Triple Crown try hangs in Preakness balance
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
Idyllic afternoon at Old Hilltop Friday as fast-paced afternoon flew by. Several performances stood out, none more so than that of Ben’s Cat who won the the Jim McKay for a 4th time. Javier Castellano brilliantly stole the Black-Eyed Susan on Keen Pauline, an appropriate thievery in the event considering one had been stolen from Dale Romans 9 years ago. In 2006, Romans saw Smart N Party ridiculously taken down in the Susan as stewards penalized Norberto Arroyo in favor of Ramon Dominguez. Thoroughly dominant efforts were turned in by Commissioner in the Special, Stopchargingmaria in DuPont and Miss Temple City in the Hilltop.
Cashed plenty of modest tickets Friday, but Keen Pauline ($32.80), Irish Jasper ($12.00) and Seventh Son ($27.80) proved elusive and interrupted multis. Hope everyone did OK. Main track was very fair Friday with the inside seemingly earning a slight plus. With three more turf sprints scheduled today (1st, 6th, 11th), note that yesterday’s winners came from right up on the lead no matter how fast they went early. Preakness weather starts well before a possibility of thunderstorms (40%) as the afternoon progresses.
PIMLICO RACE COURSE
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 2yo, 5f-T (P3, DD)
Juveniles to start day including potential 2nd start of Bodemeister half Finnegan..
Most Likely: #3 La Nina 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1a (POE) Shoot Craps SCR
Next Best: #8 Finnegan 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Sunshine Life 5-1 3rd
2nd: S/HCP, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1e Pops Racing entry 5-1 3rd/6th
Next Best: #9 Take Down Two 6-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Glich 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Fish Whistler 8-1 WON ($9.60)
3rd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Insane group where it looks like 8 of the 12 can win..
Best Value: #4 Svindahl 12-1 DNF-Clipped heels, fell
Next Best: #10 Chiropractor 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #13 Steel Sky 5-1 5th
Super Add: #3 My Team 10-1 WON ($27.20)
4th: James W. Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Force the Pass 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Syntax 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 First Spark 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 All I Karabout 5-1 3rd
5th: Maryland Sprint H. (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Sandbar 9-2 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #1 Jack’s in the Deck 12-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Coup de Grace 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Happy My Way 5-2 3rd
P4 Grid:
2: 1-9 (A), 4-5 (B), – (C)
3: 4-10 (A), 3-11-13 (B), 2-8-14 (C)
4: 2 (A), 7 (B), 1-3-8 (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-6-7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x5x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
Full (A/B/C): $78
6th: ALW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)
Hooligan is a bad favorite. She needs to have improved to compete since last being seen as a 2yo. Possible but certain to be overbet in wacky field that has plenty of pace..
Best Value: #13 Smart N Smokin 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Adding Alpha 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Southern Peach 15-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Hooligan 4-1 WON ($6.00)
7th: Sir Barton, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Donworth 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Fame and Power 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #9 Conquest Bigluck E 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Bold Conquest 9-2 3rd
8th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #10 Loves Last Chance 3-1 12th
Best Value: #7 Arrive 9-2 11th
Next Best: #12 Other Cheek 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Causeworthy 10-1 7th
9th: Gallorette H. (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)
As good an edition of this as I can recall with fancy Euros bursting on the scene and layoff runners complicating decision-making..
Best Value: #1 Bocaiuva 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Mango Diva 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Hard Not to Like SCR
Super Add: #3 Emotional Kitten 10-1 2nd
10th: Chick Lang, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Gimme Da Lute 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Holy Boss 6-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #5 Victory Is Sweet 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Senor Grits 8-1 6th
11th: Very One, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Ageless 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #9 Aquinnah 12-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #4 Joya Real 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Paddle Board 12-1 10th
12th: Dixie (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Like the Gallorette, a deep and compelling edition..
Best Value: #10 Manchurian High 15-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Long On Value 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #15 Chamois 8-1 13th
Super Add: #4 Aripeka 8-1 6th
13th: Preakness (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD)
Second leg of the Crown seems to boil down to whether the rail draw compromises heavy (3-5 overnight) favorite American Pharoah. As has been extensively discussed, if Espinoza goes forward from the bell, the Derby winner will faces waves of pressure throughout the race. Dortmund, Mr. Z, Bodhisattva, Divining Rod and Firing Line will all want to be well-placed into the turn. I remain unconvinced that Firing Line has any advantage from the widest berth and all but Danzig Moon and Tale of Verve hustling inside him down the stretch the first time. If the wagering holds and Dortmund (8-1 overnight) and Danzig Moon (15-1) can impact the result, betting the feature can be an approachable proposition even if American Pharoah wins. The key is keeping one of the two favorites out of the exotics. Bottom line is that American Pharoah comes in feeling like the kind of Derby winner that is even better in this event than he was 2 weeks ago..
Most Likely: #1 American Pharoah 4-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #4 Danzig Moon 15-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Dortmund 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Firing Line 4-1 7th
P5 Grid:
9: 1 (A), 7/SCR-10 (B), 3-6-8-9 (C)
10: 7-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
11: 2 (A), 4-9 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
12: 10-12 (A), 4-15 (B), 1-9-11 (C)
13: 1 (A), – (B), 2-4-7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $68
P4 Grid:
10: 7-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
11: 2-9 (A), 4 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
12: 10-12 (A), 4-15 (B), 1-9-11 (C)
13: 1 (A), 2-4 (B), 7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $72
14th: ALW, 3+, 8.5f
Most Likely: #1 Jigsaw 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Segovia 5-1
Next Best: #2 Old Upstart 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Jack O Liam 5-2 3rd