Offshore Belmont Odds and props

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Considering that CC is 3-5 on the morning line, you would think that the offshore books would be lowering their odds on him, but they're not. He's actually going up in odds at some of the places. He is 6-5 at 5Dimes right now and that is a legitimate 6-5. There is no action if he doesn't run. There are two possibilities of why they have him at 6-5. The first possibility is that they are very confident that he's not going to win. The second possibility is that they're simply not getting much action on him. In addition, I would expect him to be slightly higher odds at a good offshore book because the good books don't mind giving out a line that only gives them a 5-10% edge. They don't need a 16% edge to make a good profit. In most cases they will make plenty of money with a 5-10% take.

I don't think CC will go off at 3-5. I think that morning-line is a little low. I think he will be either 4-5 or even money.

Right. The difference in vig only accounts for part of the difference. If you take the figs from "best odds" I posted yesterday, and turn it into a 15% takeout line, it only changes Chrome from 1.1-1 to 1.0-1.

Chrome is currently 1-1 at Bookmaker and TheGreek, and 1.15-1 at 5Dimes. One thing that may inflate 5Dimes' valuation is that they know they will be paying 110% of the win payoff if someone plays Chrome in the site's racebook (as opposed to taking Chrome at a fixed price "future". (they offer the extra 10% as an ongoing promotion.) So if Chrome goes off at 1-1, 5Dimes will be paying those bettors more than 1.1-1 anyway.

I think your "4-5 or even money" is right on target.

--Dunbar