3/27-29 (CD): KY Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

[Rudeboyelvis]

If I were to take any of these, I's say the greatest value is Constitution at 30-1.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

If I were to take any of these, I's say the greatest value is Constitution at 30-1.

Ugh. He has not impressed me at all.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Ugh. He has not impressed me at all.

Thank You

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Thank You

What has he done that we don't see every year from one or more Pletcher horse at Gulfstream? One could argue he was not best or even second best in his allowance score.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

What has he done that we don't see every year from one or more Pletcher horse at Gulfstream? One could argue he was not best or even second best in his allowance score.

You may want to watch it again. Or not. I couldn't care any less. He draws perfectly in Post 4 - Pletcher's comments for Saturday:

He's doing very well,” Pletcher said. “We're very pleased with the way he's coming into the race. I'm happy with post 4. We're outside of Wildcat Red and inside of General a Rod, so we're looking for a forwardly placed position. We'll play it off the break and let Javier (Castellano) make that decision as things unfold.”

If he were obvious he wouldn't be 30-1, Joe. And you won't get near that afterward - that's why I said it was the best value play in the field.

[Conrad]

Constitution didn't make his debut until Jan 11th.
I would need way more than 30-1 in the Derby future to buck a 130+ yr old trend

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

You may want to watch it again. Or not. I couldn't care any less. He draws perfectly in Post 4 - Pletcher's comments for Saturday:

He's doing very well,” Pletcher said. “We're very pleased with the way he's coming into the race. I'm happy with post 4. We're outside of Wildcat Red and inside of General a Rod, so we're looking for a forwardly placed position. We'll play it off the break and let Javier (Castellano) make that decision as things unfold.”

If he were obvious he wouldn't be 30-1, Joe. And you won't get near that afterward - that's why I said it was the best value play in the field.

I get it. You like him Saturday, so that makes him a value play at 30-1. I think Cairo Prince lays over this field. The only value I can hope for is that your horse gets bet in exotics and Prince is not as big a favorite in the pick 3 and pick 4 that he should be.

[bare it all]

I think General a Rod could be value if he stays at or floats up from 30-1. If Cairo Prince flops in the Fl Derby and this horse runs another good one, he could be a legit contender on Derby Day.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I get it. You like him Saturday, so that makes him a value play at 30-1. I think Cairo Prince lays over this field. The only value I can hope for is that your horse gets bet in exotics and Prince is not as big a favorite in the pick 3 and pick 4 that he should be.

I haven't really begun to look at this race yet but pacewise, he looks as though he can sit a preferable trip and if he is as good as advertised (figurewise - if you can trust BRIS - there was not much at all between CP's Holy Bull {104}
and Constitution's last {103)}.
Additionally, he's one of a few from the FL route to the Derby that has a shot at getting 1 1/4th. So yes, locking in 30-1 is a steal if you can get it because if he wins (and I believe he has every chance) He would have to be considered one of 3 or 4 prohibitive favorites, thus 30-1 or anything close will be a dream. Where, conversely, taking 6-1 on Cairo Prince would be insane.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

You may want to watch it again. Or not. I couldn't care any less. He draws perfectly in Post 4 - Pletcher's comments for Saturday:

He's doing very well,” Pletcher said. “We're very pleased with the way he's coming into the race. I'm happy with post 4. We're outside of Wildcat Red and inside of General a Rod, so we're looking for a forwardly placed position. We'll play it off the break and let Javier (Castellano) make that decision as things unfold.”

If he were obvious he wouldn't be 30-1, Joe. And you won't get near that afterward - that's why I said it was the best value play in the field.

Joesph - I hope you seriously considered taking 19-1 before the race. Not trying to rub it in. He's going to be 5-1 or less if he fortunate enough to make it to the Derby and looks like he's only going to get better with the extra panel.

[tanner12oz]

I dont think for 1 second he will be 5-1 or under...your serious right?