Current Derby Odds from Betfair (Top 8 Choices)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

There is absolutely no liquidity in that market at Betfair right now - and there is nothing going down on the lay side of serious note other than $32 against Toby's Corner at 17.5-to-1 odds.

In terms of what you can get right now if you're looking to back a horse ...

Dialed In: 3.2-to-1 for $817
Uncle Mo: 5.2-to-1 for $237
and so on.

It's stupid to fool around in a market like that - in order to get real value there typically has to be liquidity - which causes everything to tighten.

[justindew]

Yeah, it's definitely not a stable wagering pool at the moment. The odds have changed on a number of the choices since I posted this a few hours ago. Dance City is up to 13-1 now.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'll make him 14/1

[justindew]

It's too bad that Dance City has little chance of making the Derby field. I'd certainly rate his effort yesterday as among the Top 10 or 15 performances on the trail this year.

[randallscott35]

5701 Uncle Mo +625
5702 Dialed In +405
5703 The Factor +2550
5704 Much Macho Man +1215
5705 Soldat +2250
5706 Stay Thirsty +2050
5707 Jaycito +2550
5708 Santiva +4550
5709 Tobys Corner +1615
5711 Sway Away
5714 Brethren
5715 Decisive Moment +4550
5716 Pants on fire +3250
5717 Animal Kingdom +4050
5718 Archarcharch +1415
5719 Twice the appeal +5250
5720 Midnight Interlude +1615
5721 Comma to the top +5250
5723 Nehro +1215
5725 Alternation
5726 Shackleford +2550
5727 Brilliant Speed +3050

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by justindew

It's too bad that Dance City has little chance of making the Derby field. I'd certainly rate his effort yesterday as among the Top 10 or 15 performances on the trail this year.

Great run yesterday from him but that is what happens when people would rather run in allowance races that pay 0 instead of trying a (Fl Derby or other race) where u could have made more cash

[Mike]

Originally Posted by justindew

It's too bad that Dance City has little chance of making the Derby field. I'd certainly rate his effort yesterday as among the Top 10 or 15 performances on the trail this year.

Makes Cal Nation all the more interesting in the Jerome next Saturday

The Derby Fever hunt may not be over, as The Jerome and Coolmore Lexington are both shaping up as interesting races, if not necessarily acting as a Derby prep.

The Jerome has , maybe, Rattlesnake Bridge, and possibly Astrology, along with Cal Nation. The Lexington has Prime Cut, Casino Host and Jaycito

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Mike

Makes Cal Nation all the more interesting in the Jerome next Saturday

These are all developing young horses - without a lot of established form.

You can say that Cal Nation was "flattered" because the horse who narrowly beat him ran very well yesterday - however, the horse who was 3rd in that race was badly outrun next time out.

I do put emphasis on that kind of stuff in certain situations - but not as much in regard to just one other performance from a lightly raced 3yo.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

These are all developing young horses - without a lot of established form.

You can say that Cal Nation was "flattered" because the horse who narrowly beat him ran very well yesterday - however, the horse who was 3rd in that race was badly outrun next time out.

I do put emphasis on that kind of stuff in certain situations - but not as much in regard to just one other performance from a lightly raced 3yo.

Thanks for the response, seems a good lesson, seriously

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

It's too bad that Dance City has little chance of making the Derby field. I'd certainly rate his effort yesterday as among the Top 10 or 15 performances on the trail this year.

Top 10 or 15? You have high standards. I couldn't even come up with 6 "top" performances on the trail this year.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Top 10 or 15? You have high standards. I couldn't even come up with 6 "top" performances on the trail this year.

"Top" is a relative term. And yes you could.

Premier Pegasus' San Felipe
The Factor's San Vicente
The Factor's Rebel
Dialed In's Florida Derby
Shackleford's Florida Derby
Dialed In's Holy Bull (considering it was his 2nd start)
(Maybe) Sway Away's San Vicente

That's 7 that I would rate as "more impressive" than Dance City..

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

"Top" is a relative term. And yes you could.

Premier Pegasus' San Felipe

That's 7 that I would rate as "more impressive" than Dance City..

This one would work in my opinion. Personally, I don't really consider the San Vicente as "on the trail" but if you did then, sure, The Factor's win was a top effort.

I didn't care for the Florida Derby at all but I'd give Shackleford the nod for having run the better race. Dialed In running down the leaders in the Holy Bull was a good race for it being his 2nd start but I wouldn't refer to it as a "top" effort.

Basically, in my opinion, Dance City ran a VERY good race yesterday and has the potential to be a nice 2nd half 3YO.