Current Derby Odds from Betfair (Top 8 Choices)

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

No...

You should look at the "mid" price. If there's relatively equal money on both sides of the market, like in the case of Nehro, the trading price will end up very close to the middle of the tightest bid/offer (in this case 12.5/19, so 16.) In the situation where there's a lot of money on the offer ("back") side, like in the case of Dialed In ($817 at 4.2 to back versus only $14 at 5.8 to lay and $14 at 6.0 to lay) it's a certainty that the price will trend higher- here, very very likely to be at 5.8+; the reverse is true if there's a lot of money on the bid ("lay") side.

In this specific market, the "back" side is simply where the market makers are seeding the market. It is far lower than what really will trade.

Exactly. Which is why 13/1 on Dance City isn't realistic. Regardless, if you want a bet ON Dance City to be accepted now, you will only get 13/1.