit..

Monumental SCR’s of Miss Ella & Enchanting Lady..

Most Likely: #6 Divine Dawn 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Windy Forecast 10-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Streamsong 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Huasca 8-1 2nd

9th: 10th Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Amerlia’s Wild Ride 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Golden Emperor 12-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Ben’s Cat 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Bold Thunder 7-2 2nd

10th: 22nd Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Nothing wrong with ’14 Black-Eyed Susan winner Stopchargingmaria’s 4yo debut 2nd in the 7f Madison and love the 4 half miles since that return..

Most Likely: #2 Stopchargingmaria 9-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #10 Yahilwa 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Perique 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Joint Return 15-1 3rd

11th: 91st Black-Eyed Susan (G2), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, Susan-Preakness Double)

Fun assembly of fillies..

Most Likely: #1 Danessa Deluxe 9-2 4th
Next Best: #8 Luminance 9-5 5th
Best Value: #6 Sweetgrass 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Include Betty 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Ahh Chocolate 6-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

7: 10 (A), 6-8 (B), 11 (C)
8: 6 (A), 2-8-11 (B), 4-9-10 (C)
9: 4-9 (A), 3-7 (B), 8 (C)
10: 2 (A), – (B), 4-9-10 (C)
11: 1-8 (A), 5-6 (B), 2-3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x1x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
Full (A/B/C): $70

P4 Grid:

8: 2-6 (A), 8-11 (B), 4-9-10 (C)
9: 4-9 (A), 3-7 (B), 8 (C)
10: 2 (A), 9-10 (B), 4 (C)
11: 1-8 (A), 5-6 (B), 3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
Full (A/B/C): $78

Susan-Preakness Double:

SUSAN: 1-8
PRKNS: 1

2×1 = 2 x $20 = $40

SUSAN: 5-6
PRKNS: 1

2×1 = 2 x $10 = $20

SUSAN: 1-5-6-8
PRKNS: 2-4-8

4×3 = $12

12th: 22nd Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Lady Sabella 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 She’s Ordained 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Frivolity SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Galiana 8-1 WON ($12.40)

13th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Thisdanseistaken 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #10 Girl From Glan 8-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Previous Honor 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Conspirer 6-1 2nd

14th: 45th Pimlico Special (G3), 3+, 9.5f

Best Value: #5 Page McKenney 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Encryption 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Commissioner 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Super Add: #8 Top Billing 12-1 4th

P4 Grid:

11: 1-8 (A), 5-6 (B), 2-3-4 (C)
12: 5 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-4-7 (C)
13: 6-10 (A), 2-12 (B), 7-9 (C)
14: 5 (A), 3-10 (B), 2-7-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $60 (With $1 All ‘A’ play)

 

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$118k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Adrift 7-2
Next Best: #1 Noon Sermon 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Kathy’s Reward 8-5
Super Add: #5 Enduring Touch 12-1

5th: NY-OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 R Y Squadron 8-5
Best Value: #8 Jules N Rome 5-1
Next Best: #1 Skinner Box 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Bourbonstatofmind 8-1

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Gasparilla Inn 2-1
Best Value: #6 Now Power 15-1
Next Best: #8 Touch the Moon 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 I’ll Take Charge 4-1
Super Add: #3 Folk Song 10-1

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Golden Gem 2-1
Best Value: #6 On a Snowy Evening 10-1
Next Best: #4 Liberty Island 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Camille’s Storm 7-2

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 English Minister 5-1
Best Value: #8 Kiss of Thunder 20-1
Next Best: #5 Request 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 Where’s Danny 20-1

9th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 9f-IT

Best Value: #4 Pioneer of Wifi 6-1
Next Best: #10 Foxhall Drive 3-1
Exotics Use: #2 My Friend Keith 5-2
Super Add: #1 Fortunate Sky 12-1

P6 Grid:

4: 1-2 (A), 4 (B), 5 (C)
5: 6 (A), 8 (B), 1-3 (C)
6: 1 (A), 6-8 (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 1 (A), 6 (B), 2-4 (C)
8: 1 (A), 5-8 (B), 3-6-7-9 (C)
9: 4 (A), 10 (B), 1-2-7 (C)

P4 Grid:

6: 1 (A), 6-8 (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 1 (A), 6 (B), 2-4 (C)
8: 1-8 (A), 5-6-7-9 (B), 3-4 (C)
9: 4 (A), 2-10 (B), 1-7 (C)

Good luck!
Steve

 Oaks Friday ended magically with veteran journeyman Kerwin ‘Boo Boo’ Clark capping his career by crushing the feature on Lovely Maria. Larry Jones and Brereton Jones netting their 3rd blanket of lilies helped right the wagering ship as well going into Derby Day after some early frustrations. Ran out of time to further elaborate on today’s action, but if you had opportunities to tune in to ATR for the lead up to today, you should be prepared. Has been a typically wonderful fortnight in the Ville and I hope everyone enjoyed the coverage. It should be a great Derby. Will do my best to keep you up to speed as the day progresses.

CHURCHILL DOWNS — KENTUCKY DERBY DAY

POST EARLY SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Paganol 12-1 WON ($30.20)
Next Best: #1 Indycott 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Evan’s Calling 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Banner Bill 5-1 9th

2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Yockey’s Warrior 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Lewys Vaporizer 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Catalano entry 9-2 6th/
Exotics Use: #5 Defondo 9-2 9th

3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Half this field looks eligible for honors and the other half for pay slots. All combos should pay well so take shot..

Best Value: #5 Gandono 15-1 9th
Next Best: #4 West Village 7-2 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Reach for a Kitten 3-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Thatcher Street 6-1 2nd

4th: OC/C, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 SCR
Next Best: #6 Cat Burglar 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 SCR
Exotics Use: #11 Bradester 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1e SCR

5th: Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (Lucky 7, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Lord Nelson 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Competitive Edge 6-5 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Gimme Da Lute 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Hillbilly Royalty 8-1 6th

P4 Grid:

2: 3-8 (A), 1 (B), 5-7-9 (C)
3: 4-5 (A), 2-9 (B), – (C)
4: 4/SCR-6 (A), 1/SCR–10/SCR-11 (B), 2 (C)
5: 5 (A), 2-6 (B), 4 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $75 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90

6th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Wildly competitive. Demand pricing..

Most Likely: #6 A Lot 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Divisidero 20-1 WON ($19.20)
Next Best: #8 Conquest Typhoon 5-1 11th
Exotics Use: #9 Firespike 15-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Another Lemon Drop 20-1 8th

7th: Humana Disataff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Dame Dorothy 9-2 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #8 Judy the Beauty 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Sweet Reason 5-1 4th
Super Add: #5 You Bought Her 12-1 7th

P4 Grid:

4: 4/SCR-6 (A), 1/SCR–10/SCR-11 (B), 2 (C)
5: 5 (A), 2-6 (B), 4 (C)
6: 6-11 (A), 5-8-9 (B), 1-3-4-7-14 (C)
7: 3 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)

Full (A/B/C): $61.50 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 5x3x5x3 = 125 x .50 = $112.50

8th: CD Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Coffee Clique 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Tepin 15-1 WON ($20.20)
Next Best: #8 Sandiva 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Lady Lara 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Personal Diary 8-1 7th

9th: Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bayern 1-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Private Zone 2-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #5 Pants On Fire 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 C. Zee 15-1 5th

10th: Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Finnegan’s Wake 9-2 WON ($9.40)
Best Value: #3 Umgiyo 30-1
Next Best: #8 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Jack Milton 5-1 2nd (Elevated from 3rd)
Super Add: #2 Sky Captain 15-1 4th (DQ’d from 2nd)

11th: 141st Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

Ready for the most anticipated 2 minutes in the game! As always, I’ll stick with my Xpressbet Wagering Guide base selections (Dortmund, Tencendur, Materiality, Mubtaahij) but will add the imperative Firing Line and American Pharoah to the mix. Bolo, Danzig Moon and Upstart are further exotics candidates with real win potential. Everything we’ve said these 2 weeks in Louisville feels true: this has all the makings of one of the best Derbys most of us have had a chance to see. Best of luck however you play it!

Most Likely: #8 Dortmund 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Firing Line 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #18 American Pharoah 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #4 Tendencur 30-1 17th
Super Add: #3 Materiality 12-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Mubtaahij 20-1 9th

P4 Grid:

8: 3-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 1-11 (C)
9: 2 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), 2-7-8-10 (B), 9-11-12 (C)
11: 8 (A), 10-18 (B), 3-4-6-9-19 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $96.00 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 4x4x6x3 = 288 x .50 = $144.00

$0.50 P4 (3-4-5-18) Paid $527.45

$60 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3:

Oaks: 6-7-8-13-14
Woodford: 3-5-7-8
Derby: 8-10-18

5x4x3 = $60 $1 P3 (7-5-18) Paid $169.60

$75 Oaks-Derby Double:

Oaks: 7-13
Derby: 8-10-18

2×3 = 6 x $6 = $36 $1 DBL (7-18) Paid $27.30 x 6 = $163.80

Oaks: 7-13
Derby: 4-5-6-7-9-19

2×6 = $12

12th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Guapo Man 5-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Flash Trading 10-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Raagheb 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Turn to Include 12-1 8th

13th: MSW, 3+, 7f

Most Likely: #6 Bent On Bourbon 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #9 Coaches Challenge 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Sailmaker 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Wild and Unbridled 12-1 DNF-Eased

P4 Grid:

10: 3-5 (A), 2-7-8-10 (B), 9-11-12 (C)
11: 8 (A), 10-18 (B), 3-4-6-9-19 (C)
12: 4 (A), 1-6 (B), 2-5-10 (C)
13: 6-9 (A), 10 (B), 4 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $67.00 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 6x3x3x3 = 162 x .50 = $81.00