Ateam's Saratoga $100 play-a-day

[ateamstupid]

Thursday, August 15

Early Pick 4:

3rd: #3 Pure Sensation clearly the horse to beat off his debut, when he dueled 3-wide with returning Saratoga Special winner Corfu through an extremely fast pace and never quit trying, finishing just a half-length back at the wire. He figures to blast out of the gate, hug the rail and put on a strong 5-furlong speed display. The other horse I'd consider is #9 Aarons Orient out of the same race, but he was clearly inferior to Pure Sensation that day. The only possible excuse I can give him is he didn't like being in between horses and drawing outside today, could sit a more comfortable trip.

4th: #1 Sneaky Blowout, #7 All That and #8 Brabbham are all very logical, but I'll also include #4 Rap d'Oro, who ran two very good races over the winter before a poor grass try and a disastrous run behind Moreno on the Belmont undercard. Hushion is always to be respected and if the layoff has straightened Rap d'Oro out, he's very dangerous at a good number.

5th: Nothing wrong with M/L favorite #3 Flowing Mane, but it's not as if he's significantly faster than these and there are several other options. #5 Mr. Starr's Report is a typical Jack Fisher longshot, with competitive races on the go-back and a useful prep at CNL last time out, reaching out to Lezcano is a good sign. #6 Summer Sands has a good turf pedigree and #9 Mr Algebra and #10 Saved the Best are both logical.

6th: #5 Much Stronger the clear horse to beat and I'll press with him, but he comes off a perfect-trip win going shorter and is facing a tougher group this time. He's also had problems with bearing out in the past. I like #8 Jumpinofftheedge at a big price. His debut was an enormous effort for a Phil Serpe 1st time starter and in his 2nd race, he chased an eye-popping pace set by Willy Elliott; lands in a race today with much less speed and could draw a great trip from the outside. #3 Ration chased a fast pace while wide last time out and ran better than it looks on paper. If there is a meltdown, #4 Perilous Indian could benefit, stretching out a furlong after a good close against some nice 3YO sprinters last time out.

$.50 3,9/1,4,7,8/3,5,6,9,10/3,4,5,8 $80
$1 3/1,4,7,8/3,5,6,9,10/5 $20

[pointman]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Thursday, August 15

Early Pick 4:

3rd: #3 Pure Sensation clearly the horse to beat off his debut, when he dueled 3-wide with returning Saratoga Special winner Corfu through an extremely fast pace and never quit trying, finishing just a half-length back at the wire. He figures to blast out of the gate, hug the rail and put on a strong 5-furlong speed display. The other horse I'd consider is #9 Aarons Orient out of the same race, but he was clearly inferior to Pure Sensation that day. The only possible excuse I can give him is he didn't like being in between horses and drawing outside today, could sit a more comfortable trip.

4th: #1 Sneaky Blowout, #7 All That and #8 Brabbham are all very logical, but I'll also include #4 Rap d'Oro, who ran two very good races over the winter before a poor grass try and a disastrous run behind Moreno on the Belmont undercard. Hushion is always to be respected and if the layoff has straightened Rap d'Oro out, he's very dangerous at a good number.

5th: Nothing wrong with M/L favorite #3 Flowing Mane, but it's not as if he's significantly faster than these and there are several other options. #5 Mr. Starr's Report is a typical Jack Fisher longshot, with competitive races on the go-back and a useful prep at CNL last time out, reaching out to Lezcano is a good sign. #6 Summer Sands has a good turf pedigree and #9 Mr Algebra and #10 Saved the Best are both logical.

6th: #5 Much Stronger the clear horse to beat and I'll press with him, but he comes off a perfect-trip win going shorter and is facing a tougher group this time. He's also had problems with bearing out in the past. I like #8 Jumpinofftheedge at a big price. His debut was an enormous effort for a Phil Serpe 1st time starter and in his 2nd race, he chased an eye-popping pace set by Willy Elliott; lands in a race today with much less speed and could draw a great trip from the outside. #3 Ration chased a fast pace while wide last time out and ran better than it looks on paper. If there is a meltdown, #4 Perilous Indian could benefit, stretching out a furlong after a good close against some nice 3YO sprinters last time out.

$.50 3,9/1,4,7,8/3,5,6,9,10/3,4,5,8 $80
$1 3/1,4,7,8/3,5,6,9,10/5 $20

Joey, excellent anaylsis as usual. I am very much with you on Mr. Starr's Report who has back races that beat this field and will be betting to win. What did you think of the 6 in the 6th, Two T's at Two B's? I thought that horse has a very live look.

Good Luck today, keep up the great work!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pointman

Joey, excellent anaylsis as usual. I am very much with you on Mr. Starr's Report who has back races that beat this field and will be betting to win. What did you think of the 6 in the 6th, Two T's at Two B's? I thought that horse has a very live look.

Good Luck today, keep up the great work!

Thanks, Nick. He's certainly not out of it and is dropping in class, but I didn't like that his only fast race came when he was up on the pace in that Speak Logistics Calder merry-go-round race where the speed held together.

Beautiful; Lezcano put those idiots to sleep early. How's Jack Fisher's ROI this meeting (flats and jumps)?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Thursday, August 15

Early Pick 4:

3rd: #3 Pure Sensation clearly the horse to beat off his debut, when he dueled 3-wide with returning Saratoga Special winner Corfu through an extremely fast pace and never quit trying, finishing just a half-length back at the wire. He figures to blast out of the gate, hug the rail and put on a strong 5-furlong speed display. The other horse I'd consider is #9 Aarons Orient out of the same race, but he was clearly inferior to Pure Sensation that day. The only possible excuse I can give him is he didn't like being in between horses and drawing outside today, could sit a more comfortable trip.

4th: #1 Sneaky Blowout, #7 All That and #8 Brabbham are all very logical, but I'll also include #4 Rap d'Oro, who ran two very good races over the winter before a poor grass try and a disastrous run behind Moreno on the Belmont undercard. Hushion is always to be respected and if the layoff has straightened Rap d'Oro out, he's very dangerous at a good number.

5th: Nothing wrong with M/L favorite #3 Flowing Mane, but it's not as if he's significantly faster than these and there are several other options. #5 Mr. Starr's Report is a typical Jack Fisher longshot, with competitive races on the go-back and a useful prep at CNL last time out, reaching out to Lezcano is a good sign. #6 Summer Sands has a good turf pedigree and #9 Mr Algebra and #10 Saved the Best are both logical.

6th: #5 Much Stronger the clear horse to beat and I'll press with him, but he comes off a perfect-trip win going shorter and is facing a tougher group this time. He's also had problems with bearing out in the past. I like #8 Jumpinofftheedge at a big price. His debut was an enormous effort for a Phil Serpe 1st time starter and in his 2nd race, he chased an eye-popping pace set by Willy Elliott; lands in a race today with much less speed and could draw a great trip from the outside. #3 Ration chased a fast pace while wide last time out and ran better than it looks on paper. If there is a meltdown, #4 Perilous Indian could benefit, stretching out a furlong after a good close against some nice 3YO sprinters last time out.

$.50 3,9/1,4,7,8/3,5,6,9,10/3,4,5,8 $80
$1 3/1,4,7,8/3,5,6,9,10/5 $20

$.50 Pick 4 pays $378

Lousy beat Nick, Two T's at Two B was clearly best.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

$.50 Pick 4 pays $378

Lousy beat Nick, Two T's at Two B was clearly best.

Thanks, Joey. That stung like you wouldn't believe, had live win, double to the 6.

Nice job!

I am no fan of Merill Scherer, but the 1 looks live to me in the 8th.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pointman

Thanks, Joey. That stung like you wouldn't believe, had live win, double to the 6.

Nice job!

I am no fan of Merill Scherer, but the 1 looks live to me in the 8th.

I like him a little too, but am worried about him getting fried in a duel with Street Game and/or Abilio.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I like him a little too, but am worried about him getting fried in a duel with Street Game and/or Abilio.

I am thinking that Rosario is smart enough to sit behind Street Game and Abilio and save all the ground. His back numbers are good enough to beat these, and though he had a very long layoff, his first race back indicates to me that whatever injury he had has been resolved. Plus, the only horse Rosario has ridden for Scherer in the last two years came in at 16-1 and it was at the Spa. (I think it may have been the first day of the meet).

[ateamstupid]

Amount Invested: $2,400
Amount Returned: $1,853.37
Net: -$546.63
$2 ROI: $1.55

Late Pick 4:

7th: #2 Coriander the one to beat dropping slightly and cutting back half a panel, but she's proven she's no superstar, so I'm using a few others. #3 Mavourneen faced a much better group off a 268-day layoff last out and has the right to jump forward 2nd time back for Voss. #6 Allie Sweet doesn't have much turf pedigree, but was OK in her debut after a poor start and Castellano stays aboard. #8 Love is Key Kaz took a big jump forward on the TG scale for her last race and will be a good price coming from low-percentage connections.

8th: Can't dismiss any of these. Potential for price looms, as #3 Ballistic Sue could find herself on a lonely lead and #8 Sheza Heartbreaker will be in a spot to make one run, unlike last time when Velasquez found himself on an easy lead and just about crapped his pants.

9th: Tough to get past the 2-4 finishers from the Evan Shipman, #6 Groomedforvictory and #7 Awesome Vision, as they both ran better races than the perfect-trip winner and should be able to turn the tables with fairer trips. I'll use #3 Zetterholm and #4 Bigger is Bettor as C's.

10th: #1 Awakino Cat would have to do something crazy to lose. He lays over this field, particularly after all the scratches.

$1.50 PK4 2,3,6,8/ALL/6,7/1 $84
$.50 PK4 2,3/ALL/3,4/1 $14
Race 6 $1 PK3 4/3/3,8 $2

[ateamstupid]

Ballistic Sue! Way to hang in there.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Amount Invested: $2,400
Amount Returned: $1,853.37
Net: -$546.63
$2 ROI: $1.55

Late Pick 4:

7th: #2 Coriander the one to beat dropping slightly and cutting back half a panel, but she's proven she's no superstar, so I'm using a few others. #3 Mavourneen faced a much better group off a 268-day layoff last out and has the right to jump forward 2nd time back for Voss. #6 Allie Sweet doesn't have much turf pedigree, but was OK in her debut after a poor start and Castellano stays aboard. #8 Love is Key Kaz took a big jump forward on the TG scale for her last race and will be a good price coming from low-percentage connections.

8th: Can't dismiss any of these. Potential for price looms, as #3 Ballistic Sue could find herself on a lonely lead and #8 Sheza Heartbreaker will be in a spot to make one run, unlike last time when Velasquez found himself on an easy lead and just about crapped his pants.

9th: Tough to get past the 2-4 finishers from the Evan Shipman, #6 Groomedforvictory and #7 Awesome Vision, as they both ran better races than the perfect-trip winner and should be able to turn the tables with fairer trips. I'll use #3 Zetterholm and #4 Bigger is Bettor as C's.

10th: #1 Awakino Cat would have to do something crazy to lose. He lays over this field, particularly after all the scratches.

$1.50 PK4 2,3,6,8/ALL/6,7/1 $84
$.50 PK4 2,3/ALL/3,4/1 $14
Race 6 $1 PK3 4/3/3,8 $2

Thanks guys. The worm has turned just in time for a big weekend.

$.50 Pick 4 pays $229 x 3 = $687